The Hottest Card on Ice: Reliving the NHL Pro Set Cards

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Pro Set - 1990 Series

Pro Set – 1990 Series

Came across a pile of 1990 Pro Set hockey cards on a recent excursion to Toys R Us. I hadn’t seen the cards in its original packaging since I was a kid, so it was a nice nostalgic feeling.

It was great to relive the feel of the package, the way it tore open so perfectly and that feeling of excitement not knowing what gems would be in the pack.

Hockey card collecting, for me  at least, was one of my first “remix” experiences. You’d spend hours trying to collect cards through trades. But there were a number of  casino games that we’d play using the stats on the back of the cards. We checked out All online casinos in Canada reviewed by CasinoGuides.ca. The actual value and maintenance of the cards were never really considered, so we didn’t hesitate shuffling a deck and comparing stats.

I’m sure Toys R Us didn’t just happen to find a pile of these kicking around. Seem a little more calculated than that since they know the kids who collected these cards are parents now.

 

 

Hockey Analytics: The new wave of information and the online fan community that is driving the field

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In case you missed it, the Communications and Technology graduate program at the University of Alberta hosted a public lecture on hockey analytics this afternoon in Edmonton.

        Link to full lecture on Livestream

        Event details including speaker bios

We had a great turnout in the classroom with people of various backgrounds in attendance. Along with hockey fans, there were members of the U of A faculty, students, bloggers and even employees of the Edmonton Oilers in the classroom.

I want to thank Michael Parkatti for his in-depth presentation of hockey analytics. Michael’s contributions to the field of hockey analytics have been extremely valuable and he continues to track game stats on his blog, Boys on the Bus. I really hope people left the session with not only a better understanding of hockey analytics, but also an appreciation for the work fans have done online.

My main motivation for putting this session together was to promote the field of hockey analytics and really showcase the kind of work hockey fans are doing online. Hockey analytics is still many years behind other sports in terms of tracking and collecting data. But there really is a lot of potential for continued growth and development of hockey information.

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Gold!

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Sochi 2014

Sochi 2014

Well, that was fun.

It was nice to be reminded what meaningful hockey looks like. I thought the tournament was a great showcase for hockey, and really highlighted the skill and speed of the game. No useless pushing and shoving after the whistle. No meaningless fights. Just hockey.

A gold for Canada was expected, but with excellent goaltending apparent across the tournament, along with a knock-out format, anything could’ve happened. Thankfully Canada can boast back-to-back gold medals and move on from all the hype and gossip that lead up to the Olympics.

A personal highlight for me was watching Teemu Selanne play his final tournament for Finland and win bronze. The 42 year old has had such a remarkable career and continues to play well as he gets older. He, along with Martin St. Louis, are great examples of age being just a number. I can’t imagine the work they do to keep doing what they do. Just unreal.

And now, back to the grind of being an Oilers fan. Last I checked, they won five of their last seven, Ben Scrivens was playing well, and the team is destined to ship out real NHL players for draft picks.

Recommended Links

Welcome….To The Machine – Black Dog Hates Skunks

Free Public Lecture on Hockey Analytics

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Happy to announce that I’ve put together a short public lecture on hockey analytics, scheduled for  Wednesday March 26th at the University of Alberta.

Here’s the general description of the session:

The field of Hockey Analytics continues to gain importance as more stakeholders, including fans and teams, are examining data and developing new ideas regarding the game. With the advancement of communication technology and analytic tools, fans have taken a greater role in developing new methods of measuring team and player performance. New ideas are often communicated and developed amongst fans through blogs, message boards and other social media tools.

I’ll be joined by Michael Parkatti, a hockey analytics blogger at Boys on the Bus . Michael has extensive experience with hockey analytics and will be providing an overview of the field as well as the current concepts.

Scrivens

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Source: Edmonton Oilers

Source: Edmonton Oilers

Unbelievable performance by goaltender Ben Scrivens tonight as the Oilers shutout the powerhouse San Jose Sharks. How the Oilers allowed that many scoring chances and still won the game, a shutout no less, is beyond me.

Scrivens set a new record for most saves in a shutout win with 59 stops. Here’s hoping he can continue playing well and extend the current three-game winning streak.

It can easily be pointed out that the team played horrific defense and allowed way too many quality scoring chances. They really did luck out against one of the top teams in the league.

But in the midst of another losing season, it’s nice to have one of these memorable wins. Lord knows we’ve been burned by a hot goalies enough times, so it’s nice to be on the winning end for once.

Recommended Links

Ben F’n Scrivens!!! – The Copper and Blue

 

 

 

Alumni Council Meeting – Alumni Pride Chapter, Research at UAlberta, Volunteer Events

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ECHAHere’s a quick recap of the topics discussed at the latest Alumni Council meeting.

We learned about a new Alumni Pride Chapter here at the University of Alberta. From the Alumni and Friends website:

We are proposing to develop the Pride Chapter to provide opportunities for sexual and gender minority (LGBTQ) and allied alumni to meet, socialize, and support current students and LGBTQ programs on the U of A campuses. Collectively, we are committed to making the University of Alberta a more welcoming, inclusive and supportive place for all LGBTQ students, faculty and staff.

Dr. Lorne Babiuk, VP of Research at the U of A, provided the Council with some information on his department and answered questions about funding and priorities. To learn more, check out the UAlberta Research & Creative Activities website.

Dr. Babiuk noted that Alumni play a major role in the development of research. Not only can they tap into the many resources and programs available, but they also promote the U of A to those unfamiliar with the great research being done.

Worth noting that the Faculty of Extension continues making major contributions in the research world. For more information about the different institutes and centers, visit the Faculty of Extension website.

Council also discussed new ways to support and encourage volunteerism among Alumni. It’s been amazing to see the volunteer work done by Alumni as well as current students in the community. For more information about how you can get involved and make a difference, check out the Alumni & Friends Volunteer website.

Congrats to Council member, and MACT colleague, Glenn Kubish. His blog article, The Accidental Protester, which was published in New Trail Magazine, received a CASE award. More details can be found on the UAlberta Tumblr site.

Thoughts on the Oilers: Rock Bottom

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katzOilers’ owner Daryl Katz recently released a letter to fans to express his disappointment in yet another losing season. Katz also took the time to express his support of the current management group who have taken a lot of criticism for the team’s awful performance.

The letter, available on the Edmonton Oiler’s website, has already received a very negative reaction, mainly because it lacks any substance. One part of the letter really stands out to me:

I know this will almost certainly be the eighth consecutive year since we made the playoffs. I hate that fact as much as anyone, but the reality is that this is only year four of the rebuild that started when we drafted Taylor Hall. The good news, if you can call it that, is that other teams that committed to fundamental rebuilds went through the same kind of droughts over the same kind of time frames, or longer. That doesn’t make it fun for anyone; it just means we have to stay the course.

Now a lot can made about Katz’s assertion that the re-build is in year four or that the course that they are on is a terrible one. But my main issue is the absolute loser tone the letter takes and how there doesn’t seem to be much urgency. It totally comes across as a message to the sponsors and the ticket holders rather than the entire fanbase. Maybe it’s just me, but as an owner you should demand a lot more, especially when you’ve missed the playoffs for eight straight seasons.

And just when the fans were reeling from this embarrassment, a nice article from The Copper and Blue provided some high level stats on the number of shots the Oilers have taken since 2006.

The Oilers have been outshot by 2,689 shots over than span.  The next closest worst team, the Jets, are 1100 shots better – 2 per game – than the Oilers in 8 years.  The best team in the league by this measure, the Red Wings, have been 6000 shots better, more than 10 per game, than the Oilers.

Fun times in Oil Country!

The Katz letter in a lovely word cloud:

Wordle: Daryl Katz Letter to Fans

Hockey Analytics and Me

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I’ve written extensively about the growth and development of hockey analytics over the past few years and continue to be encouraged by the growing number of people interested in the field. It’s a clear indication that fans are more than passive consumers of the game. They’re clearly engaged and what to apply their own ideas and thoughts to better understand the game.

I’ve recently received a few inquiries about where to get certain stats and explanations of some of the more modern hockey stats available. I’m really no expert in the field, so I typically direct those inquiries to one of the many sites that provide insight into hockey analytics.

The great thing about hockey analytics (or advanced stats) is that it’s an entirely personal thing. Human beings all have unique needs when it comes to information collection and processing. We’ve all developed extensive biases and opinions about the game, that there is no statistic or collection of statistics that will appease everyone. With so much information available to fans, and the rapid development of technology, fans are forced to develop their own methods of processing information and can engage with stats as much or as little as they like.

For me personally, I’ve always liked looking into the stats of a game or of a player. I used to be obsessed with the stats on the back of hockey cards when I was a kid and always looked for basic level stats after a game was done. Growing up as an Oiler fan, you had to look for stats that somehow made your team look bearable. Aside from Doug Weight, there weren’t a lot of standouts in the late nineties, at least from my perspective. So you started to look deeper into stats trying to find something, anything, to give you hope as a fan.

The honest truth is I don’t delve too far deep into stats. The main statistic I’m interested in is shots, scoring chances and shot quality. During and after games, I typically check Twitter to follow a couple bloggers that track these stats.

If you look at the top teams, they get lots of high quality chances and they prevent the other team from getting high quality chances. Seems simple enough to me. Having said that, I’m always interested in seeing what stats are being discussed and developed online. A couple writers that get really deep into the stats with moderate theories, but also provide concise summaries are below, for those that are interested:

If there are additional websites or articles that provide a good introduction to hockey analytics, please comment below.

Dropping Dubnyk

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Source: The Oilers Rig

Source: The Oilers Rig

As expected, the Oilers shipped out goalie Devan Dubnyk. This season has not been his best, but Dubnyk did show a vast improvement from the start of the year. He’s an average to good NHL goalie that had to face a ton of shots playing behind a weak defensive team. A lot of the goals he allowed were magnified nightly mainly because the team did not have enough talent to get one back.

I’ve been a fan of his mainly because of the issues he had to deal with developing in the Oilers system. Keep in mind, when Dubnyk completed his junior career, the Oilers did not even have their own farm team. He was stuck scraping minutes on another club’s farm team, which is challenging as other goalies had higher priority for ice time.

Goaltending is one of those positions that I don’t value as highly as others. In my opinion, you need average goaltending behind a solid system and tactics to have success in the league. Goalies are just too difficult to predict. Far too often you hear stories about goalies almost coming out of nowhere to lead their team to success. An example would be Martin Jones in LA or Viktor Fasth in Anaheim. Both were relative unknowns who have put up some decent numbers playing on well structured teams.

Having said all that, I can appreciate MacTavish making a move that he thinks is best for the team. What I don’t understand is the return he got for Dubnyk. I think a couple other posts put it best: From The Copper and Blue:

Hendricks signed a four-year deal with the Predators as a free agent in July of last year; a deal that comes with an annual cap hit of $1.85M. Oh and he’s 32. In 44 games this season he’s scored two goals and added two assists. His 0.09 points/game this season is well of the areer best of 0.32 that he posted in 2010/11, but if you look at the years in between is probably the type of production that should be expected during his time with the Oilers. The fancy stats don’t put him in a much better light either. His Corsi% this season is 42.3%, lowest among Predators forwards. He has had tough zone starts though, second toughest on the team, but even when you account for that the results are not very good. All signs point to a players who belongs, more often than not, on the fourth line.

From mc79hockey:

It seems to me that there was an obvious alternative: send Dubnyk to Oklahoma City. Sure, it stinks for Dubnyk’s career given that he’s probably looking to drag his save percentage above .900 before he becomes a free agent but then Dubnyk’s career is not the Oilers’ problem. If faced with a choice between what’s best for Dubnyk’s career and what’s best for the Oilers, the decision is simple: do what’s best for the Oilers. The Oilers went another way. At the end of the year he goes. The Oilers get nothing in return but then nothing trumps negative something. There are Hendricks’ available for very little every summer who don’t need four year deals at $1.85MM. The Oilers just ate a ton of risk that Hendricks won’t be able to play in the NHL in a year or two for no apparent reason.

Considering the Oilers used a first round pick to select him and that they spent so much time developing him into a legitimate NHL goalie, it’s hard to understand what problem MacTavish was trying to solve with this trade.

Cutting Room

I find it interesting that MacTavish picked up Ben Scrivens, another goalie who spent time in the LA Kings goalie development system. MacTavish had high praise for Jonathan Quick recently and also pursued Jonathan Bernier in the offseason. Should also note that former Oilers goalie Billy Ranford is one of the goalie coaches in Los Angeles.

It’s getting quite tiresome to constantly hear the Oilers pursuing Alberta born players. Before acquiring Scrivens, who just happens to be from Spruce Grove, Cam Ward, a Sherwood Park resident playing in Carolina, was confirmed to be of interest to the Oilers,

Misleading Information Regarding Nail Yakupov

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The host of the Oilers’ radio broadcast recently tweeted some misleading information regarding sophomore Nail Yakupov.

First off, the plus/minus stat is an extremely poor method of measuring a player’s performance. Yakupov, without a doubt, is struggling this year. With only nine goals, and eight assists so far, it’s clear he’s well off the pace he set last year. But tacking on a statistic that rewards and punishes players who may have nothing to do with the goal scored is just bad reporting. Other factors that can drive a player’s plus minus down include shoddy goaltending, unlucky bounces and empty net goals.

David Staples of Cult of Hockey put together a nice piece on why the plus/minus stat lacks credibility:

In a five year study — compiled through game in, game out video analysis of every goal scored for and against the Edmonton Oilers from 2008 to 2013 — it’s apparent that on goals for, about 70 per cent of the plus marks are correctly assigned to players who make some contribution, major or minor, to the goal. But 30 per cent of the plus marks are awarded to players who make little or no contribution at all to the goal being scored.

Wilkins’ tweet also comes after a game in which Yakupov, I thought, played pretty well. Against the Stars, Yakupov made some great plays, including a couple hits that lead to a nice scoring chance for the Oilers. He set up Gagner late in the game for a decent scoring chance as well.

Bruce McCurdy of Cult of Hockey provided this summary of Yakupov’s game. A lot of positives, but unfortunately they get overshadowed by misleading stats like plus/minus.

#64 Nail Yakupov, 5. Some good, some bad. Proactive without the puck, and was credited with 3 hits and 3 takeaways. Had one good sequence when he hit Sergei Gonchar on the end boards, stole the puck, walked out for a decent backhand shot, then when Gonchar recovered the rebound chased him down and hit him again. Made one nifty steal for an apparent chance only to bobble it away. Later broke his stick on an attempted one-timer of a nice Hemsky set-up. Made a soft pass to a covered Eberle which resulted in the jailbreak on the 2-1 goal that put the Stars ahead to stay. Wound up -2 after being out for the empty-netter as well, which put him at a frigid -30 on the year, by far the worst in the NHL.

I get that Yakupov is struggling, but let’s not suggest he’ll approach the record for worst plus/minus. Keep the reporting fair and put the right information into the right context.

UPDATED:

Reid was kind enough to clarify his comment and provide some context:

+/- can be misleading. Yak did have a decent game Tuesday. A couple of listeners asked if he could break the all-time record. I provided that stat. Never suggested he would approach the record. Rob and I discussed +/- on the call in show. I don’t feel I did any unfair reporting.