One of the key issues for every NHL team is going to be how they keep pace with the rest of the league in terms of offence. We know powerplays are getting more and more potent, generating higher quality chances and having more talent on their rosters. But we’ve also seen a steady growth of offence at even-strength (5v5), which makes up around 80% of the playing time.

In the 2022/23 regular season, teams were averaging 2.58 goals per hour, which is a 19.3% increase from the 2.17 goals per hour teams were averaging seven seasons ago in 2015/16. Expect that to continue growing as goal scoring has increased by an average of 2.6% year-over-year over the last eight seasons. And the key drivers for scoring have been steadily increasing with teams generating higher-quality shots and chances, and constructing rosters with better finishing talent.

Starting with shot metrics, teams were averaging 56.81 shot attempts per hour last season, which is a 5.0% increase from eight seasons ago. Year-over-year, the rate of shot attempts has grown on average by about 0.8% per season, which is similar to the growth in unblocked shot attempts and actual shots on goal. The actual volume of shots really hasn’t grown that much.

What we have seen though is the rate of quality chances increase year-over-year, especially in the last two seasons. In 2021/22, the rate of expected goals, which factors in shot location and shot type, went up by 10.5% from the previous season. And then it went up by 6.1% in 2022/23. Over the last eight seasons, the rate of expected goals has increased by 19.3%, going from 2.23 per hour in 2015/16 to 2.66 in 2022/23.

My guess is that coaching staffs really started to push for more offensive opportunities once fans were allowed back into buildings. The pandemic took a big chunk of team gate revenues and it’s almost as though ownership groups gave direction to build better rosters and play with more offence to grow back their fanbase.

The other factor driving goal-scoring is the steady increase in talent across the league and the elimination of enforcers who took up space on fourth lines. Teams are sprinkling a lot more offence across their roster recognizing that elite players spend most of the game on the bench and team’s need to squeeze out any line-matching advantages to be competitive. And we’re seeing the results.

The average team shooting percentage at even-strength was 7.15% in 2015/16. That’s increased by 14.1% since then with the average shooting percentage currently sitting at 9.14%. The average year-over-year growth over this period has been 3.9%, with a big 9.1% increase happening this recent season.

The fact that teams are implementing tactics to increase their odds of scoring and that the amount of offensive talent is growing every year is massive for the league. The NHL remains a secondary professional sports league in the world and tends to hold itself back from ever growing the game. Plus there’s been a steady decline in sports viewership. But if they can provide a decent on-ice product and start to promote their star players more often, they can be in much better shape.

Data: Natural Stat Trick