Pretty great playoff run for the Edmonton Oilers, coming only a couple goals away from a championship. There’s an incredible amount of luck involved with making it this far, so it’s hard to feel overly disappointed in the outcome. Game sevens can go either way. And while the Oilers did everything they could to get to that spot, including outscoring the Panthers 18 to 5 between games four and six, and having the best player in the world on the roster, there were never any guarantees. That’s how life goes sometimes.

The hope now is that the Oilers management and coaching staff can identify and address their weaknesses, many of which were exposed at different points during the playoffs. And put themselves in an even better position to contend for a title next year, and hopefully the year after. It’s going to require a lot of creativity and courage to make improvements for next season. And hopefully the club is ready to be a little more ruthless than the previous general manager, especially when it comes to managing the cap and constructing the roster.

Before getting into specific areas and players, let’s look at the team-level issues that arose during the playoff run. The biggest one being the drop off in even-strength goal scoring when McDavid wasn’t on the ice.

In the 435 minutes with McDavid on the ice, the Oilers posted excellent shot-share numbers and a +14 goal-differential (28 goals for, 14 goals against). But in the 788 minutes without him, the team struggled to outshoot opponents and had a -13 goal-differential (25 goals for, 38 goals against). Because of these poor results, the Oilers as a team finished the post-season with only a +1 goal-differential at even-strength.

Compare these results with the on-ice, off-ice numbers of Crosby when the Penguins won back-to-back cups in 2016 and 2017. In both playoff runs, the Penguins outscored their opponents without their Crosby on the ice at even-strength, posting a +10 goal-differential in 2016 and a +5 goal-differential in 2017, getting 5v5 contributions from across the roster. In the 2016 playoff run, Crosby himself even had a negative on-ice goal-differential. Very possible that this could happen to McDavid in the future, and the Oilers need to recognize and address this very real possibility if they want to increase their odds of winning championships.

Here’s a final summary of how the Oilers skaters performed at even-strength (5v5) during the post-season, split between forwards and defencemen and sorted by time on ice. A basic heatmap has been applied to each metric to show how each skater’s on-ice numbers compared to their teammates.

While the Oilers depth players had some big goals and made a significant contribution on the penalty kill, it’s clear the Oilers need to do a better job at adding skill and finishing talent to their group of forwards. And while I understand why the team might want to bring back guys like Henrique, Janmark and Brown for next season, I don’t think they’ll be able to sustain their success over the long run. All three were posting poor on-ice shot share numbers at even-strength and higher than normal PDO’s. I also wouldn’t quit on guys like McLeod and Foegele. Both struggled at times during the playoffs, but I think it’s obvious they need a first-shot scorer type on their line as neither has consistent finishing ability. Holloway has to be part of the solution next year if he can stay healthy.

The other issue was on the Oilers backend. The Bouchard and Ekholm pairing played at an elite level, regardless of who their linemates were and who they played against. Unfortunately, the Oilers didn’t have a steady second pairing, despite spending significant dollars on those positions. Nurse and Ceci, for the third year in a row, posted terrible on-ice numbers in the post-season, spending a lot of time in their own zone and posting negative goal differentials. Nurse and Ceci’s flaws have been well-documented, yet there was no desire from management to find a solution.

Compounding matters is how much of a negative impact Ceci had on star players during the playoffs, especially on Leon Draisaitl. The two played 126 minutes at even-strength together during the playoffs (and away from McDavid). And in that time, the Oilers posted a Corsi For percentage of 36 percent and an Expected Goals For percentage of only 29%. And their goal-differential together was -6 (a 25 percent goal-share). When Draisaitl was away from Ceci (and McDavid), his on-ice Corsi For percentage shot up to 52 percent and his Expected Goals For percentage was 59 percent. His on-ice goal differential was +2 (a 56 percent goal-share). It’s hard enough for star players to take on tough competition on a nightly basis. Your own players, especially at that cap hit, can’t be another barrier that your stars have to overcome.

And while I did think Broberg took some positive steps in the playoffs and earned some regular playing time next season, I would temper my expectations. He was on the ice for a lot of shots against at even-strength and had one of the highest PDO’s on the team, indicating again that his success in the small sample size might not be sustainable.

It also became very apparent by the final round that the Oilers were dealing with significant injuries across their roster. I understand that the playoffs are a grind and that it’s normal for players to play through injuries. But I do wonder what else management can do to keep players fresh for the playoffs and help them avoid the injuries in the first place. Does it mean aggressively managing the workload of star players, and giving them regular maintenance days during the regular season? Or capping the number of games the goaltender and specific players can play? Or, using Kane as an example, should the team be using the LTIR option more liberally and having better reserve players to take on those minutes? He was clearly hurt during the regular season, but the Oilers were reluctant to take him out of the lineup. And one of the driving factors for the injuries and potential burnout is the terrible start they had this past season. Making up ground in the west is tough, and there were probably times when players needed time off but felt compelled to push through to collect as many standing points as possible.

A lot to look forward to this summer, including the appointment of a new general manager, the draft and free agency. It’s a critical juncture for the franchise when you consider what they accomplished in the playoffs, the lofty expectations, and what the glaring needs are – specifically on the right-defence and the wings up front. A new approach to salary cap management and roster construction is needed to remain competitive. And it has to start right away.

Data: Natural Stat Trick