Hurry Back Oscar

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The Edmonton Oilers are once again sitting near the bottom of the league, securing a messily 8 regulation wins this season. The team ranks 28th in Goals For% at even-strength with a score-adjusted Corsi For% of 47.4% (Source: War on Ice). Definitely not good enough to compete for the playoffs, but it’s been hard to really judge this team because of all the injuries. Losing Connor McDavid has been significant, but the Oilers have also played a number of games without top six players likeNail Yakupov and Benoit Pouliot and Jordan Eberle for stretches. Injuries are always a part of the game, but it’s hard to dismiss when you’re without some key forwards.

Having said that, it’s been the injury to young Oscar Klefbom that has had the biggest impact on the club. Before going down on December 11th, Klefbom was emerging as the Oilers most effective defenceman, surprisingly, to me at least, at both ends of the ice. My C&B colleague Corey Travers had an excellent post on Klefbom soon after his injurydetailing his performance and confirming his ability to play top pairing minutes.

 I thought it’d be interesting to first see how positive of an impact Klefbom was having on the Oilers’ forwards (the one’s he played at least 100 minutes at even-strength with). And then look at how Klefbom’s absence has impacted the team’s overall defence.
Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Thoughts on the Oilers: Loss against Florida, Retribution, Talbot + Radio Hit

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Joined Lowetide this morning on TSN 1260 to discuss the Oilers. Audio below.

Couple thoughts:

Last night’s game had to have been the third or fourth straight one that was just dreadful to watch. The Oilers cannot sustain any sort of pressure in the offensive zone, rarely picking up rebounds or getting second chances. They may have outshot the Panthers, but they weren’t really a threat around the net. The Oilers are sitting near the bottom of the league when it comes to goals, scoring chances and possession, and I don’t expect much to change until Klefbom and McDavid come back.

 

The hit on Hall was clean in my opinion. I just don’t get why there’s a need for instant retribution, and lacking a quick response is any sort of indication that the team lacks unity or toughness. Hall plays a style that makes him vulnerable to these hits..it’s part of the trade-off to generate offence. If the Oilers want to replace skill with goons, they can’t expect to win. Now if you can find guys that can play physical and have an impact on a nightly basis, and not be a liability, I’m all for it. I’m hoping Khaira can be that guy in a season or two. And I really  wouldn’t spend big money to solve team toughness.

I’m also reminded of this line from Kassian shortly after he broke Gagner’s jaw and the Oilers brought in McIntyre. Loved it.

Also keep in mind that the Sharks management kinda lost their minds last off-season when they thought they needed toughness and signed Mike Brown and John Scott to contracts. Seriously, we should ask Todd McLellan how that worked out for him.

I’m also very interested to see how the team will handle the Cam Talbot contract. He’s been getting better game to game, but it’s hard to judge what his true value is. There’s always that balance between the goalie’s actual value, and how the team perceives his value. The Oilers have already invested two draft picks in him, which really puts Talbot in the driver seat of negotiations. Having said that, the Oilers can point to his record and save percentage and try to portray Nilsson as a candidate for the number one job to drive down the cost. I’ll have to dig into this more, but the three contracts I would point to if I were the Oilers is Martin Jones 3yr/$9M contract with San Jose, Corey Schneider’s 3 yr/$12M contract with the Canucks and Schneider’s 7-year/$42M extension with the Devils. Obviously different situations for each player and team, but based on age and experience, these are the ones I would look at first. Right now, I think Talbot is worth $3.5M per season for four seasons, which would take him through his prime. Based on his play, I don’t think teams will be lining up to sign him as there are always plenty of options in the off-season.

 

Thoughts on the Oilers: Team performance, Nurse, Talbot + Radio Spot

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Joined Lowetide on TSN 1260 on Wednesday morning to discuss the Oilers. Full audio below:

Couple things:

  • After 41 games, the Oilers are sitting at 17-21-3, good for dead last in a very weak Pacific division. The 17 wins ranks them 23rd in the league, but their 8(!) regulation wins is 30th. That to me is an issue. Good teams get things done in regulation and avoid the more luck-driven scenarios like 4v4/3v3 overtime and shootouts.
  • The club has a 47.1 Corsi For% (even-strength, score adjusted – which factors in the score state), which is 25th in the league (Source: War on Ice). The Oilers appeared to make some improvements in November and early December when it came to possession, but that went south pretty fast in recent weeks. As we can see below, their Corsi For% trend at even-strength has remained under 50%, which can be attributed to the significant injuries to Klefbom, McDavid, Eberle and Yakupov, plus the lack of depth on defence.

OilersCorsi

  • Without a doubt, Darnell Nurse has been playing way too high up the depth chart, but I really had no idea his underlying numbers were this bad. I wrote about Nurse’s season so far, and how he compares to other 20 year olds from the past five seasons [Copper & Blue]. I’m still a fan of the player and think he can play at the NHL level today. He’s just not a top pairing player yet. And there’s nothing wrong with that, he’s 20 years old. It’s seriously been reminding me of Ladislav Smid’s first season as an Oiler in 2006. He was also 20 at the time and got a tonne of ice time, despite getting dominated every night by more experienced players. It’s not an ideal situation, so hopefully the Oilers can bring in a at least two legitimate NHL defencemen and allow guys like Nurse to develop at the right pace.
  • If anyone can justify the Oilers keeping Schultz past the trade deadline, I’d love to hear it. Not only has his offence dried up, but he’s clearly not fitting into the coaching staff’s system. In San Jose, a larger proportion of shot attempts came from the blue line compared to the rest of the league. This allowed the forwards to crash the net, make short plays and look for rebounds. As I found a couple weeks ago, Schultz hasn’t been able to get shots on net, having most of his shots blocked or not getting any shots at all. On top of that, Schultz isn’t getting as many high danger scoring chances (chances in close, as defined by War on Ice) as he has in the past, which makes me wonder what his purpose really is. I also found that McLellan isn’t exactly relying on Schultz when the team is down a goal or the game is tied. Graph below is courtesy of Hockey Viz.

Oilers D - deployment-1516-EDM-d

  • Signing Cam Talbot should definitely be on the list of priorities this month. He’s played well for the club, and appears to have shaken off that rocky start which resulted in losing ice time. He has a 90.69 save % (adjusted – which factors in shot location), which isn’t great as it ranks last among goalies with at least 20 games this season. But his save percentage has been trending upwards all season.

TalbotTrend.png

  • I’d be happy if the Oilers could lock him up for 4 seasons at less than $4 million per. I’d prefer to keep the cost low, especially on goalies which tend to be replaceable (outside the elite ones) every summer. Talbot and his agent really do have full control in negotiations, as the Oilers have already invested two draft picks to acquire him and would be foolish to let him walk on July 1st. I’m hoping the fact that Talbot hasn’t started 100 NHL games yet and that there’s a decent backup in Nilsson on the roster, will drive his asking price down a little.

One quick note: if you have any questions about my work or any feedback, feel free to email me directly: sunilagni23 at gmail dot com.

What to do with Darnell Nurse?

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One of the bright spots on defence this season has been the growth and development of the younger players, which includes Oscar Klefbom,Brandon Davidson and Darnell Nurse.  Add in players like Griffin Reinhart,Jordan Oesterle and Dillon Simpson, who continue their development at the AHL level, and the Oilers appear to have a pretty decent future on the blueline.

While Klefbom has established himself as a legitimate top pairing defenceman and Davidson has surpassed expectations playing predominantly bottom pairing minutes, Nurse has struggled this season. He’s playing a significant amount of minutes, including an extended stint on the top pairing with Andrej Sekera, and typically going up against the other team’s top players. While some may argue that this is great for Nurse’s development, he’s posting some alarming underlying numbers that indicate he might be in over his head.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

The Oilers and Score-Close Situations

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Todd McLellan’s first season as head coach of the Edmonton Oilers has been pretty dreadful thus far. The club has struggled to remain competitive on a consistent basis, with the club now sitting two points away from last place in the league. McLellan is without a doubt a well qualified coach who has the experience necessary to take the Oilers to the next level. Unfortunately for him, the roster has some glaring holes and is now performing at about the same level as season’s prior.

This season, the Oilers have been especially bad  when the score is close (as in the score is within one in the first two periods, or tied in the third). I focus on this game state as it eliminates score effects, as teams alter their strategy, and player deployment, depending on if they are trailing or leading. So far, the Oilers have been outscored 62-38 when the score is close, which is the worst goal differential in the league.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Zack Kassian is an Oiler. Now what?

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With the Oilers acquiring 24 year old winger Zack Kassian from Montreal, I figured it’d be wise to look into the player’s history to see what his role could be going forward.

First off, I don’t mind this trade. Mainly because Ben Scrivens gets a legitimate chance to extend his NHL career.  The Oilers also get their goaltending depth sorted out with young Eetu Laurikainen now able to develop in Bakersfield rather than Finland. And as for Kassian, he’s an undervalued asset right now because of his off-ice issues who will have to work his way back into game shape at the AHL level. If he can get himself into consideration for a call-up, he’ll be competing with the current stable of Oilers prospects, and will then have to compete with Lauri Korpikoski, Luke Gazdic and Iiro Pakarinenfor ice time. This isn’t a huge risk at all as Kassian’s contract is up at the end of the season. Now with that aside, and separating our personal issues with him, we can start diving into the numbers.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Shots Through From the Top

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Edmonton Oilers assistant coach Jay Woodcroft was recently on Inside Sportsdiscussing the clubs overall performance and what areas the staff has been working on with the players, including special teams. A couple comments regarding defencemen Justin Schultz caught my attention.

The one area we continue to emphasize with Justin is the willingness to continue to shoot the puck. The ability to hit the net when you do shoot the puck. And letting him know that, and encouraging him that, when you do shoot that creates offence for everybody. Even if that first shot doesn’t get in, if it gets through, that’s what leads to the second chance or third chance. But it’s vital that that shot gets through from the top. (Source)

I suspected in the off-season, just based on his experience with the San Jose Sharks, that McLellan and his staff would push for the defencemen to shoot more and get a higher proportion of the team’s total shots. The Sharks under McLellan loved dumping the puck in or getting the puck on net once they entered the zone and let all three forwards crash the net looking for rebounds. So it doesn’t surprise me that Schultz is being asked to get more shots on net.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

What to do with Lauri Korpikoski

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Yesterday, Lowetide and I discussed value contracts and if young Jujhar Khaira could potentially carry one next season as a full-time Oiler. Even though he’s still a prospect, it’s hard not to get excited about a player that theOilers drafted and developed, and who has shown relatively well this season. My take is that he’ll benefit from playing top line minutes in the AHL, especially as players return to the Oilers lineup from injury. Regardless of what happens, Khaira has taken some big steps and will be a prospect to watch going forward.

Now taking a look at current roster, only one contract signed for next season stands out as being troublesome, and that belongs to 29 year old winger Lauri Korpikoski. The Oilers will be paying him $2.5 million this year and next, as he completes a four year, $10 million contract that he originally signed with Arizona.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Thoughts on the Oilers: RNH, Winning/Losing Streak and Defence + Radio Hit

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Joined Lowetide this morning on TSN 1260 to discuss the Oilers. Always enjoy chatting with Allan.

Couple of notes:

  • I did see the winning streak as a bit of a mirage. Don’t get me wrong, it was a lot of fun, especially that Friday night win against the Rangers on home ice. But the fact that the club was getting outshot and outchanced, and that the goaltending numbers were slightly above their season average, made me skeptical. The other issue is that the Oilers needed overtime and shootout frequently in that winning stretch to close out games. Good teams are able to close out games in regulation. If you keep putting yourself in luck-driven scenarios, you can expect to eventually get burnt.
  • The Klefbom loss is significant for the Oilers. Corey Travers over at Copper & Blue looked into just  how good Klefbom has been this season and where his underlying numbers are at.
  • Looks like the RNH trade rumours are flaring up again. Funny how it tends to coincide with a losing streak. While I completely agree that the Oilers need a legitimate defenceman to play minutes and contribute on special teams, I don’t think it should come at the price of RNH. The guy is playing against the best players every night, allowing Draisaitl and Hall with some lighter minutes, especially on home ice. And if you trade him, who exactly would replace RNH? Dmitri Filopovic had a great defence piece a few weeks ago when the rumors were picking up. Highly recommend it.
  • To be honest, I do not see the Oilers making any moves to bolster the defence core during the season. Really, what would be the point? The team will have cap space in the off season and won’t be pressured to tinker with their core.
  • If you’re interested, Ryan Stimson over at Hockey Graphs put together a series of posts last week that looked into the passing data that he and his group of volunteers collected. The data from a sample of games is available now. Definitely something to keep an eye on going forward.

Couple thoughts on Schultz and the Oilers’ Powerplay

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With the Oilers powerplay sputtering in recent games, defencemen Justin Schultz is getting a lot more attention from fans and media. The criticism is well deserved. Despite getting the most powerplay minutes among Oiler defencemen every year, and being trumpeted as a powerplay specialist by the team, Schultz has scored 5 powerplay goals and 35 assists over the past four seasons as an Oiler. The most troubling issue is that his last powerplay goal was in the 2013/14 season.

We know from previous research and analysis (Fear the Fin, Pensburgh, Hockey Prospectus), including the original work from the late Tore Purdy, that the best predictor of goal scoring success on the powerplay is the team’s Fenwick For/60 (FF/60), or the rate at which a team can generate unblocked shot attempts. As a point of reference, I plotted every team’s FF/60 and Goals For/60 on the powerplay from the past 7 years below. There are cases where a team does not shoot often and still finds success, but for the most part team’s are not able to sustain that year over year.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.