After four games, and the Edmonton Oilers up 3-1 in the series against the Los Angeles Kings, I wanted to get a sense of how the teams have compared and what each teams strengths and weaknesses have been across their respective rosters.
Let’s start with even-strength (5v5), where the Kings have the slight edge in results, outscoring the Oilers 10-9. And while the Kings have controlled the total share of shot attempts and unblocked shot attempts, things are a lot closer between the two teams when you factor in shot quality, type and location. The Kings are creating shots from anywhere and everywhere, posting a Corsi For percentage of 53.98 percent. But their expected goal-share of 50.94 percent is only slightly better than Edmonton’s. Maybe the Kings’ shot-volume approach eventually creates more havoc in the Oilers’ zone, puts more pressure on Skinner and the defencemen, and creates more high-danger chances. For now, the Oilers don’t seem to have a problem limiting the Kings and can hopefully put them away soon.
Special teams are where the games are currently being won, as the Oilers have scored eight powerplay goals and allowed zero on the penalty kill. The Kings have only mustered 15 shots in 22 powerplay minutes, while the Oilers have 35 powerplay shots in 19 minutes. The special team’s results haven’t been close, and it doesn’t appear the Kings will be able to turn it around based on their underlying shot metrics.
Below is a breakdown of each player’s on-ice numbers at even-strength in the first four games, sorted by time on ice. I’ve split the table into forwards and defencemen and added a simple heat map to show how each player compares relative to their teammates.
Starting with Edmonton, we see that the top line, featuring Connor McDavid and Zach Hyman, along with the pairing of Evan Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm, have been the drivers. The four have played 41 minutes together at even-strength so far and, as a group, have posted a 55.53 percent Corsi For percentage, a 74.88 (!) Expected Goals For percentage while outscoring the Kings 4-1.
Ekholm and Bouchard have been primarily with the McDavid line, while Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci have been tied to Leon Draisaitl and whoever has been rotating through that second line. In 31 minutes together this series, Nurse, Ceci and Draisaitl have posted a 28.11 Corsi For percentage, a 16.39 Expected Goals For percentage and broken even in terms of goals (1-1). Those are some horrible shot-share numbers together, which makes me think Draisaitl should probably get some more minutes with Ekholm and Bouchard. And have Nurse and Ceci play a little more with McDavid.
Nugent-Hopkins is another player who is struggling at even-strength, posting the worst shots and expected goals differential on the team, and could be one of the reasons the second line is getting caved in so badly. I think it might benefit Draisaitl if he can have McLeod back on his wing to add some speed and puck-retrieval skills, along with Foegele. That trio performed really well in the regular season, and could improve the chances of them outscoring the Kings. But because McLeod is doing an excellent job shutting down the Kings as a center, we probably won’t see him move to wing.
Speaking of which, here’s how the Kings skaters have performed so far at even-strength.
Byfield is posting the best even-strength results in the series with a +6 goal differential. His line has been good at generating shots, but they’re having trouble sustaining pressure and creating better-quality chances. Kopitar is someone to watch, as he’s still looking dangerous after all these years. Kopitar is seeing a lot of the top two lines, but is really feasting on the Draisaitl line and posting an Expected Goals For percentage of 62.24 percent against him in 22 minutes head-to-head. The biggest disappointment for the Kings has to be Dubois, who the Kings spent significant assets to bring in and help get them over the first-round playoff hump. He’s posting the worst shot-share numbers among the Kings, and is a bit of a liability whenever he’s on the ice. What’s worth noting is that he’s spent the majority of his minutes against McLeod, who is again getting trusted by the coaching staff to play against top lines in the post-season and doing an excellent job containing good players.
Data: Natural Stat Trick
Also posted at Oilersnation.
As expected, the Oilers shipped out goalie Devan Dubnyk. This season has not been his best, but Dubnyk did show a vast improvement from the start of the year. He’s an average to good NHL goalie that had to face a ton of shots playing behind a weak defensive team. A lot of the goals he allowed were magnified nightly mainly because the team did not have enough talent to get one back.
I’ve been a fan of his mainly because of the issues he had to deal with developing in the Oilers system. Keep in mind, when Dubnyk completed his junior career, the Oilers did not even have their own farm team. He was stuck scraping minutes on another club’s farm team, which is challenging as other goalies had higher priority for ice time.
Goaltending is one of those positions that I don’t value as highly as others. In my opinion, you need average goaltending behind a solid system and tactics to have success in the league. Goalies are just too difficult to predict. Far too often you hear stories about goalies almost coming out of nowhere to lead their team to success. An example would be Martin Jones in LA or Viktor Fasth in Anaheim. Both were relative unknowns who have put up some decent numbers playing on well structured teams.
Having said all that, I can appreciate MacTavish making a move that he thinks is best for the team. What I don’t understand is the return he got for Dubnyk. I think a couple other posts put it best: From The Copper and Blue:
Hendricks signed a four-year deal with the Predators as a free agent in July of last year; a deal that comes with an annual cap hit of $1.85M. Oh and he’s 32. In 44 games this season he’s scored two goals and added two assists. His 0.09 points/game this season is well of the areer best of 0.32 that he posted in 2010/11, but if you look at the years in between is probably the type of production that should be expected during his time with the Oilers. The fancy stats don’t put him in a much better light either. His Corsi% this season is 42.3%, lowest among Predators forwards. He has had tough zone starts though, second toughest on the team, but even when you account for that the results are not very good. All signs point to a players who belongs, more often than not, on the fourth line.
It seems to me that there was an obvious alternative: send Dubnyk to Oklahoma City. Sure, it stinks for Dubnyk’s career given that he’s probably looking to drag his save percentage above .900 before he becomes a free agent but then Dubnyk’s career is not the Oilers’ problem. If faced with a choice between what’s best for Dubnyk’s career and what’s best for the Oilers, the decision is simple: do what’s best for the Oilers. The Oilers went another way. At the end of the year he goes. The Oilers get nothing in return but then nothing trumps negative something. There are Hendricks’ available for very little every summer who don’t need four year deals at $1.85MM. The Oilers just ate a ton of risk that Hendricks won’t be able to play in the NHL in a year or two for no apparent reason.
Considering the Oilers used a first round pick to select him and that they spent so much time developing him into a legitimate NHL goalie, it’s hard to understand what problem MacTavish was trying to solve with this trade.
Cutting Room
I find it interesting that MacTavish picked up Ben Scrivens, another goalie who spent time in the LA Kings goalie development system. MacTavish had high praise for Jonathan Quick recently and also pursued Jonathan Bernier in the offseason. Should also note that former Oilers goalie Billy Ranford is one of the goalie coaches in Los Angeles.
It’s getting quite tiresome to constantly hear the Oilers pursuing Alberta born players. Before acquiring Scrivens, who just happens to be from Spruce Grove, Cam Ward, a Sherwood Park resident playing in Carolina, was confirmed to be of interest to the Oilers,
Oilers GM Craig MacTavish provided some insight into the state of the Oilers in a recent interview with David Staples of the Edmonton Journal. The interview is broken up into four parts, the first of which can be found over at the Cult of Hockey.
Regarding goaltending, MacTavish revealed his hopes that one of his netminders would provide a “spark”, similar to what Jonathan Quick provided the LA Kings.
Quick developed. And he gave them the spark. He was the guy that gave them the spark that ignited that team. The team still has trouble scoring goals but they really were challenged back that year and it was all based on defence and the play of Jonathan Quick.
I find this point interesting only because LA, even though they were on the verge of a breakout, had some decent defencemen in front of Quick. Not to say that Quick isn’t an elite goalie. But I’d like to see how he would do playing behind the current defence core of the Edmonton Oilers. This also explains why MacTavish was after Jonathan Bernier, who was the backup in Los Angeles and developed in the same system as Quick.
MacTavish also provided strong support for head coach Dallas Eakins.
And I would say, absolutely, yeah. I love the coach. To me, he’s done a lot. There’s been a lot of heavy lifting for him. We’re going to have continuity of coaching going forward, which is going to make a big difference going into next year. It’s the same coaching staff, the same messaging. You know how disruptive it is to change coaches. We’re going to have this continuity of coaching. For me, this guy has got the right balance of supporting the players and holding them accountable. There’s an accountability that like.
Even though Eakins is struggling this year, I think it’s critical that they maintain some consistency behind the bench. I think by the end of next year, if things don’t turn around, MacTavish may have to make a change.
I was pretty skeptical about the Oilers hiring MacTavish. The optics were just terrible as another former player was getting the job based on their alumni status rather than their professional credentials. But since his hiring, MacTavish has completely re-done the roster through some excellent, simple, trades and free agent signings. I really do think the team is heading in the right direction and feel a lot more confidence in him over Steve Tambellini.
Highly recommend the entire interview over at Cult of Hockey.
The Oilers have only three wins in their last ten games. The club is in the midst of a 5-game losing streak and will be hosting the St. Louis Blues this Saturday on Hockey Night in Canada. The way this team is playing, especially defensively and on the powerplay, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the streak continue to finish off 2013. Fun times in Oil Country!
MacTavish and Goalies
Looks like the Oilers will continue rotating between Dubnyk and Bryzgalov until one of them is the clear-cut starter. I’m still hoping Dubnyk can bounce back and reclaim the starter position, but it’s clear that he doesn’t have the confidence of management. Prior to signing Ilya Bryzgalov, the organization had sought other goalies including Ben Bishop from Ottawa back in April and Jonathan Bernier from LA in the summer. Then there were all sorts of rumors about Ryan Miller being of interest to the Oilers in the early part of the season.
Looking back over the years that MacTavish was head coach, he never seemed to have a clear-cut, elite, number one goalie. Tommy Salo was the starter early in MacTavish’s coaching career, but was phased out to make room for Ty Conklin. Conklin never really panned out, and the organization was forced to have a ridiculous goalie rotation in 2005-2006. The Oilers had to deal a first round pick to acquire Roloson who played a big role in getting the Oilers to the finals in 2006. Roloson appeared to be the guy for MacTavish in 2006-2007, but then split playing time with Mathieu Garon the following year. What stands out in this goalie history is that MacTavish never had the luxury of having a solid, consistent, goaltender, and, because of his experience, likely overvalues elite goaltending.
Omark Trade
The Oilers shipped out Linus Omark yesterday to Buffalo in exchange for a 6th round pick. Omark has a tremendous amount of skill that was showcased in the AHL, where he scored 47 points in 46 games and was heavily relied on by the Oklahoma City coaching staff. Stats like that typically indicate the player could put up some decent numbers in the NHL according to Desjardins equivalency calculation. Unfortunately, Omark didn’t get the right opportunity in the NHL, as he was typically brought up for short stints to play empty minutes on the third and fourth line. There’s an abundance of skilled forwards in Edmonton with higher draft pedigrees than Omark, so hopefully he gets a fair shake in Buffalo.
The SuperFan 