Had the pleasure of joining host Jessica Ng on CBC Radio Active this evening to talk about the Edmonton Oilers kicking off their training camp and pre-season, as well as the upcoming NHL rule changes that go into effect. Full segment is here: CBC Radio Active (2024, September 23)
Topics we covered:
The Oilers first pre-season win against Winnipeg, and key takeaways from camp so far.
The upcoming NHL rule changes, including the expansion of the coaching challenge, line changes after a dislodged net and new faceoff procedures.
Importance of Kris Knoblauch having a full training camp with the team.
Which roster positions have openings, who is competing for those spots, and the key players to watch.
Big thank you as always to the amazing team at CBC Edmonton for putting the show together.
Joined host Jessica Ng on CBC Radio Active this afternoon to review the Edmonton Oilers’ playoff run and their loss to Florida Panthers in game seven of the Stanley Cup finals. Full segment is here: CBC Radio Active (2024, June 24)
Topics we covered:
The Oilers loss in game seven and what Florida did well against them.
Ice conditions in Florida and the role it might have played in the final round.
Officiating in the playoffs and the tendency to call fewer penalties in games five, six and seven.
Cup hand-off tradition, and what the order could have been if the Oilers had won. But alas!
The big decisions on the horizon for the Oilers, including changes to the front office and roster construction.
Thanks to the CBC team for putting it all together!
I also had the pleasure of joining host Stephen Quinn on CBC Vancouver’s morning program, The Early Edition. Plenty of national coverage of the Oilers playoff run, and it was a cool experience sharing my thoughts with a different market. Full segment is here: CBC The Early Edition (2024, June 24)
Got to be on The Early Edition/CBC Vancouver with Stephen Quinn this morning to talk Oilers and review game seven.https://t.co/fgtDVzPx4R
Joined guest host Doug Dirks on CBC Alberta at Noon along with Dave Waddell from CBC Calgary to talk about the Edmonton Oilers, their playoff run and the first game at home in the finals. It was a great interactive show as we talked a lot about hockey, but also heard from a number of listeners about their personal experiences during the playoffs. Full segment is here: CBC Alberta at Noon (2024, June 13)
Topics we covered:
What went wrong in games one and two in Florida, and what the key factors were.
The general environment around this team, and why there’s plenty of optimism that the Oilers will bounce back.
The play of Stuart Skinner, the pressure he’s in, and what to expect from him.
The pressure around the Edmonton Oilers to win a championship, and the urgency fans are feeling.
The officiating during the playoffs, and the frustration fans are experiencing.
Thanks to the CBC team for putting it all together!
Joined host Jessica Ng on CBC Radio Active this afternoon to preview the Edmonton Oilers game three match against the Florida Panthers. Full segment is here: CBC Radio Active (2024, June 12)
Topics we covered:
The Oilers issues generating offence so far, and how the Panthers have been able to slow them down at even-strength and the powerplay.
The overall play of Stuart Skinner, who is posting an abysmal 85% save percentage against Florida, well below the league average levels (~91%). Skinner needs to be league-average for the Oilers to have a chance this series.
What the Oilers need to address to increase their odds of winning game three and four at home, including looking for favorable matchups with last change on home ice.
Reasons for optimism that the Oilers can get themselves out of this current hole.
Thanks again to the team at CBC Edmonton for putting this all together!
Had the chance to do radio and television for CBC Edmonton this evening to talk about the Edmonton Oilers and their upcoming final round against the Florida Panthers. Full radio segment with Min Dhariwal is here: CBC Radio Active (2024, June 3)
The key drivers for the Oilers success in the post-season, including their star players and their penalty kill.
What went wrong with Dallas and what their main challenges were.
The challenges the Oilers have gone through this season, and what adjustments they made along the way.
The key decisions made by the coaching staff that’s helped pushed the team along, including the goaltending and tweaks to the line combinations.
The emergence of Broberg, and the pressure of being only one of two prospects that have been drafted and developed since Ken Holland became general manager.
The Florida Panthers, their strengths and what’s gotten them this far in the playoffs, two years in a row.
Big thank you to the team at CBC for putting the radio and television segments together!
Had the pleasure of joining host Judy Aldous on CBC’s Alberta at Noon radio program on Friday afternoon. Got to talk Edmonton Oilers, hockey fandom, and much more.
Enjoyed this a lot as I got to spend the full hour on the show and cover a bunch of great topics.
Joined Jessica Ng and Min Dhariwal on CBC Radio Active this evening to preview game three between the Edmonton Oilers and the Los Angeles Kings. Full segment is here: CBC Radio Active (2024, April 26)
Other topics we discussed:
The first two games, what’s gone well and what the challenges have been.
Dylan Holloway’s performance in game two, his NHL journey so far, and the pressure of making an impact as a first round draft pick.
Stuart Skinner’s play, and the issues both teams are having playing defence.
The other series underway in the NHL.
Bob Cole’s passing, his impact to the game, and favorite memories. The Todd Marchant goal in 1997 will always be legendary for me, and Cole was a big part of that.
Couple other notes.
This series between the Oilers and Kings has been a pretty high-event one so far. Both teams had solid defensive numbers in the regular season, with the Oilers ranking fifth best in the league allowing 27.84 shots against per hour (all situations) and the Kings ranking fourth (27.70). But so far this post season, both clubs are allowing some of the highest rates among the playoff teams. Edmonton is at 30.95 shots against per hour and the Kings are at 37.34.
The Kings have scored all nine of their goals at even-strength (5v5). The Oilers only have six, with the other four coming on the powerplay. We know the referees gradually stop making calls as the series progresses, so the Oilers need to figure things out at even-strength.
Among the 19 goalies who have so far played this post-season, Skinner ranks 15th with an 0.857 save percentage (all situations) and Talbot ranks 13th with 0.867. Both goalies played a lot of minutes this regular season, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see them burnout and have their backups come in at some point. They’re good, NHL-caliber goalies, but they’re not going to steal you games in the playoffs.
Talbot has been the better goalie at even-strength so far. Skinner ranks dead last with a goals saved above average (GSAA) of -3.56.
I’m also not overly surprised that the Kings allowed four powerplay goals against in the first two games. While it’s true that they allowed the lowest rate of goals against during the regular season, it was largely driven by their goaltending. The Kings were allowing a higher-than-average rate of shots and scoring chances against all season, so it was a matter of time before they got burnt, especially if their goaltending slipped even slightly.
Had the pleasure of joining host Jessica Ng on CBC Radio Active to talk about the Edmonton Oilers and their upcoming first round playoff series against the Los Angeles Kings. Got to be in studio for this one!
Plenty of success has been had this season for the Edmonton Oilers, who have now won 45 of their 73 games, securing 95 points. Their 0.651 points percentage ranks second in the Pacific division and eighth best in the league.
What’s especially impressive is how often the Oilers have won their games by a decent margin. Their +55 goal differential in all situations ranks sixth best in the league, due in large part to their overall health, the high-end talent up front, their ability to control the flow of play and proportion of scoring chances at even-strength and their success on the powerplay. The overall results this season have looked real and sustainable and should hopefully translate into a long playoff run – especially if their top players can stay healthy and their goaltending holds up.
It’s clear that the team has the talent to do some damage, but how well do they compare with the rest of the league and the other teams contending for a championship this spring?
One way to evaluate a team’s talent level is by looking into the number of clear victories they’ve posted. Clear Victories is a metric that Scott Reynolds analyzed and tracked over a decade ago over at The Copper & Blue and is defined as a win by two goals or more, excluding empty net goals. The key takeaway from Reynolds’ analysis is that clear victories were a better indicator of a team’s true talent level than the team’s overall record. And teams who more often win games by a larger margin tend to have better success in the future. Heading into the post-season this metric can really help identify the teams that have an edge over their competition and if any of the contenders might be considered outliers.
With a lot of help from Ganesh Murdeshwar from PuckIQ, I was able to put the following table together that sorts each NHL team by their points percentage along with the number of clear victories they’ve posted this season. This metric isn’t readily available, so I appreciate the support from Ganesh! You can follow him on X/Twitter at @OilersNerdAlert.
Again, Clear Victories is defined as a win by two or more goals excluding empty net goals. One additional criterion is that the winning team has that goal differential of at least two with three minutes left in the game. This helps avoid the scenarios where an empty net goal is scored earlier in the period (as we know teams are pulling their goalies earlier), or when a penalty results in a goalie pull.
Included in this table is each team’s Clear Victories Percentage (CV%), which is the number of clear victories divided by their total number of games, along with each team’s Clear Losses Percentage (CL%). I’ve also applied a basic heat map to each team’s points percentage and Clear Victories Percentage to see how teams compare with one another, and if there are teams who might be winning a lot but often by a smaller margin.
The top teams when it comes to Clear Victories Percentage this season are Colorado (44.0 percent), Winnipeg (41.3 percent), Vancouver (39.2 percent), Tampa Bay (39.2 percent) and the New York Rangers (38.7 percent). The league average is 29.6 percent. Edmonton ranks eighth in the league and fourth in the Western Conference, with 38.4 percent of their games being clear victories, sitting just behind Carolina and Florida. They’re right where we would expect them to be based on their points percentage, and confirms what we already know – they have the necessary talent. They just trail behind the rest of the contenders. What also sticks out when looking at the Oilers is that they’ve also lost a lot of games by two goals or more, relative to the other top-end teams. A lot of those two-goal losses happened early in the season, but there was that stretch in February where they weren’t playing very well and losing to teams that were below them in the standings.
Dallas sticks out here as well, as they rank second in the league in terms of points percentage, but only tenth overall in terms of clear victories. I didn’t realize that they’d been winning a lot of close games, which is a little concerning heading into the playoffs. They do have decent goaltending, which is obviously going to be a major factor for them. But this analysis indicates that their talent among skaters isn’t as high as what the rest of the contenders have. Winnipeg is another interesting team as they’ve struggled recently, and rank tenth in terms of points percentage. But their proportion of clear victories remains one of the highest, indicating that their roster has the talent that could turn things around pretty quickly. And looking at Vegas, it’s tough to see them having a lot of success in the playoffs when their Clear Victories Percentage ranks 19th in the league. They have been missing some top end players who could (miraculously) come back for the playoffs, but for now, it’s not looking too good.
Tampa Bay is the one club that could do some major damage if they secure a playoff spot. They’ve been on a tear recently, going 8-1-1 in their last ten games. And it comes as no surprise considering the talent and experience they have across their roster. What’s interesting about them is that their Clear Victories Percentage was ninth highest in the league just a few weeks ago, so the signs were there that the team was going to turn things around.
What really stands out from this analysis is that while the Oilers are showing positive signs and can be considered cup contenders, there are a bunch of other talented teams having great seasons as well. Like any other post-season, it will come down to the competitive edges that a team has developed through roster construction, player development and tactics. And it’ll come through in different ways, including scoring depth, goaltending and special teams. For now, we have a good handle on which teams have the talent and can be considered legit contenders. And this should make for a fairly competitive post-season, especially in the Western Conference.
The SuperFan 