Following last night’s loss to the Lightning, McLellan was asked what forward Zack Kassian was bringing to the team and what the coach’s overall thoughts were regarding his game:

Zack is a pretty honest player. That’s something that I’ve figured out in his three or four games with us. He wants to do things well. He wants to do things right. His power game and his ability to power his way through and play physical is important. Nice to see him get rewarded with a goal tonight. As time goes on here, I can see myself and the coaching staff trusting him more and more. – Todd McLellan (Source: 630 CHED)

Now Kassian has played relatively well in his four games as an Oilers, scoring a goal and an assist so far. Paired with Mark Letestu, Kassian has averaged just over 15 minutes of ice time at even-strength per night and has been a decent possession player (51.45% Corsi For, score adjusted, +0.62 CF Rel). I’m a little surprised that McLellan was musing about trusting him more, so I took a look at the ice time he was getting, who he was going up against, and how he was faring when it came to shot attempts (Source: Natural Stat Trick).

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

After two straight seasons of finishing in the bottom five of the league when it comes to even-strength save percentage, the Oilers acquired Cam Talbot from the New York Rangers and Anders Nilsson from the Chicago Blackhawksthis past summer. The two have done okay, with each have strong performances sporadically. But the team sits second last in the league when it comes team save percentage at even-strength. At first glance, the two goalies look comparable, each starting 22 games and each carrying a below average adjusted save percentage, which factors in shot location (Source: War on Ice). Among the 30 goalies who have played at least 1,000 minutes this season, these two rank near the bottom, with Talbot ranking dead last using this metric. Please note that I chose Adjusted Save % as it factors in team effects (Source).

Looking  into the adjusted save percentage month by month (along with the number of games in parentheses), we see that Talbot has improved, while Nilsson has tailed off a bit. Keep in mind, adjusted save percentage ranged from 89.52 to 94.11 last season among goalies that played over 1,000 minutes, which is about 22 games.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

The Edmonton Oilers are once again sitting near the bottom of the league, securing a messily 8 regulation wins this season. The team ranks 28th in Goals For% at even-strength with a score-adjusted Corsi For% of 47.4% (Source: War on Ice). Definitely not good enough to compete for the playoffs, but it’s been hard to really judge this team because of all the injuries. Losing Connor McDavid has been significant, but the Oilers have also played a number of games without top six players likeNail Yakupov and Benoit Pouliot and Jordan Eberle for stretches. Injuries are always a part of the game, but it’s hard to dismiss when you’re without some key forwards.

Having said that, it’s been the injury to young Oscar Klefbom that has had the biggest impact on the club. Before going down on December 11th, Klefbom was emerging as the Oilers most effective defenceman, surprisingly, to me at least, at both ends of the ice. My C&B colleague Corey Travers had an excellent post on Klefbom soon after his injurydetailing his performance and confirming his ability to play top pairing minutes.

One of the bright spots on defence this season has been the growth and development of the younger players, which includes Oscar Klefbom,Brandon Davidson and Darnell Nurse.  Add in players like Griffin Reinhart,Jordan Oesterle and Dillon Simpson, who continue their development at the AHL level, and the Oilers appear to have a pretty decent future on the blueline.

While Klefbom has established himself as a legitimate top pairing defenceman and Davidson has surpassed expectations playing predominantly bottom pairing minutes, Nurse has struggled this season. He’s playing a significant amount of minutes, including an extended stint on the top pairing with Andrej Sekera, and typically going up against the other team’s top players. While some may argue that this is great for Nurse’s development, he’s posting some alarming underlying numbers that indicate he might be in over his head.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Todd McLellan’s first season as head coach of the Edmonton Oilers has been pretty dreadful thus far. The club has struggled to remain competitive on a consistent basis, with the club now sitting two points away from last place in the league. McLellan is without a doubt a well qualified coach who has the experience necessary to take the Oilers to the next level. Unfortunately for him, the roster has some glaring holes and is now performing at about the same level as season’s prior.

This season, the Oilers have been especially bad  when the score is close (as in the score is within one in the first two periods, or tied in the third). I focus on this game state as it eliminates score effects, as teams alter their strategy, and player deployment, depending on if they are trailing or leading. So far, the Oilers have been outscored 62-38 when the score is close, which is the worst goal differential in the league.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

With the Oilers acquiring 24 year old winger Zack Kassian from Montreal, I figured it’d be wise to look into the player’s history to see what his role could be going forward.

First off, I don’t mind this trade. Mainly because Ben Scrivens gets a legitimate chance to extend his NHL career.  The Oilers also get their goaltending depth sorted out with young Eetu Laurikainen now able to develop in Bakersfield rather than Finland. And as for Kassian, he’s an undervalued asset right now because of his off-ice issues who will have to work his way back into game shape at the AHL level. If he can get himself into consideration for a call-up, he’ll be competing with the current stable of Oilers prospects, and will then have to compete with Lauri Korpikoski, Luke Gazdic and Iiro Pakarinenfor ice time. This isn’t a huge risk at all as Kassian’s contract is up at the end of the season. Now with that aside, and separating our personal issues with him, we can start diving into the numbers.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Edmonton Oilers assistant coach Jay Woodcroft was recently on Inside Sportsdiscussing the clubs overall performance and what areas the staff has been working on with the players, including special teams. A couple comments regarding defencemen Justin Schultz caught my attention.

The one area we continue to emphasize with Justin is the willingness to continue to shoot the puck. The ability to hit the net when you do shoot the puck. And letting him know that, and encouraging him that, when you do shoot that creates offence for everybody. Even if that first shot doesn’t get in, if it gets through, that’s what leads to the second chance or third chance. But it’s vital that that shot gets through from the top. (Source)

I suspected in the off-season, just based on his experience with the San Jose Sharks, that McLellan and his staff would push for the defencemen to shoot more and get a higher proportion of the team’s total shots. The Sharks under McLellan loved dumping the puck in or getting the puck on net once they entered the zone and let all three forwards crash the net looking for rebounds. So it doesn’t surprise me that Schultz is being asked to get more shots on net.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Yesterday, Lowetide and I discussed value contracts and if young Jujhar Khaira could potentially carry one next season as a full-time Oiler. Even though he’s still a prospect, it’s hard not to get excited about a player that theOilers drafted and developed, and who has shown relatively well this season. My take is that he’ll benefit from playing top line minutes in the AHL, especially as players return to the Oilers lineup from injury. Regardless of what happens, Khaira has taken some big steps and will be a prospect to watch going forward.

Now taking a look at current roster, only one contract signed for next season stands out as being troublesome, and that belongs to 29 year old winger Lauri Korpikoski. The Oilers will be paying him $2.5 million this year and next, as he completes a four year, $10 million contract that he originally signed with Arizona.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

With the Oilers powerplay sputtering in recent games, defencemen Justin Schultz is getting a lot more attention from fans and media. The criticism is well deserved. Despite getting the most powerplay minutes among Oiler defencemen every year, and being trumpeted as a powerplay specialist by the team, Schultz has scored 5 powerplay goals and 35 assists over the past four seasons as an Oiler. The most troubling issue is that his last powerplay goal was in the 2013/14 season.

We know from previous research and analysis (Fear the Fin, Pensburgh, Hockey Prospectus), including the original work from the late Tore Purdy, that the best predictor of goal scoring success on the powerplay is the team’s Fenwick For/60 (FF/60), or the rate at which a team can generate unblocked shot attempts. As a point of reference, I plotted every team’s FF/60 and Goals For/60 on the powerplay from the past 7 years below. There are cases where a team does not shoot often and still finds success, but for the most part team’s are not able to sustain that year over year.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

The Oilers have had major problems getting regular production from their bottom six forwards. Taylor Hall and Leon Draisaitl have been on an absolute tear offensively, while Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jordan Eberle have provided the team with quality minutes and appear to be finding their stride. The problem is, if either of these two pairs goes through any sort of slump, or sustains a major injury, there aren’t any reliable options who can play a lot of minutes and find the score sheet.

Now a lot of the frustration has been towards Anton Lander who, after signing a two year deal last summer, has not produced  at an acceptable level, even being benched for one game. Head coach Todd McLellan has mentioned how Lander does the detailed stuff in games, but it hasn’t translated into a single goal 32 games into the season.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.