Over the course of the season, the Oilers have done a much better job at limiting the numbers of shots and scoring chances against at even-strength (5v5).

Over the first 15 games, the team was allowing 57.2 shot attempts per hour, which was fifth highest in the league and only slightly better than Vancouver and Ottawa in the North division. They were also allowing 42.13 unblocked shot attempts, a proxy for scoring chances, which was eighth highest in the league. This poor defensive play was a key factor in the team allowing the fifth highest rate of goals against (3.07) and why they were fifth in the North division in terms of points percentage.

Thankfully things have turned around since then. Since game 16 in early February, the team has seen their rates of shots and scoring chances drop down to league average levels, with the team allowing a rate of 51.84 shot attempts per hour (a drop of 10.3%) and 39.11 unblocked shot attempts per hour (a drop of 7.7%). And it’s been part of the reason why the team has seen their rate of goals against drop down to 2.09, again closer to league average levels. And it’s been a factor in the team’s resurgence in the standings.

Oilers (5v5)	Corsi Against/60	Fenwick Against/60	Expected Goals Against/60	Goals against/60
Games 1-15	57.20	42.13	2.35	3.07
Games 16-34	51.84	39.11	2.18	2.09
% Change	10.3%	7.7%	7.8%	46.9%

One reason for the Oilers improved defensive numbers has been the play of the depth players. Early on in the season, the team depth was the reason why the Oilers rate of shots and scoring chances were so high and why they were getting badly outscored. Without McDavid or Draisaitl, the Oilers were getting crushed allowing over 61 shot attempts per hour and over 48 unblocked shot attempts per hour. That’s what the worst teams in the leagues typically allow in a season – unacceptable in any situation, especially when you’re not able to generate even close to that much offensively.

Since early February, the Oilers depth players have done significantly better, cutting their rate of shot attempts against per hour by 25% and their rate of unblocked shot attempts by over 30%. And most importantly, and with the help of some improved goaltending, the team is allowing more than half the rate of goals against.

Oilers Depth (5v5)	Corsi Against/60	Fenwick Against/60	Expected Goals Against/60	Goals against/60
Games 1-15	61.79	46.80	2.40	3.97
Games 16-34	49.39	35.01	1.91	1.85
% Change	25.1%	33.7%	25.7%	114.6%

One player who likely played a role in the team’s improved defensive play this season is forward Gaetan Haas. Last season, the team saw a significant drop in shots and scoring chances against when Haas would be on the ice at even-strength. Among the 18 forwards who played at least 100 minutes in 2019/20, Haas ranked in the top three for any on-ice defensive metrics. Offence was completely sacrificed with Haas on the ice as the team didn’t generate much, but his defensive play was valued by the coaching staff as shown by his increased usage this season, especially on the penalty kill.

Haas has played in the past 17 games for the Oilers this season, following a stint on the injured reserve after playing two games in late January. His defensive numbers are pretty much identical to what they were last season. Among 15 forwards who have played at least 100 minutes this season, Haas is first in all defensive categories – including goals against per hour.

With Haas on the ice this season, the Oilers are allowing less than 20 shots against per hour at even-strength, while the team as a whole allows close to 30. He’s clearly the best defensive option among the depth forwards too. If the Oilers don’t have him, McDavid or Draisaitl on the ice, they’ve allowed 27 shots against per hour.

This strong defensive play has also translated well to the penalty kill, where Haas is for the first time in his NHL career getting regular minutes shorthanded. He currently ranks second on the team in average ice-time per game (2:09) among eight forwards (minimum 10 minutes played), and has posted the second lowest on-ice rate of unblocked shot attempts against and shots against – only behind Yamamoto.

What has to be especially pleasing for the coaching staff is Haas’ on-ice rate of goals against per hour – 2.97. He’s only been on the ice for two goals against in his 40 minutes of penalty kill time, a rate which has him seventh in the NHL among 112 forwards who have played at least 40 minutes this season. Keep in mind, the Oilers penalty kill as a whole is currently 20th in the league, allowing over eight goals against per hour and allowing some of the highest rates of shots and scoring chances. So don’t be surprised if Haas plays in every remaining game and sees his overall ice-time increase.

Haas’ defensive success has to make you wonder what the first 15 games could have looked like had he been healthy. He might not generate much offence, but they were clearly in need of defensive help as they were getting outshot at a 2:1 clip early on and crushed on the scoreboard. Also makes you wonder if the Oilers really knew what they had in Haas going into the season, considering they did hand Turris a two year deal to be their depth centerman and a regular option on the penalty kill. We might not know how Haas would have been deployed had he been healthy, but I would assume Turris with his draft pedigree and his familiarity with the head coach would have still received a long look. Classic example of the availability heuristic concept.

Thankfully things have worked out much better recently and the Oilers are back on track. Just remains to be seen how the team evaluates players at the trade deadline and off-season, and if someone like Haas will a contract extension or if another ‘known’ player is brought in.

Data: Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Viz

Related:

• Digging into the depth – The SuperFan (2021, March 16)
• Depth progress – The SuperFan (2021, March 14)
• The Oilers depth forwards are showing signs of life – The SuperFan (2021, February 22)

A big interest for me this season has been the performance and results of the depth forwards. Their numbers were so incredibly poor last season, as the team was outscored 44-73 at even-strength (5v5) without McDavid or Draisaitl on the ice. And that was over the course of about 1,800 minutes, which was 52% of the team’s total ice time. The depth forwards were a big reason why the Oilers had a 47.32% goal-share, one of the worst in the league, and it was clearly a focus for management in the off-season as they tried to add more skill to the roster.

Over the first 30 games, the overall results haven’t been great for the depth forwards. The Oilers have been outscored 19-29 at even-strength without McDavid or Draisaitl on the ice, posting a score-adjusted Corsi For% of 46.16% and a Fenwick For% of 46.88% – pretty similar shot-share numbers to last season. Because Draisaitl and McDavid have been able to play on their own lines for most of the season, the depth forwards have been deployed a lot less, dropping from 51.9% of the team’s total ice time last season to 41.3% this season.

Depth forwards (5v5)	2019/20	2020/21
GP	71	31
TOI%	51.9%	41.3%
CF%	47.27	46.16
FF%	47.82	46.88
xGF%	47.53	45.34
GF-GA	44-73	19-29
GF%	37.61	39.58
SH%	5.57	7.75
SV%	91.51	90.21
PDO	0.971	0.980

However, if you split this 2020/21 season into two parts, we actually see that all of the damage was really done over the first 15 games with things turning around nicely in the 15 games after. And this could be why Ken Holland is feeling better about his depth players (Global News).

2020/21 (5v5)	Games 1-15	Games 16-30
GP	15	15
TOI%	36.4%	46.2%
CF%	40.97	50.46
FF%	41.41	51.20
xGF%	37.67	50.51
GF-GA	8-17	10-10
GF%	32.60	49.27
SH%	8.77	6.82
SV%	88.61	92.72
PDO	0.974	0.995

Not only are the results significantly better in the second half of the season, with the goal-differential going from -9 in the first 15 games to even in the next 15, but the underlying shot share are much improved as well. Their Corsi For% jumped 10 percentage points up to the break-even mark, with their share of scoring chances increasing along with it. The team’s goaltending is playing a big role as well, which is critical considering the lack of finishing talent on the roster. We can probably expect the goal share to fluctuate depending on if and when a skater or goalie runs hot or cold, but at least we know the process behind everything has improved.

What I also found interesting was which defencemen have been deployed with the depth forwards, and some of the adjustments the coaching staff has made from the first 15 games to the second set of 15 games.

Below are the defencemen’s even-strength numbers with the depth forwards in the first 15 games of the season when things went sideways. Included for each defenceman is the proportion of the depth forwards ice time they were on the ice for, along with the shot-share numbers, goal-share, and PDO. What stands out here is that Larsson was the most deployed defenceman with the depth forwards, Russell and Lagesson posted the best shot-share numbers and Bouchard was the only player with a positive goal-share.

Games 1-15	TOI%	CF%	FF%	GF%	SH%	SV%	PDO
Nurse	27.9%	34.8	33.8	27.8	11.2	86.4	0.976
Barrie	28.0%	45.7	45.1	25.9	5.8	86.6	0.923
Larsson	44.8%	39.5	44.0	40.2	12.1	88.5	1.005
Russell	18.0%	53.8	51.2	0.0	0.0	85.3	0.853
Bear	13.8%	36.9	33.7	25.7	8.3	86.8	0.951
Jones	18.1%	39.4	40.7	48.0	10.7	90.9	1.016
Koekkoek	26.5%	32.9	34.5	17.5	4.9	88.8	0.937
Bouchard	8.3%	43.2	36.4	53.4	14.7	94.6	1.093
Lagesson	14.7%	51.7	55.9	100.0	33.5	100.0	1.335

And here’s the same set of metrics for the defencemen for games 16-30 when the results were much better.

Games 16-30	TOI%	CF%	FF%	GF%	SH%	SV%	PDO
Nurse	24.3%	52.4	49.6	41.9	6.4	89.8	0.962
Barrie	18.6%	55.0	53.6	31.8	4.7	86.4	0.911
Larsson	45.8%	46.7	49.4	55.1	9.7	93.5	1.032
Russell	25.0%	47.3	49.3	34.1	3.9	94.3	0.982
Bear	24.4%	51.0	52.2	48.9	6.0	92.8	0.988
Jones	22.9%	53.1	57.9	0.0	0.0	90.8	0.908
Koekkoek	5.5%	46.0	42.3	0.0	0.0	93.0	0.930
Bouchard	15.2%	58.8	56.7	100.0	7.0	100.0	1.070
Lagesson	18.5%	48.1	48.4	82.5	22.5	95.5	1.181

As mentioned above, the depth forwards received a higher proportion of the team’s total ice time at even-strength between games 16-30, going from 36.4% to 46.2%. I think that’s a byproduct of getting better results: score more goals, gain the coaches trust and expect to see more ice time. Plus, the Oilers have been running McDavid with Draisaitl a little more often to get the top lines going.

What I found interesting was the increase or decrease of each defencemen’s proportion of ice time with depth forwards between games 1-15 vs games 16-30.

Players	TOI% Change
Bear	10.58%
Russell	7.07%
Bouchard	6.91%
Jones	4.77%
Lagesson	3.79%
Larsson	0.99%
Nurse	-3.66%
Barrie	-9.42%
Koekkoek	-21.02%

Koekkoek’s injury definitely had an impact on how players were deployed. But it’s interesting to see how the coaching staff deployed Nurse and Barrie even less frequently with the depth forwards, and maintained Larsson as the main defencemen for them. Bear saw his proportion with depth forwards go from 13.8% to 24.4%, a 10.58% increase, the largest in the group. And the coaching staff seems to be showing some trust and confidence in Bouchard and Jones to help the depth forwards generate more offence. And I can’t say I would blame the coaching staff for giving Russell more time with the depth forwards. He did have the best shot-share numbers with them in the first 15 games (53.8%) when the group as a whole was posting a Corsi For% of 40%. There’s also the need to keep him away from McDavid and Draisaitl who both see their Corsi For% take a hit when Russell is deployed with them. Lagesson also had great possession numbers with the depth forwards in the first half of the season, which might be why he’s seen an increase in playing time.

Aside from the deployment changes on defence, and changes to the group of depth forwards (i.e, Turris), there had to have been tactical adjustments as well. I’d be curious to know what those were as the results have been much better recently. I’m also curious to see what lessons the Oilers take from all of this and if they really explore why it took over a month to fix their issues and how exactly it was fixed – was it all luck or did they have an actual strategy in place? The Oilers are in a decent spot in the standings now, but imagine if the depth forwards hadn’t been outscored 8-17 in the first 15 games. It cost them wins and playoff positioning, and it really can’t be ignored especially if they want to be considered a championship contender.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Related:

• The Oilers depth forwards are showing signs of life – The SuperFan (2021, February 22)
• Depth progress – The SuperFan (2021, March 14)

The Edmonton Oilers are half-way through this condensed season, sitting third in the North division with a points percentage of 0.607%, only behind Toronto and Winnipeg. It’s been a nice turnaround from the last time we checked in in early February when the Oilers ranked sixth in the division after 11 games and were struggling at even-strength and on the penalty kill.

Team	GP	W	L	OTL	ROW	Points	Point %	Goal Diff
Toronto	28	19	7	2	19	40	0.714	+27
Winnipeg	26	16	8	2	16	34	0.654	+11
Edmonton	28	17	11	0	17	34	0.607	+10
Montreal	26	12	7	7	12	31	0.596	+17
Calgary	27	12	12	3	11	27	0.500	-8
Vancouver	30	12	16	2	10	26	0.433	-17
Ottawa	29	9	19	1	7	19	0.328	-40

The Oilers overall goal differential has gradually been improving as they’re getting better at controlling the flow of play, spending more time with the puck and getting better goaltending. In early February, they were allowing the third highest rate of goals against in the league, but now they’re closer to league average levels. And they’ve continued being one of the highest scoring teams in the league. They’re not quite at the levels posted by previous top-end teams, but they’re progressing well.

Quick glance into how the Oilers compare against their division rivals at even-strength (5v5). The table below is sorted by points percentage, with a basic heat map applied to the shot-share numbers to see which teams are doing well, and whose results may or may not be sustainable. Note that the shot-share numbers are score and venue adjusted. A description of each metric is at the end of this article.

Nice to see the Oilers improve their Corsi For% from 47.13% in early February to 49.69% today. What’s especially encouraging is that they’ve posted a 52.10% Corsi For% (score and venue adjusted) over their last ten games, which is closer to what top end teams typically finish their seasons with.

Worth noting that it’s been the improved play of the depth forwards that’s helped drive up the team’s shot share numbers. There were signs of progress recently, and it’s nice to see it continue. Without McDavid or Draisaitl on the ice over the last ten games, the Oilers have posted a Corsi For% of 52.56% as well as an Expected Goals For% of 51.07%. Unfortunately this hasn’t translated into an improved goal-share when depth forwards are on the ice, due to their team shooting percentage of 4.17%. Hopefully the Oilers are aware of the need for finishing talent, and can identify potential options – either internally or externally – to squeeze out better results.

As for the rest of the division, it’ll be interesting to see how Winnipeg does over the remaining stretch. They’re posting poor shot-share numbers at even-strength (5v5), allowing one of the highest rates of shots and scoring chances against in the league. And it doesn’t look like they’re riding a PDO wave, as their team shooting percentage and save percentage is around league average levels. Instead, it looks like they’re winning a lot of close games and doing alright on special teams as well, as their powerplay and penalty kill hasn’t been costing them games.

Below is a snapshot of how each North division team is doing on special teams. Starting with actual results, I’ve combined the goal rates for each team’s powerplay and penalty kill, also factoring in shorthanded goals. I’ve also combined the rate of unblocked shot attempts on each team’s powerplay and penalty kill, which can tell us if the team’s success on special teams is sustainable or not.

Team	Combined goal rates	Combined unblocked shot rates
Toronto	2.90	33.85
Montreal	1.53	-8.51
Edmonton	1.45	-3.65
Winnipeg	0.53	-13.81
Vancouver	-0.11	6.88
Calgary	-0.91	-11.53
Ottawa	-4.84	-2.10

For example, the Leafs have the best powerplay in the league and their penalty kill is slightly below league average. Combine the rate of goals for and against on the powerplay and penalty kill, you get 2.90. That’s not bad, but when you look at their combined rate of unblocked shots, you get a sense that there’s a chance that it gets better – especially on the penalty kill where they’re one of the best teams at preventing chances, but not able to get consistent goaltending. Considering their goaltending has been solid at even-strength, you have to wonder if it’s a matter of time before the Leafs start to improve on the penalty kill.

Edmonton is pretty much getting what they deserve on special teams. They’re doing well on the powerplay, generating lots of chances and getting positive results. On the penalty kill, they’re one of the worst at preventing chances, and their actual results are below league average. I suspect Winnipeg could see a hit to their special teams results as they’re breaking even right now, but allowing a high rate of shots on the penalty kill. Maybe goaltending bails them out, but it’s not exactly a recipe for long-term success. The other team to watch is Montreal. They’re getting great results at even-strength, but their special teams is over-performing relative to their underlying shot rates for and against. Prime opportunity for the Oilers to stay ahead of them in the standings as long as their play at even-strength continues to improve and their special teams doesn’t cost them games.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Glossary:

• Points-percentage (Point%) – The total points accumulated divided by the points that were available, including extra time.
• Corsi For percentage (CF%) – The proportion of all the shot attempts the team generated and allowed that the team generated (i.e., Corsi For/(Corsi For + Corsi Against). This is used as a proxy for possession and is the best at predicting a team’s future share of goals (GF%). (Source: Hockey Great Tapes – Draglikepull)
• Fenwick For percentage (FF%) – The proportion of all the unblocked shot attempts the team generated and allowed that the team generated (i.e., Fenwick For/(Fenwick For + Fenwick Against). This is used as a proxy for shot quality and considers shot blocking a repeatable skill.
• Expected Goals For percentage (xGF%) – This is a weighting placed on every unblocked shot based on the probability of the shot becoming a goal. This depends on the type of shot, location and uses historical shot and goals data to come up with the probability for each unblocked shot.
• Goals For percentage (GF%) – The proportion of all the goals that the team scored and allowed that the team generated (i.e., Goals For/(Goals For + Goals Against).
• Shooting percentage (SH%) – The percentage of the team’s shots on goal that became goals (i.e., total goals divided by the total shots on goal).
• Save percentage (SV%) – The percentage of the team’s shots on goal against that were saved (i.e., 1-(totals goals allowed divided by the total shots on goal against)

Spent some time looking at the powerplay last week, so might as well do a check-in on the Edmonton Oilers penalty kill. Especially with trade activity set to pick up ahead of the deadline and the Oilers looking for quality depth players who will likely be promoted as penalty kill options. Canucks forward Brandon Sutter is currently being floated around as an option for Edmonton (Edmonton Journal, The Province).

The Edmonton Oilers penalty kill has allowed 16 goals over 125 minutes this season, a rate of 7.66 goals per hour which ranks 17th in the league and fourth in the North division. The league average rate of goals over the last three seasons has been 7.17, so they haven’t been getting terrible results. In fact, over the last ten games the Oilers have allowed a rate of 5.21 goals against per hour, which is right around what they finished with last season (5.15) that ranked second best in the league.

But make no mistake, the Oilers penalty kill relies heavily on its goaltending. The Oilers have allowed some of the highest rates of shots against in the league this season, second-worst only to the Canadiens in the North division. You can use any of the shot metrics – unblocked shot attempts, scoring chances, high-danger chances – they currently rank bottom ten in the league. Thankfully the goaltending has improved recently on the penalty kill, playing well above league average levels. But it’s in the Oilers best interest to do a better job suppressing shots in the likely event that the goaltending comes back down to earth and the levels they were at earlier in the season.

Worth noting here that despite the reputation for defence, Dave Tippett doesn’t exactly have a long history of penalty kill success. His teams have typically allowed higher than average rates of shots and scoring chances against, but have been bailed out a few times by strong goaltending. It’s interesting to see that the rate of shots against this season aren’t too far off from where they were last season. The only difference is that the goaltending hasn’t been as strong in 2021.

Season	Goals against/60	Fenwick Against/60	Shots against/60
2009/10	5.66 – 6th	77.51 – 24th	54.51 – 19th
2010/11	8.12 – 26th	89.35 – 30th	63.84 – 30th
2011/12	5.20 – 8th	79.6 – 29th	55.62 – 27th
2012/13	7.53 – 22nd	70.24 – 20th	49.63 – 19th
2013/14	7.73 – 27th	77.97 – 22nd	57.36 – 21st
2014/15	8.42 – 29th	86.39 – 30th	62.69 – 30th
2015/16	8.09 – 28th	71.9 – 10th	50.79 – 12th
2016/17	8.29 – 26th	80.98 – 27th	53.84 – 16th
2019/20	5.15 – 2nd	76.28 – 23rd	54.84 – 22nd
2020/21	7.66 – 17th	79.44 – 23rd	59.82 – 24th

The good news is that the Oilers are seeing some progress on the penalty kill this season, as their rate of shots against has gradually been declining recently. Over the last ten games, they have been allowing closer to a league average rate of shots, and that might be due to some adjustments they’ve made to player deployment.

One player who is doing well on the penalty kill is center Gaetan Hass. Since returning from injury, he’s been getting regular playing time shorthanded averaging a little over three minutes a game. He dressed in a couple games in late January (games 11 and 12) missed five more games, but has played in the last six games. In his 24 minutes of total ice-time on the penalty kill, the Oilers have allowed one goal, and have seen their rate of shots against drop down to 37.37 per hour, which is the best on-ice rate on the team among forwards and well below the team rate of 59.82. Below are the on-ice numbers for the Oilers forwards who have played at least ten minutes on the penalty kill this season.

Player	GP	TOI	TOI/GP	FA/60	SA/60	GA/60	On-Ice SV%
Josh Archibald	23	57.37	2.49	79.49	63.8	6.28	90.16
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins	23	49.05	2.13	92.97	67.28	11.01	83.64
Jujhar Khaira	14	32.32	2.31	89.12	61.27	1.86	96.97
Kailer Yamamoto	23	27.07	1.18	55.42	42.12	11.08	73.68
Gaetan Haas	8	24.08	3.01	54.81	37.37	2.49	93.33
Kyle Turris	18	24.03	1.34	87.38	64.91	12.48	80.77
Leon Draisaitl	23	14.18	0.62	80.38	54.99	8.46	84.62
Devin Shore	11	13.18	1.20	109.23	100.13	13.65	86.36

You expect to see the shots against go up when your top penalty killers are on the ice, as they are typically facing the first powerplay units. But it’s still concerning to see the spike in scoring chances against with Nugent-Hopkins or Khaira on the ice. And you can see why Turris has been taken off the penalty kill and healthy-scratched. Not only do the rate of shots against go up with him on the ice (which aligns with his historical numbers), but he’s posted the worst on-ice rate of goals against (12.48 per hour) – something that coaching staff’s are very sensitive to. Haas really stands out here, and it’ll be interesting to see if Tippett trusts him more and more and what the on-ice shot rates are like with additional responsibility.

Below are the on-ice numbers for the defencemen who have played at least ten minutes. The Oilers are seeing an extra ten shots against per hour on the penalty kill with Russell on the ice, which is likely being masked by the stellar goaltending that he has little to do with. Hopefully Jones can emerge as an option to replace him; he’s played just under ten minutes but has been called out for being on the ice for a goal against, even though the rate of shots drops when he’s been on the ice – definitely something to monitor. And aside from Bear who might be dealing with a head injury, the rest of the group is fine, especially Nurse who has seen the most ice time and has posted on-ice rates of shots against below the team average. Curious to see if Lagesson gets more ice time as his numbers have been solid in limited minutes. The team rate of shots against are similar to Haas’ numbers with him on the ice.

Player	GP	TOI	TOI/GP	FA/60	SA/60	GA/60	On-Ice SV%
Darnell Nurse	23	66.98	2.91	75.24	58.22	6.27	89.23
Adam Larsson	23	62.05	2.70	83.16	62.85	8.7	86.15
Slater Koekkoek	17	34.15	2.01	91.36	61.49	8.78	85.71
Kris Russell	15	30.97	2.06	85.25	67.81	7.75	88.57
Ethan Bear	11	21.87	1.99	82.32	68.6	10.98	84.00
William Lagesson	8	14.17	1.77	46.59	38.12	4.24	88.89

Whatever the Oilers do at the trade deadline, it’s imperative that they know what they have on the team before spending assets to fill a need that might not exist. The penalty kill is showing signs of improvement, and in limited minutes there appear to be some good internal options who can help suppress shots and scoring chances against. Another reason why I think the Oilers should look within the organization is because the team’s professional scouting department doesn’t exactly have a strong track record at this point. This is the same group that thought Markus Granlund could help the penalty kill, even though his on-ice impacts were poor. And then they thought Turris could help on the penalty kill, even though his on-ice impacts were poor.

Similar to the goaltending position, the Oilers need to evaluate their evaluation process for forwards before spending any more assets on pro players. Until that happens, they’re better off doing a deeper analysis of their penalty kill, looking for internal options and having the coaching staff work with them.

Data: Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Viz