Comparing Winning Streaks

As a fan, I’m pretty excited to see the Oilers put together a four game winning streak. It doesn’t happen often, so we might as well enjoy the run for as long as we can. Seeing the emergence of Leon Draisaitl and Brandon Davidson, as well as some outstanding performances from Taylor Hall is giving fans some hope that this might be the turning point.

But before we talk about “playoffs” (I think that’s how you spell it), there are some glaring issues that I hope the Oilers can remedy. The team continues to get out shot on a regular basis, with the game against Buffalo being the only exception. Anders NIlsson has played exceptionally well as the starting goalie, but it’s hard to expect him to play at a high level for the rest of the season.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Old Man Strength

The bottom six has been getting a lot of flack for their overall play lately. Anton Lander and Mark Letestu haven’t produced at a level most of us were expecting. Lauri Korpikoski has been inconsistent. And the rest of the group has been a revolving door as the team deals with injuries and call-ups.

But one player who should not be lumped with the depth players that are struggling this season is 34 year old Matt Hendricks.

 I’ll admit, I was very critical of the move when MacTavish acquired him for Devan Dubnyk in January 2014. Really, the Oilers should’ve sent Dubnyk to the minors on a conditioning stint, similar to what the Leafs recently did with Jonathan Bernier. Instead, they sent away a player that they had spent years developing, and who posted very good numbers in the three years leading up to his struggles, for an aging, over-priced winger. I still hate this trade. But I have to admit, Hendricks has shown well this season and remains the lone bright spot in the bottom six.
Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

The Oilers and High Danger Scoring Chances

A few weeks ago, I wrote about how the Oilers were having trouble with high-danger scoring chances (HSC), and how it would be critical for the team to not only limit those, but find a way to generate them. It really stemmed from the loss at home against the Capitals when it seemed that every one of the goals scored were from the slot. The Oilers allowed 13 scoring chances from a dangerous part of the ice that game and paid for it dearly.

After 26 games, the trend continues. The Oilers currently rank 28th in the league when it comes to HSC For%, sitting at 44.5%, ahead of only the Rangers and Panthers. Todd McLellan has mentioned a few times now how important it is to crash the net and find those second chances. And despite the team increasing their volume of shot attempts, they haven’t been able to score nearly as often as they should. The slot area is where 50% of the goals are scored from, with teams averaging about seven high-danger scoring chances per game. The Oilers aren’t anywhere near that.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Hall to the Rescue

The Oilers are struggling mightily at even-strength on this current road trip as the club has only scored two goals, both of which came from Iiro Pakarinenagainst the Red Wings. The top six has been ice-cold over the past three games with only Teddy Purcell notching an assist so far.

In the most recent game, Todd McLellan reunited Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jordan Eberle with Benoit Pouliot, which was a fine idea considering the success they’ve had in the past. This allowed Taylor Hall to stay with Leon Draisaitl, with Teddy Purcell serving as the second winger. There’s obviously some hesitation splitting up Hall and Draisaitl, as the two have demonstrated some good chemistry and the ability to generate scoring chances. The problem is the team isn’t scoring and something has to change for the remaining two games in Pittsburgh and Toronto.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Decisions Looming on Defence

Defenceman Justin Schultz is expected to make his return to the lineup during the current road trip after missing 12 games due to a back injury. Over the course of those 12 games, the club has shown some improvement, but remains at the bottom of the league with only 15 points (as of Wednesday evening).

The team is coming off of disappointing losses to the Capitals and Blackhawks this past week, games in which the Oilers controlled play for stretches and had good chances. What stood out, for me at least, has been the improved play of the defence, which has traditionally been a weak spot for the club. There are still some shaky individual performances, but for the most part, the team appears to be suppressing shots better, and limiting the scoring chances against.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

What’s Going on with Mark Fayne?

I’ve been somewhat perplexed by both the coaching staff’s handling of the veteran defenceman as well as the public perception of Mark Fayne. By eye, he has played reasonably well, good enough to play regular minutes for the Oilers. Fayne has had a history of being a serviceable player, establishing himself in New Jersey before being signed by the Oilers in 2014. He’s in his prime, can play against the oppositions best players and shows well by the majority of the performance metrics.

A quick glance at his underlying numbers confirms what I think of him. He’s not the most offensively gifted player, but the team tends to have the puck when he’s on the ice. This season, the Oilers have received  a higher proportion of scoring chances with Fayne on the ice, and they even get a higher proportion of the high danger chances. He’s definitely improved from last season, but keep in mind we’re only 19 games in.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

The Oilers’ Issue with Faceoffs

In a recent interview on Inside Sports, Oilers assistant coach Jay Woodcroft discussed his clubs poor starts and how faceoffs were something they were working on.  Full interview below:

To be honest, when I recently took a look at  some of the underlying stats from the Oilers first periods, I didn’t pay too much attention to faceoffs. It’s not something that has a significant impact on a team’s possession ratings (Source: Hockey Graphs) and doesn’t really determine the outcome of a game (Source: Arctic Ice Hockey). In the interview above, Woodcroft does talk about the importance of faceoffs and controlling the play, so I figured it’d be worth digging into to see what he and the coaching staff are up against.

Here’s a breakdown of the Oilers faceoff win percentages at even-strength this season broken out by period, along with their league ranking.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Deploying the Youth on Defence

With Oscar Klefbom, Darnell Nurse and Brandon Davidson taking regular shifts on the Oilers blueline this season, I figured this might be some sort of record in the league. What I wanted to find out specifically was what proportion of a team’s defence core’s minutes have been given to players 24 and under so far this season.

My guess was that the Oilers would be near the top of the list. And of course I was wrong. They’re actually 10th in the league.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

What’s Going on with Cam Talbot?

Cam Talbot’s first 10 games as the Oilers starter haven’t been great as he’s currently holding a 89.3% adjusted save percentage. Of the 25 goalies who have played a minimum of 350 minutes at even-strength this season (roughly eight games), Talbot ranks 23rd, only ahead of Sergei Bobrovsky and Chad Johnson(Source: War on Ice)

Before I get into this further, a couple things I want to note:

  • The Oilers need Talbot to provide average goaltending. Doesn’t have to be elite. Just average. And the average adjusted save percentage among goalies with more than 1,300 minutes (roughly 30 games) last season and the season prior were 92.2% and 92.3% respectively.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

What’s Going on with Lander?

The top two lines have been playing extremely well for the Edmonton Oilers. The top line has taken on the top line of opposing teams while the second line led by Connor McDavid, has been producing at an elite rate. Unfortunately, the rest of the forwards have struggled to produce, often getting outshot by opponents and barely generating anything in the offensive zone. Anton Lander has been singled out a number of times now this season by fans and the coaching staff, and for good reason. Following a successful career in the AHL, and showing well in a full-time role last season, the Oilers signed him to a two year, one way contract to solidify the center position. Personally, I was thrilled for the player as well as for the Oilers who have long struggled to have four reliable pivots at any given time.

Thirteen games into the season, it’s a good time to ask what the issue is and really if there are any remedies. By eye, Lander has struggled gaining the zone and often losing puck battles. Expectations of his actual point production should remain modest, since he notched 20 points in 38 games last season, with just over half of those points (11) coming at even-strength.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.