Edmonton Oilers

Priming Game: How much does Evan Bouchard mean to the Oilers?

/ sunilagni / Leave a comment

One of the most common questions I got from hockey fans and even non-hockey fans this past summer was whether or not defenceman Evan Bouchard is worth his new four-year, $42 million contract.

It’s obviously a significant sum of money for a player who has often been picked on for his defensive lapses. But there’s also enough evidence to indicate that he’s a solid contributor to the team, and not just with the points he’s consistently put up. Whatever the case, Bouchard is going to serve as yet another good example of how defencemen are often evaluated incorrectly.

In this exercise, we’ll just focus on the player and try to answer a rather simple question: “Is this guy good?”

I’ve learned over the many years that I’ve been covering professional hockey is to try and lay out your criteria before answering open-ended questions like this. It makes it significantly easier as a writer to put together a (hopefully) influential piece. And it can help drive a discussion if people know where the original goal posts are.  “Good” means different things to different people. And the criteria will depend on the player’s role and can also be impacted by key contextual information like the team’s current state and where they are in their path to a championship.

When evaluating defencemen who are on heavier contracts like Bouchard, I have some pretty straight-forward criteria – all of which align with teams winning games.

  • The player must be playing regular minutes against the other team’s top competition at even-strength (5v5).
  • The player must have a positive impact on the team’s shot and scoring chance differentials at even-strength (5v5).
  • The player must have a positive impact when playing with their own team’s depth players, as in when superstar players like McDavid and Draisaitl are on the bench.

What’s missing from here is actual point production. Regarding defencemen, a smart guy once said, “points aren’t offence”. To measure a defenceman’s offensive contributions, it’s better to look at the actions of the player that helped increase the team’s odds of outscoring opponents. And part of that can be captured by reviewing the team’s ability to control the flow of play and scoring chances, which is captured in the criteria above. Points are the by-product and can always be influenced by a team’s shooting percentage and save percentage, making it somewhat difficult to predict as it’s not a repeatable skill. If you’re paying for talent, always pay for their performance, not the results. Pardon the slight digression.

Time on Ice

Evan Bouchard has gradually seen his minutes climb since entering the national league, now averaging 23.5 minutes (all situations) per game as a 25-year-old and establishing himself as a top pairing defenceman. He finished 25th in the league in average ice time per game among defencemen in the 2024/25 regular season.

What’s most impressive has been the gradual increase in his proportion of even-strength minutes against the opposing team’s best players.

.

Based on PuckIQ’s data, Bouchard played just over 29 percent of his total even-strength minutes against elite-level competition last year and almost 32 percent the year before. That has him second on the team behind Matias Ekholm, with whom he regularly partnered on the top pairing, and among the other top pairing defencemen in the league. Bouchard has clearly gained the trust of the coaching staff and has taken these critical minutes away from other struggling players like Nurse, who has seen his share of minutes against elite players drop drastically over the last few years.

The added bonus to all of this is the fact that Bouchard’s on-ice numbers against elite players have been excellent. He posted an on-ice Corsi For percentage of 57 percent this past season against elite competition and 59 percent the season before. Not sure what else you can ask for from a defenceman when they’re helping control the flow of play and keeping the puck away from the opposing team’s best players.

Driving Offence

What we’ve also seen from Bouchard, pretty much every year now, is that when he’s on the ice, the Oilers improve their ability to out-shoot and out-chance opponents. Last season, the Oilers posted an Expected Goal-share of 54.46 percent at even-strength, which was fourth best in the league. Without Bouchard on the ice, this number dropped to 52 percent. But with him, it jumped to about 58 percent. So relative to the team, Bouchard’s on-ice expected goals for percentage was a +5.79.

What’s especially impressive is that this has been the case since he started getting regular minutes, and it doesn’t appear to be slowing down. Whether it’s shot attempts, unblocked shot attempts, or scoring chances, the team sees their numbers consistently improve when he hits the ice.

Have to point out here as well that in those limited games early on his career in the 2018/19 season, Bouchard was showing glimpses of his potential impact. Definitely one of the many missed opportunities by the previous management regimes.

.

Supporting the Depth Players

Now, the obvious rebuttal to these strong on-ice numbers posted by Bouchard is that he gets to play prime minutes with guys like McDavid and Draisaitl, who have their own magic fairy dust. But what’s impressive is that even when Bouchard doesn’t have one or both Glimmer Twins with him, the Oilers’ on-ice numbers are still better than 50 percent.

Last season, when Bouchard was on the ice with the depth forwards (so without McDavid or Draisaitl), the team posted a Corsi For percentage of 56 percent and an Expected Goals For percentage of 50 percent. When the depth players didn’t have Bouchard on the ice with them, these numbers fell below 48 percent. In previous seasons, these numbers were even worse. Bouchard is a big reason why the team has been able to outscore opponents when McDavid and/or Draisaitl are on the bench – an issue that plagued the team for years because of the incompetence of the front office and their inability to build an optimal roster.

Final Thoughts

While the cost to sign Bouchard was high, I would argue that it’s well worth it. He plays, and thrives, against elite opponents. The team consistently does better with him than without him when it comes to controlling the flow of play and scoring chances. And Bouchard has played a significant role in improving the team’s depth scoring.

Obviously, it would have been ideal to bring the cost of the contract down, but that would have required previous management regimes to identify his talents earlier on in his career and take on some risk. But that didn’t happen.

The good news is that Bouchard has a proven track record of being a positive influence on his team’s overall performance – helping drive offence on one end of the rink and keeping the puck away from the other end. He’s going to have his blunders that end up in the back of the net. But you have to remember the real, tangible impacts this player has on the team. And how difficult it would be to replace his exceptional attributes.

Bouchard is going to be a big part of the Oilers’ priming group that’s pushing for a Stanley Cup.

Data: PuckIQ, Natural Stat Trick

Also posted at Oilersnation.

What does Andrew Mangiapane bring to the Oilers?

/ sunilagni / Leave a comment

The Edmonton Oilers made a reasonable bet signing 29-year-old winger Andrew Mangiapane to two-year contract, with an annual average value of $3.6 million. He’s played over 500 NHL regular season and playoff games over his career and posted 257 points. The hope, according to Bowman, is that he fits into the top six at even-strength as a versatile forward and can contribute on the penalty kill.

The one concern with Mangiapane is around his overall point production, which has been steadily decreasing since his 2021-22 season when he finished with 35 goals and 20 assists in all situations as a 25-year-old. He went on to sign his three-year deal that paid him $5.8 million per year in 2022 but was traded after two seasons in 2024 to Washington for a draft pick. Calgary proactively shed the salary of an aging forward heading into free agency and likely recognized that a wrist injury incurred in the 2022-23 season impacted his point production. Mangiapane’s individual rate of shots on goal steadily declined, dropping from about eight shots per hour to below six per hour in the last two seasons.

Below is Mangiapane’s rate of points per hour at even-strength (5v5) by season. Since his high point in the 2021-22 season, his production has dropped by about 40 percent. So, while we may look at his last year in Washington as a down-year, it’s part of an overall trend for the player. One caveat to all of this is that he did play predominantly in the bottom six with guys like Lars Eller and Nic Dowd, which would have impacted his productivity. But it does make you wonder why Washington’s coaching staff never had him higher up in the lineup recognizing what his deficiencies were.

.

While the production hasn’t been great, Mangiapane does have a solid track record now of having a positive influence on his team’s ability to outshoot and outchance opposing teams. So, while the productivity might be gradually slipping as he approaches 30, he’s at least helping his team tilt the ice in terms of puck possession and getting into those critical scoring opportunities. His teams always do better with him on the ice than without him, which indicates he could be a helpful play driver across different game situations.

The table below shows Mangiapane’s on-ice shot-differential numbers relative to his teammates. Being above zero means that Mangiapane outperformed the team average, which is impressive considering how strong his previous teams’ underlying shot-share numbers have been in Calgary and Washington. There has been a decline in these on-ice numbers since his wrist injury in 2022/23, but it hasn’t made Mangiapane any sort of liability on the ice. At least not yet.

.

Considering his strong on-ice shot-share numbers, with and without talented players, Mangiapane should probably get a shot in the top six group to see if his production numbers and on-ice goal-share could bounce back. He’s a good replacement for Viktor Arvidsson, who also has a history of helping his team outshoot and outchance opposing teams. But the Oilers should also consider playing Mangiapane away from the star players to help the bottom six control the flow of play and prevent getting outscored when the top stars are on the bench. It’s a constant battle every year for the Oilers to prevent bad things from happening when the McDavid and Draisaitl are off the ice, and this season will be no different. Mangiapane should be able to alleviate these issues.

One other thing to note is that while Bowman did express his vision to have Mangiapane kill penalties, he only played 12 minutes short-handed last year in Washington. And the year prior to that in Calgary, he was barely a secondary option and didn’t post great numbers as the Flames allowed more shots with him on the ice. Something to consider when evaluating his potential roles this upcoming season and managing expectations.

Data: Natural Stat Trick, PuckPedia

Also posted at Oilersnation.

What the Oilers might lose by moving on from Viktor Arvidsson

/ sunilagni / Leave a comment

Fair to say that the Edmonton Oilers front office will have a busy off-season. After a solid playoff run that again fell short, it’s imperative that they apply a critical lens, identify inefficiencies across the roster, and address the gaps to stay competitive.

Based on Stan Bowman’s recent media availability, it appears that the Oilers forward group will get the most attention from the front office. There’s likely going to be a push to shed some older players and make room on the regular roster for the few young prospects in the system. And there’s also the need to clear up cap space to sign key players such as Evan Bouchard and allocate dollars to address the goaltending.

One forward that the Oilers are currently looking to move on from is winger Viktor Arvidsson, as he’s in the last year of his two-year contract that pays $4 million this upcoming season. Arvidsson has had a solid career thus far, putting up 389 points in 612 games over eleven seasons. But this past regular season, his numbers slipped slightly as he put up 15 goals and 12 assists in 66 games (in all situations). At even-strength, Arvidsson ranked eighth among the Oilers forwards in terms of points per hour with 1.36. This was his lowest output since his rookie season.

.

While it does make some sense to reallocate his dollars to address other parts of the roster, it’s important to highlight what the Oilers will lose if/when they trade Arvidsson away.

The first thing that stands out when assessing Arvidsson is the positive impact he tends to have on his team’s ability to control the flow of play and scoring chances. Consistently over his career, his teams tend to do better with him on the ice than without him when it comes to puck possession and expected goals metrics. This past season, for instance, his on-ice Corsi For percentage (55 percent) and Expected Goals For percentage (56 percent) were both fifth best among Oiler forwards behind McDavid, Hyman, Draisaitl and Podkolzin. More on this in a second.

The table below shows Arvidsson’s on-ice shot-differential numbers relative to his teammates. Being above zero means that Arvidsson typically outperformed the team average, which is impressive considering how strong the Oilers’ underlying shot-share numbers were this past season. This trend has continued since his time in Los Angeles, and there doesn’t appear to be a significant drop-off in his performance just yet.

.

Slotting often into the top-six forward group, Arvidsson also played a chunk of his ice time against elite-level opponents and fared quite well. In 203 minutes at even-strength this season, Arvidsson’s Corsi For percentage against elite players was 57 percent – which ranked third among regular Oiler forwards. His Dangerous Fenwick, which is similar to expected goals, was at 59 percent and also one of the best on the team.

And while Arvidsson did play a lot with Draisaitl (394 minutes) and McDavid (82 minutes) at even-strength and posted great on-ice performance numbers with each of them, he also posted great numbers away from them. In 417 minutes without either of the star players on the ice with him this season, Arvidsson posted an on-ice Corsi For percentage of 53 percent and an Expected Goals For percentage of 51 percent. The actual results were a little lacking (48 percent goal-share, -1 goal differential), but that was also impacted by a lower-than-normal PDO of around 96.

One last thing worth pointing out is Arvidsson’s production in this year’s playoffs. He dressed for only 15 of the 22 games and finished 12th in even-strength ice time among forwards (164 minutes). But he did put up two goals and five assists in these limited minutes, which translates into a rate of 2.55 points per hour. That was the second highest among all Oilers forwards, only behind McDavid.

This isn’t to say Arvidsson is a perfect player — he’s not. But there’s going to be gaps that the Oilers will need to address if/when they move him out. He’s a reliable play driver who can play with and without a team’s best players. He can perform well against top-level competition. And he does have a history of relatively good production. These are things that the Oilers are likely cognizant of and will need to factor in when identifying and/or acquiring their replacement(s).

Teams that are considering acquiring Arvidsson would be getting a solid, experienced NHL winger. One that could help elevate a team’s ability to control the flow of play and increase their odds of outscoring opponents. They’d also be getting Arvidsson in a contract year, which could serve as a motivator for the player to keep his focus and hopefully productivity at the highest level. Arvidsson is also coming off a season where his on-ice PDO was close to 96, indicating that in the right situation, his rate of points could bounce back to his career levels. Definitely a buy-low candidate that could pay dividends for a team in tune with his underlying numbers and the Oilers’ desperation.

Data: Natural Stat Trick, Puck IQ, Puckpedia

Also posted at Oilersnation.

Losing the end game

/ sunilagni / Leave a comment

Disappointing end for the Edmonton Oilers who were defeated soundly by the Florida Panthers. After rolling through the western conference, dominating territorial play, and getting production from across the roster, the Oilers could not keep up with the Panthers. While there were some reasons for optimism after the first four games of the series, all of that was put to rest with the Panthers outscoring Edmonton 10-3 in games five and six. Florida had more high-quality players than Edmonton and controlled every facet of the game.

Here’s how the two teams compared in the final series at even-strength (5v5). The Panthers out-scored Edmonton 16-10 (a 62 percent goal-share), which aligned well with their underlying shot-share numbers. The Panthers titled the ice consistently, pouncing on the Oilers blunders, taking smart risks, sustaining pressure, and generating chances. And it was reflected in their Corsi for percentage (55 percent) and expected goals for percentage (57 percent) – just outstanding numbers which aligned with how they had performed in their first three rounds in the eastern conference.

The only time the Oilers were a threat against the Panthers at even-strength was when McDavid and Draisaitl were on the ice together. They played 70 minutes (about 20 percent of the Oilers total time) and posted a Corsi For percentage of 59 percent and an Expected Goals for percentage of 57 percent – indicating that the Oilers controlled the flow of play and scoring chances. The issue was that they could not finish their chances, scoring only one goal and allowing five against (a goal-share of 16 percent). That’s far below the results we would expect from the top two players in the world, but that’s how things can go in a short tournament.

When the two stars were playing apart from one another (about 80 minutes of ice time), the team could not control the flow of play or scoring chances. And when neither player was on the ice (174 minutes, or 53 percent of the team’s total time), the Oilers were absolutely dreadful. Their Corsi For percentage and Expected goals for percentage were below 40 percent. Florida’s middle order and depth players completely dominated the Oilers and they were lucky to break even in goals. Again, Edmonton did not have enough high-quality players and by the end of the series the club looked gassed. While it was important to add experience to the roster, you could tell throughout the series that the team lacked speed and quick decision-making to handle the Panthers forecheck.

Here’s how the Oilers skaters performed at even-strength in the six games against the Panthers. Only a handful of players posted on-ice shot-share numbers above 50 percent – just a dismal showing.

.

Losing Hyman and having Nugent-Hopkins and Ekholm injured played a big role in the Oilers overall performance and results. But there were a lot of self-inflicted problems as well. In goal, Edmonton knew what they had in Stuart Skinner as he has struggled to provide league-average goaltending for a few seasons now. On the back end, Edmonton knew what they had in Nurse and the negative impact he consistently has on his teammates and their on-ice numbers. And up front, Edmonton knew that more than a few depth players were posting negative on-ice shot-share numbers late in the regular season and in the first few rounds.

Begs the question – was the Oilers general manager ignorant to this information or just negligent?  And knowing that players like Nurse and Kane were struggling and making poor decisions and reads all over the ice, why was the coaching staff giving them more minutes at even-strength?

There are some very fundamental roster-construction strategies that the Oilers need to review this off-season. With a lot of inefficient contracts, aging players and major roster deficiencies, the Oilers have plenty of work to do. But they can’t approach it the same way they’ve done in the past. There has to be a focus on getting younger and quicker and being shrewder with contracts – especially for replacement-level players or those who struggle to have a positive impact on the team’s performance. While there’s a reputational risk of behaving this way, the Oilers have to be more focused on finding better players – not just those with personal connections to management or team personnel. The league is only getting more competitive, and the Oilers haven’t exactly loaded up on impactful prospects to keep pace. So, they’ll need a new approach to roster construction starting this off-season.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

How the Oilers and Panthers compare after the first four games of the finals

/ sunilagni / 1 Comment

It’s been a competitive series so far between the Edmonton Oilers and Florida Panthers, and I don’t think it’d be surprising to see this go to seven games. It’s really going to come down to who makes the most blunders, the timing, and who does a better job at capitalizing on them.

Edmonton has a path to securing a championship here if they can stop taking thoughtless penalties and get some saves on the penalty kill. Over the four games, they’ve done a good job adjusting the lineup and combinations at even-strength, handling Florida’s tactics and getting decent production. Based on their performance and results, they have a good shot at getting to sixteen wins this post-season.

Florida has so far outscored Edmonton 18-14, thanks in large part to their powerplay success. Florida has done slightly better at even-strength (5v5), outscoring Edmonton 9-8. But if you factor in 4v4 time, the goals are even at 10 goals each. On the powerplay, it’s not as though the Panthers are generating a ton of high-quality chances. Their rate of shots has improved in the finals compared to earlier in the post-season, but it’s nothing spectacular. Based on expected goals, they should have only four power play goals. But because of the Oilers shaky goaltending shorthanded, Florida has seven (or three more than expected). And the Oilers powerplay is underperforming slightly based on expected goal models. They should have five powerplay goals, but only have four (and they also allowed a short-handed goal). In summary: the Oilers need their special teams to be better.

Here’s a quick snapshot of how the two teams have performed at even-strength (5v5) after four games. Note that the shot-share metrics are score-adjusted.

Florida is doing a better job at controlling the flow of play, as measured by the Corsi For percentage. But when it comes to scoring chances, it’s a lot closer with Florida having an edge. Edmonton’s lower-than-normal shooting percentage has cost them a goal or two. But their goaltending has saved them a few more than expected at even-strength. The Oilers expected goals against is 11, but they’ve only allowed nine. It’s just on the penalty kill where the Oilers goaltending has been poor. More on that in a minute.

.

And here’s how the Oilers skaters have performed in the final series so far, and what their results have been. The skaters are split between forwards and defencemen, sorted by time on ice and have a heat map applied to show they compare with their teammates.

.

One really encouraging sign is that McDavid and Draisaitl’s results are likely due for a market correction – which would be perfect timing. Both currently have a negative goal-differential despite driving play and spending more time in the offensive zone. Along with Perry and Nugent-Hopkins in the top six, they should be able to convert on more of their chances just based on the skill level they have and the results they’ve posted all season. The middle order of the forwards does need tweaking, and I think the coaching staff has something to work with Henrique and Frederic. They along with J. Skinner could be the right mix, as others like Brown, Janmark and Arvidsson have struggled playing against Florida’s middle order and their systems. I’d also strongly consider fading Kane’s minutes as he’s been a bit of a liability with the penalties he takes and the lack of positive input he’s had on the game. Florida seems to have figured the Oilers depth out, so it doesn’t hurt to make adjustments, especially when a lot of the Oilers forwards have experience playing with one another over the course of the regular season.

On the back end, Bouchard continues to shine with whoever he plays with. Walman and Klingberg have also performed well, but Klingberg’s on-ice results are difficult to ignore. I would expect him back in the lineup after a game-off, especially with Stecher not being able gain the coaching staff’s trust in game four. And not much to add about Nurse as he remains a liability and shouldn’t see top pairing minutes. He’s better suited in a depth role at this point as he tends to drag down the numbers of every Oilers player he’s on the ice with.

And here’s how the Panthers skaters have performed over the four games.

.

The Oilers are doing a decent job at limiting the chances generated by the top line players like Reinhart and Verhaege, as well as Barkov whose performance numbers and results have been poor compared to what we’d expect from him. The Panthers second and third lines, which play a lot against Brown and Kane, as well as Nurse, have really taken advantage to control the flow of play and scoring chances. It’s clear that they’re using this middle order to target the Oilers weakest players. On the back-end, the Oilers should continue to target Forsling and Ekblad, as they tend to be on the ice for a lot of chances against. The Panthers are distributing the ice time quite well amongst the defencemen, but I do wonder if this group will wear out first as they take a lot of hits and haven’t rotated in a seventh defenceman yet.

Here’s how the goalies have performed this series, split by even-strength (5v5) and penalty kill and sorted by goals-saved-above-average. Pickard is giving the Oilers decent/average goaltending, which is more than what Skinner can provide at this point. As mentioned above, the Oilers goaltending has been fine at even-strength. It’s really on the penalty kill where they’ve struggled, with Pickard giving the team a better chance at winning games.

We’ll see what the Oilers coaching staff comes back with in game five in terms of lineup decisions and tactics.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Bearing off

/ sunilagni / 1 Comment

This has to be it, right? The Edmonton Oilers get a second chance to win the Stanley Cup starting on Wednesday night against the Florida Panthers, which should be a very entertaining series. Both clubs have been dominant this post-season, and it felt kind of inevitable that they’d be going at it again. Pip count is near identical, now it comes down to the rolls – and hopefully things swing the Oilers way.

Here’s how the two clubs have done at even-strength this post-season. Both have dominated the scoresheets, each hovering around a near identical 62 percent goal-share. And their success has been supported by strong shot-share numbers – no surprise there.

What stands out here is the fact that the Oilers goaltending has been slightly better at even-strength this post-season, with the Panthers hovering closer to league average levels. Bobrovsky had a solid regular season, ranking 15th among 58 goalies who played at least 1,000 minutes in the regular season with a 91.9 percent save percentage. And a +8.53 goals-saved-above-average. Skinner, meanwhile, ranked 46th in save percentage (90.2 percent) and 48th in GSAA (-8.80). What that tells me is that Bobrovsky put together longer stretches of success in the regular season than Skinner – but it remains to be seen which one can do it first in the finals.

Both teams are also getting good results from across their rosters – scoring goals with and without their star players on the ice. Without one or both of McDavid or Draisaitl at even-strength, so about 50 percent of the team’s total time, the Oilers have posted a goal-share of 67.74 percent (21 goals for, 10 goals against). And on the other side, without one or both of Barkov or Tkachuk, about 46 percent of the team’s total time, the Panthers have also posted an exceptional goal-share of 66.67 percent (20 goals for, 10 against).

Where the Panthers depth players have an edge over Edmonton is their possession numbers, as measured by the Corsi For percentage (i.e., unblocked shot attempts). Edmonton tends to struggle controlling the overall flow of play, especially with Nurse on the ice with the depth players. In those situations (i.e., Nurse without one or both of McDavid or Draisaitl), the results have been good (9 GF/5 GA), but the team’s shot share metrics like Corsi and Expected Goals hover around 45 percent.

Here’s how the Panthers skaters have fared this post-season at even-strength, sorted by ice time, with a basic heat map applied to show how each player compares to their teammates.

While there are some players riding the PDO wave, like the Lundell/Marchand/Luostarinen line (who have been excellent), there are others like Reinhart who have the potential to see their scoring pop at evens. Reinhart’s on-ice shot-share numbers have been excellent, but he has only broken-even in terms of goals. Suspect the Panthers coaching staff will heavily target Darnell Nurse, as well as Henrique, Brown and Janmark. As I wrote recently, the Oilers tend to allow a lot of shots with these players on the ice – a trend that has continued since the regular season.

Should also note that the Panthers powerplay has only been alright. They’ve scored at a rate of 8.47 goals per hour, which is close to what they had in the regular season. They’re struggling to generate shots, sitting at a rate of 38 shots per hour, which is one of the lowest among all teams this post-season, and well below where they were in the regular season. The Panthers penalty kill on the other hand has been excellent. They’ve only allowed seven this post-season (a rate of 3.90 goals against per hour), which is one of the best in the league and half of what they allowed in the regular season. They’ve done an excellent job suppressing shots and making life easier for their goaltender – something the Oilers powerplay will have to figure out right away.

As I said at the top, both clubs have moved into their home boards and are in excellent position to win the game – but it’ll come down to the rolls. A bounce here and there, and hopefully someone getting the hot hand should allow Edmonton to bear off and win their first championship since 1990.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Racing

/ sunilagni / 1 Comment

Couple notes from the first four games of the western conference finals. Ahead in the race to the finals, the Oilers have a massive opportunity tonight to close things off.

  • The Oilers results have been excellent at even-strength, outscoring the Stars 9-3. Shooting percentage is close to 11 percent and the team save percentage is over 96 percent – both well above normal levels for the league and for the team.
  • The Oilers underlying shot-share numbers at even-strength have been fine. While their adjusted Corsi For percentage is at 49 percent and their Expected Goals for percentage has been 47 percent, it’s largely due to the fact that they’ve been leading for about 69 percent of the total time at even-strength.
  • When the score has been within one goal (about 132 minutes of 192 total), the Oilers have posted a Corsi For percentage of just under 53 percent, and an Expected Goals For percentage of 51 percent.
  • Stuart Skinner has arguably been the best player for Edmonton. After a shaky start, and posting shorthanded numbers similar to his career levels, he’s significantly improved. Question remains if he can maintain this level, or if he fades off – similar to what’s happened in the past when he’s playing too many minutes.
  • Oilers powerplay has been great – five goals in about 20 minutes translates to a scoring rate of 14.42 goals per hour. That’s well above what they finished with in the regular season (8.90 per hour) and higher than the best powerplay (Winnipeg had 11.06 goals per hour). The Oilers rate of shots is slightly higher than where they were in the regular season, so it’s too early to panic about their powerplay falling off.
  • The penalty kill results are much better now that the goalie is making saves. Who knew.

Below is how the Oilers skaters have performed at even-strength against the Stars so far.

Couple more notes:

  • It makes a lot of sense to have Stecher take a break. He’s getting a lot of attention for stabilizing Nurse and being a “gamer”. But he’s been on the ice for a lot of shots against relative to his teammates. Nurse has also struggled, but continues to see a lot of ice time. Not sure if Nurse playing with Kulak, which is expected today with Ekholm returning, makes a lot of sense. Their on-ice shot share numbers have been poor in the regular season and in the playoffs.
  • Losing Hyman is massive. The team tends to perform well with him on the ice, regardless of who’s on the ice with him – a rare driver in the league. Kane is going to get more minutes, but I wouldn’t expect him to last long, especially if he’s playing against better competition.
  • That entire bottom six has not been good this round. While the Oilers have outscored the Stars 3-1 at even-strength without McDavid or Draisaitl, their underlying shot share numbers have been dreadful. The team’s Corsi For percentage without one or both of the glimmer twins is at 40 percent and the Expected Goals percentage is at 37 percent.
  • Adding J. Skinner to the forward group would be recommended. Or perhaps moving Nugent-Hopkins to a third line to see if he can help others. In about 15 minutes away from Draisaitl and McDavid this round, RNH’s on-ice shot share numbers have been over 55 percent – he’s been excellent this series.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Goaltending is letting the Edmonton Oilers penalty kill down again

/ sunilagni / 1 Comment

Seeing the Edmonton Oilers get awful goaltending on the penalty kill this round should not be a surprise to anyone. Especially those that follow the team’s regular season numbers.

For two straight seasons now, the Oilers skaters have done a decent job preventing shots and chances against on the penalty kill. The skaters have done their jobs disrupting powerplays, getting in lanes and blocking shots – everything you expect them to do and hear coaches and commentators talk about.

In the 2023/24 regular season, the Oilers allowed the third lowest rate of unblocked shot attempts (67.78 per hour), the fifth lowest rate of shots on goal (49.27) and the third lowest rate of expected goals (6.90). But because their goaltending could only stop 84.68 percent of the shots, which ranked 27th in the league, the penalty kill finished 15th overall in terms of actual goals against. The tactics and process, which a team controls, were solid. The goaltending was not.

Similar things happened in this recent 2024/25 regular season. Again, the skaters allowed some of the lowest rates of shots and chances against in the league – ranking seventh best in unblocked shot attempts (71.08), eighth best in shots against (48.68), and third best in expected goals against (7.48). Despite all of this work and commitment to strong defensive play, the actual results were mediocre with the Oilers ranking 17th in terms of goals against. And this was again caused by poor goaltending, which ranked 23rd in the league (83.70 percent).

Among the 59 goalies who played at least 100 shorthanded minutes over the last two season, Stuart Skinner ranks 40th in save percentage (85.40 percent) and 43rd in goals saved above average (-1.86).

Evaluating a penalty kill is pretty straight-froward. The skaters are responsible for limiting shots and chances against. Goaltenders stop the pucks that get through. You can measure both components with different metrics, and assign accountability – it’s not complicated.

The Oilers penalty kill has been a disaster this post-season. Part of it is the fact that the Oilers are allowing slightly more shots and chances against. But the bigger issue is that in each round, the Oilers have had the some of the worst goaltending save percentages. In the first round, the Oilers team save percentage was the second worst among sixteen teams with 75.00 percent. In the second round, it was the second worst among eight teams with 82.35 percent. And it appears this trend will continue against Dallas in the western conference finals.

Hopefully the goaltending on the penalty kill can straighten out and maybe get closer to the levels it was at last post-season. But based on the goaltending numbers from the last two regular seasons and the last two rounds of this post-season, it’s hard to have confidence. It’s really going to be on the Oilers dominating at even-strength and the powerplay to outscore and mask the penalty kill’s deficiencies.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Timing

/ sunilagni / 1 Comment

Impressive run for the Edmonton Oilers so far, reaching the western conference finals for the third time in four years. And beating two solid teams along the way, including the division champs.

What’s really stood out this post-season are the contributions from across the roster. Especially from the individuals who had been dealing with injuries, and who I thought would be non-factors. That includes Kane and Klingberg, who are coming off major, career-altering surgeries. And Frederic who appeared to be damaged goods at the trade deadline and had a shaky start in the first series against Los Angeles. Glad to see that the bets that management took have worked out so far. The timing of it all has been excellent.

After coming off a regular season where the team posted a -22 goal differential (66 goals for, 88 goals against, a 42.8 percent goal-share ) at five-on-five without McDavid or Draisaitl on the ice, things have certainly turned around. The depth outscored Los Angeles 9-7 (a 56.25 percent goal-share), and outscored Vegas 7-2 (a 77.78 goal-share). Especially impressive has been the fact that their underlying shot-share numbers have improved from the regular season.

(Just waiting on NST to update their team-level data, and I’ll add the supporting details here.)

And here’s how the individual roster players have fared at even-strength (5v5) after the first two rounds of the post-season, sorted by time on ice. We’re dealing with small sample sizes. But the one thing that stands out is the fact that the Oilers have more than one anchor on the blueline that can help drive play and scoring chances without McDavid and Draisaitl on the ice.

Bouchard continues to thrive as he did during the regular season with and without the star players. But in the post-season, we’ve seen the emergence of the Walman/Klingberg pairing that’s been making a lot of positive plays. Both defencemen dealt with injuries at the end of the regular season, so their performances in the post-season have been a pleasant surprise. And it appears their success together (GF) is sustainable. Again, it’s been great timing.

Below are the defensive pairs that the Oilers coaching staff has deployed so far at 5v5, sorted by time-on-ice (minimum 15 minutes played). Think you can feel pretty confident with Bouchard paired with anybody, but Kulak is the best fit. The only tandem the team should really avoid is Nurse-Kulak – they don’t work stylistically statistically, in my opinion. The good news is that both player have success with others, and there are options for the coaching staff depending on the situation and risk-tolerance. Nurse and Stecher are posting good numbers together, and should be the go-to third pairing.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Remembering Brian King

/ sunilagni / Leave a comment

Sad to hear the passing of Brian King, the man behind the popular PDO metric in hockey. Brian was a very influential person in the Edmonton Oilers fan community and had a huge impact on my work and others. I’ve referenced his PDO stat thousands of times on my blog and other outlets, and it’s a wonderful metric that’ll be referenced for a long, long time.

Brian helped shape how fans view and analyze the game of hockey, especially when it comes to evaluating individual players and the ‘puck luck’ they may or may not have. The PDO metric will continue to be referenced when an objective take of the game is needed, something Brian regularly provided online. Combining his metric with other stats and insights has made the game so much more enjoyable for me, and I’m sure for others as well. I’ll always be thankful to him for that.

I had the pleasure of interacting with Brian regularly over the years. He even took the time to talk Oilers and how he got into hockey and stats on my podcast back in 2022. He talked about coming up with PDO in the summer of 2008 while talking about the Oilers decision-making with other like-minded fans on the Irreverent Oiler Fans blog (which was maintained by Vic Ferrari/Tim Barnes). The backstory of PDO is also in Bob McKenzie’s 2014 book Hockey Confidential – something I was just thrilled to see when I first read it.

So while Brian is gone, he definitely won’t be forgotten.

Deepest condolences to Brian’s family and friends, and those feeling his loss.