Over at Oilersnation, I wrote a piece on the Edmonton Oilers disturbingly low PDO rate at even-strength (5v5), and if they ever reached these levels last season. I also looked at each individual players PDO, and which players we can expect better production from going forward. There’s definitely reasons for optimism, but things will need to turn around pretty soon here if the team wants to be a top-end club.

Between November 8 and November 23 last season (games 14-20), the Oilers went 3-4 over seven games and were outscored 7-18. Their PDO was at 0.949 – their lowest point of the season. They came close to that again a few more times over the season, but for the most part were well above that and finished the 2022/23 regular season at 100.6. A team’s shooting percentage and save percentage is going to fluctuate throughout the season – that’s the random nature of hockey. And I doubt the Oilers current rate of scoring and saving goals is going to continue, especially when they have some decent talent on their roster.

The other positive for the Oilers is that they’re underlying shot-share numbers at even-strength, which predicts future results (i.e., goal-share), have been very solid this season. Their Corsi For percentage (a proxy for puck possession) is at 56 percent and their share of Expected Goals (which measures shot quality) sits at 54 percent. Their current goal-share of 35 percent (10 goals for, 18 goals against) should not last long if they can continue out-chancing opponents. But it’s anyone’s guess as to when that will happen.

Sunil Agnihotri/Oilersnation

Full article is at Oilersnation.