Couple thoughts on the Oilers shooting percentage + TV spot (CBC)

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The Oilers team shooting percentage at even-strength (5v5) has been getting a lot of attention and for good reason. The club is posting some very nice possession numbers, often out-shooting their opponents, but they haven’t been able to convert their chances as often as they’d like. The Oilers are also getting quality chances, posting a score-adjusted Fenwick For% of 55.47%, which puts to rest any concerns that the Oilers aren’t making the most of their strong possession numbers.

  • Corsi For%: 54.52% (5th)
  • Fenwick For%: 55.47% (4th)
  • Goals For%: 39.13% (28th)

Last season, the club was right around the league average when it came to shooting percentage, finishing with 8.28% . Heading into their game against Dallas on Thursday night, the Oilers were at the bottom of the league with 3.99%.

The first thought here would be that because the team is posting such good possession numbers,  and with an elite talent like McDavid on the roster, their shooting percentage should eventually regress towards the mean, moving closer to normal ranges, and the club should start to score more often. It’s difficult to imagine the Oilers regularly outshooting their opponents over an 82-game season and finishing with a 39% goal-share, so one would hope that things will eventually have to start going the Oilers way.

The concern I have with this thought is that even if the Oilers do a good job controlling play and generating shots, they currently lack the talent to convert those chances into goals. The forward group definitely has NHL-calibre players, inclduing Patrick Maroon, Nugent-Hopkins and Milan Lucic. But unfortunately for the Oilers, they’ve been fairly weak on the right-side with Draisaitl out, and have relied heavily on rookie Kailer Yamamoto and Ryan Strome for offence.

Below is a table of the forwards sorted by the number of shots on goal they’ve had in the first eight games and their individual shooting percentages. I’ve also included each player’s career number of games played and their career shooting percentages heading into the 2017/18 season.

Player GP Shots Shooting% Career Games Played Career Shooting%
Connor McDavid 8 26 11.54 127 12.50
Kailer Yamamoto 7 19 0.00 0 N/A
Patrick Maroon 8 18 11.11 301 11.76
Ryan Strome 8 12 0.00 258 8.31
Milan Lucic 8 10 10.00 680 13.39
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 8 10 10.00 395 9.87
Leon Draisaitl 4 10 10.00 191 11.67
Zack Kassian 8 9 0.00 313 11.02

What stands out here are two things and really needs to be addressed, especially by management.

First, a rookie is getting the second highest number of shots for the team. The problem with that is you can’t expect a player to make a smooth transition from junior and be able to figure out NHL calibre goalies. He absolutely has the talent to have a good NHL career, but the timeline for his development, like any other highly touted prospect, is unknown. Keep in mind, Leon Draisaitl in his rookie season posted a 2.63% shooting percentage, scoring one goal in 37 games.  Jesse Puljujaarvi in his rookie season didn’t score a single goal over 28 games. While it’s wonderful for Yamamoto’s development to play a top-6 role, it’s not exactly a smart bet on the part of the Oilers to rely on him for offensive production.

The second issue here is that Ryan Strome, who does not have a history of offensive production, is in the top five among forwards when it comes to shots. His career shooting percentage over 258 games is 8.31%, which is below league average – typically around 10.0% every season among forwards. (Source: Quant Hockey).

NHL-Forwards-Average-Shot-Percentage

Strome’s shooting percentage could improve over time; we know we can be more confident in his actual numbers as he continues to compile more shots. But the fact is he cost the Oilers Eberle to acquire, an experienced player with proven goal-scoring abilities and a career shooting percentage of 12.5% over 507 games. That trade would’ve been fine had the Oilers followed it up by acquiring another top six player with a track-record of scoring, but they didn’t, instead banking on one of their younger players to step into the role. On top of that, the Oilers bought out Benoit Pouliot, who struggled last season, but was a player with a 12.0% career shooting percentage over 500 games. There was a financial case to make both transactions, but the Oilers are now weaker up front, leaving Strome as a top six option when his numbers indicate he would be better suited in a lesser role.

I think those two issues – fast-tracking Yamamoto and giving Strome a top six push – are part of the reason why the club’s shooting percentage is lower than expected. Maybe both Yamamoto and Strome head to a stick factory in Mexico, find their stride and start converting on their chances. But without any data or evidence to base their decisions on, the Oilers management is taking a significant risk by having players without any offensive history play important minutes.

Oilers management can hope for the team shooting percentage to bounce back, but they haven’t exactly done themselves any favors with the roster they’ve built. And the fact that the defence core is taking more shot attempts this season compared to the past two suggests to me that the Oilers coaching staff might feeling the same way.

Heading into last night’s game, three of the top five players when it came to shot attempts at 5v5 were defencemen.

Player GP Shot Attempts
Oscar Klefbom 8 43
Connor McDavid 8 41
Darnell Nurse 8 40
Adam Larsson 8 34
Kailer Yamamoto 7 31

Last season, only one defenceman finished in the top five.

Player GP Shot Attempts
Connor McDavid 82 301
Oscar Klefbom 82 293
Jordan Eberle 82 281
Patrick Maroon 81 245
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 82 231

And breaking it down between all defencemen and forwards, there’s a noticeable uptick in the proportion of shot attempts coming from the blueline this season at 5v5.

Proportion of Oilers’ Shot Attempts (5v5)
Season Defencemen Forwards
2015/16 35.8% 64.2%
2016/17 35.7% 64.3%
2017/18 42.6% 57.4%

I’m suspecting that because the forward group is lacking scoring depth, the defencemen are getting more responsibility to direct pucks towards the net and having forwards scrounge for rebounds. The other factor we have to consider here is the amount and proportion of time the Oilers are trailing and the score effects associated with that game state. With opponents often defending a lead against Edmonton, the Oilers skaters could start to take as many shots as possible to generate a scoring chances. But often these desperation shots tend to come from low-probability scoring areas – perhaps a result of the defencemen trying to force plays.

It’ll be interesting to check in again in a month to see how the shots are being distributed, but I think the roster will need some changes if the team wants to better improve their chances of scoring.

Data: Natural Stat Trick, Corisca Hockey

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

And if you missed it, I discussed the Oilers early season issues and some of the positives heading into last night’s game against Dallas on the CBC news. Clip is here, starts around the six minute mark: CBC Edmonton News (2017, October 26)

Shooters when the Oilers are trailing

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The Edmonton Oilers have been trailing a lot in games this season.

After their first seven games, the team has spent close to 56% of their total even-strength time trailing, one of the highest proportions in the league. The good news is that the Oilers are controlling the play when behind, posting a 60.8% Corsi For%, good for 8th in the league. We know teams that trail tend to start pressing and often get a higher share of the shots, so it’s  a positive sign that the Oilers are at least putting themselves in a good position to succeed.

The Oilers ability to control play when trailing this season is similar to what happened last year. While the team didn’t trail as often, they posted similar possession numbers as this season (57.78% Corsi For%, 6th in the league).

The difference between this season and last season? Shooting percentage.

Last year when the Oilers trailed, their shooting percentage was one of the highest in the league at 9.08%. You could look at this and consider their success to be all luck, but when you see that their Corsi For% was 57.78%, it’s safe to assume their success when trailing was real.

This season, their shooting percentage is an abysmal 3.94%, one of the lowest in the league. I’d consider this to be bad luck, as the process is right (i.e., the possession numbers are solid), but the goals just aren’t coming.

Now instead of just chalking this all up to bad luck, it’s worth exploring why the shooting percentage might be low.

Below is a graph of the Oiler forwards from last year, and what percentage of the team’s total time trailing they were on the ice for. McDavid was on for 35% of the team’s total time, with Maroon, Draisaitl, Eberle and Lucic each on the ice for at least 25% of the team’s time. Pretty much what you would expect, and the Oilers were fortunate to have their top players healthy for the whole season.

Oilers - Trailing - Forwards - 20162017

 

This year, the distribution of ice time is a lot different.

Oilers - Trailing - Forwards - 20172018

The Oilers still have McDavid, Maroon, Lucic and RNH getting ice time when trailing and looking for a goal. But then not far behind them is rookie Kailer Yamamoto, Zack Kassian and Ryan Strome. That’s a pretty sizable drop off in talent compared to last season and it’s obvious the team is lacking some  high-end skilled players who can finish.

Currently, Strome and Yamamoto are near the top among Oilers when it comes to total shots at even-strength when the team is trailing. Not exactly the players you would want shooting considering one is a raw rookie and the other has 33 career goals.

Player GP TOI Shots
Connor McDavid 7 61.17 12
Kailer Yamamoto 6 45.92 12
Patrick Maroon 7 57.28 11
Ryan Strome 7 40.07 10
Milan Lucic 7 46.83 7
Zack Kassian 7 42.13 6
Jussi Jokinen 7 37.23 5
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 7 43.62 5
Anton Slepyshev 5 30.88 5
Brad Malone 3 14.13 4
Leon Draisaitl 3 21.60 4
Iiro Pakarinen 6 25.50 3
Mark Letestu 7 24.82 2
Drake Caggiula 2 6.67 1
Jujhar Khaira 3 8.62 0

Taking a glance at the individual shooting percentages at 5v5 heading into this season, we see that Strome over his 258 career games has converted 8.31% of his shots into goals. That’s right around league average. Compare that to Eberle’s numbers and even Pouliot’s.

 

Player GP Goals Shots Individual Shooting%
R. Strome 258 33 397 8.31%
Z. Kassian 313 41 372 11.02%
J. Eberle 507 110 896 12.28%
L. Draisaitl 191 28 240 11.67%
B. Pouliot 548 86 710 12.11%

This isn’t to say that having Eberle on the team would have solved all of the Oilers problems. But it does highlight the fact that the Oilers failed to replace Eberle’s offence this past off-season, and really lack scoring depth. Draisaitl should be back in the lineup soon, but the team needs to shore up their secondary offence if they want to have any success in the future.

I still expect the Oilers shooting percentage to gradually improve. I just wish the team did a better job building a capable roster and provided themselves some certainty.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Fun with percentages + TV spot (CBC)

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I joined Adrienne Pan on the CBC Edmonton news this evening to discuss the Oilers struggles and their upcoming games. But since the newscast was province-wide, I also got to discuss the Flames. Clip is here and starts around the 14:25 mark: CBC Edmonton News (2017, October 19).

One thing we touched on were the Oiler’s even-strength shooting and save percentages over the first five games this season. And how they compared with all of last season.

Even-strength (5v5) 2016/17 2017/18
Team Shooting % 8.28% 3.92%
Team Save % 92.72% 89.91

It’s worth mentioning that among all 30 teams last season, the shooting percentages ranged from 9.20% to 6.26%. So the Oilers were right around the league average. They’re at a rate right now that no team has finished a season with. So really, I don’t think there’s much to worry about; it should get better.

One thing I wanted to see was if the Oilers posted this poorly of a shooting percentage at any point last season.

Oilers - 20162017 - Rolling 5 Game Shooting Percentage

For the most part, the Oilers were above the league average. But there was a dip after the all-star break. It was an interesting slump, as heading into the break the Oilers had beaten the Flames 7-3 and then had those two wins in Anaheim and San Jose on back-to-back nights. They had outscored their California rivals 8-1, and the playoffs started feeling like a real possibility at that point.

Following the break, the team was terrible, losing four of their next five, and nothing seemed like it was going right. They were outscored 14-5 over that stretch and had a 2.33% shooting percentage. What’s interesting though is that their Corsi For% over those five games was around 53%, but they just weren’t getting any breaks.

The one concern I have is that the Oilers traded away the one player who was actually pretty good at converting shots into goals. I know Eberle has his flaws, but the Oilers did nothing to replace his unique skillset. The club is hoping that one of the young players – Puljujaarvi, Yamamoto, Strome – can step in and replace the points that Eberle provided. But right now, Eberle has been replaced by Draisailt, who (when healthy) should be playing on his own line to bolster the secondary scoring.

And just for my own review, I also looked at the Oilers save percentages over rolling 5-game stretches last season.

Oilers - 20162017 - Rolling 5 Game Save Percentage

Pretty much what I expected. The Oilers had a save percentage above league average (91.5%-92.0%) for most of the season, with spikes and dips along the way.

What’s funny here is that when the team struggled to score following the all-star break, the goaltending was just fine and actually kept them in games.

Talbot did struggle in early January over five games, posting a save percentage just above 86%, but then the team’s shooting percentage jumped up to over 9% basically bailing out the shoddy goaltending. They beat the Bruins and Devils on the road before losing to the Senators. Got home, lost to the Sharks and then beat the Devils again.

I guess my takeaway from this brief exercise is that pretty much everything is going wrong for the Oilers right now. The goaltending has been bad, leaving the team in a hole early in games. And then the skaters just start pressing to score, often taking shots for the sake of taking shots. One of the two, shooting or save percentage, is bound to rebound and the team should be able to start banking some points.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Discussing the Oilers slow start on the CBC Edmonton News (TV) + Notes

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Joined Adrienne Pan on the CBC Edmonton news last night. We discussed the Oilers slow start, the potential line-up for Saturday night and the upcoming schedule. Clip starts around the 20:20 mark: CBC Edmonton News (2017, October 12).

Also happy to announce that I’ll be on every Thursday evening for the rest of the season. Really excited to continue working with the great crew at CBC.

Notes:

I think what’s made this 1-2 start even worse is the fact that the Oilers will have had four days off between their last game and their next game. That obviously puts more attention on the practice lines and soundbytes from the coaching staff. And it gives us more time to stew about the plays that led to goals against. Saturday can’t come soon enough.

Taking a step back and focusing less on the goal differential, the Oilers have so far posted a 54.58% adjusted Corsi For percentage at even-strength (Source: Natural Stat Trick). It wouldn’t be wise to start predicting future goal-scoring with this small of a dataset, but these are still encouraging results. At the end of the month, I’ll dig a little more to see where the team stands, what sort of line combinations are being used and how they’re doing in terms of goal and shot-share.

The roster is still in need of some upgrades, especially on defence. The team chose to use this year as another assessment year, which I think will cost them wins. I understand needing to know what you have and how your prospects are doing before pulling a trade. But I think there’s enough of a track record for guys like Nurse and Puljujaarvi to know what they are, what they can provide and what their ceiling could be. Really, if there’s an opportunity to upgrade, especially on defence, the Oilers have to consider moving out some of their younger prospects.

When it comes to the forwards, we know the Oilers need to shore up their secondary scoring. The key is obviously Draisaitl centering his own line, but I really don’t think he can do it without Maroon with him on the left. I dug into how they did together (without McDavid) last season, and how it compared to a Draisaitl-Lucic combo.

With Draisaitl as C TOI CF% GF% PDO
Maroon 144:18 50.6 54.5 101.8
Lucic 119:19 46.5 40.0 97.8

Moving Maroon, would mean that Lucic is back on the top line with McDavid, which didn’t get great results last year, but the shot-share was still pretty good. RNH would play with Jokinen, and Letestu would remain with Kassian.

Here’s the forward line combinations I would like to see the coaching staff try out at some point this season:

  • Lucic-McDavid-Guy
  • Maroon-Draisaitl-Guy
  • Jokinen-RNH-Guy
  • Khaira/Pakarinen-Letestu-Kassian

Should note that I don’t mean to disprespect players like Strome, Yamamoto or Slepyshev. They’re all capable players, but they’re interchangeable depending on who the competition is.

And I’m probably in the minority here, but I can’t understand what the point of having Chris Kelly on the roster is and why he’s on the team without a contract. I get having an experienced player around, and someone that can mentor the players. But why would you provide a service without a contract in place? The PA has to be questioning this, but who knows. I get the feeling that if the Oilers were on a winning streak heading into this four-day break, they would’ve announced his signing.

 

Discussing the win against the Flames and McDavid’s performance on the CBC Edmonton News (TV)

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I joined Adrienne Pan earlier this evening to talk about the home opener, McDavid’s performance and the upcoming game against the Canucks. Clip is here and starts around the 9:30 mark: CBC Edmonton News (2017, October 5)

Should note that any stats I use when discussing games are typically from Natural Stat Trick. Just an incredible resource. Here’s the game report for last night’s win against the Flames.

Just a heads up that I’ll be on the newscast a little more often this upcoming season. Really excited to continue working with everyone at CBC Edmonton.

Tempering Expectations

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A lot of optimism around the Oilers heading into 2017/18 season, and for good reason. They’re coming off of a 103-point regular season, and were one win away from making it to the Western Conference finals. Anchored by Connor McDavid, Cam Talbot and Oscar Klefbom, the Oilers have on paper a good mix of skill and experience throughout the roster. The fact that they have one of the best players on the planet is really what pushes them into the contender discussion.

The success that they’re building on from last year was fully earned. They finished the year with a +36 goal differential, posted an even-strength (5v5) Corsi For percentage of 49.99%, and a Fenwick For% of 50.96% (9th in the league). They benefitted from a largely healthy roster, as their top six forwards, their three best defencemen and their starting goalie dressed for almost every single game.

Player GP   Player GP
McDavid 82 Klefbom 82
Draisaitl 82 Sekera 80
Eberle 82 Larsson 79
Lucic 82
Maroon 81 Talbot 73
Nugent-Hopkins 82

By and large, this was a good team.

But in my opinion, they’re still not legitimate contenders. And I’m perplexed that they’re being considered by some as the team to come out of the west, let alone potential Stanley Cup contenders.

A number of reasons I’ve tempered my expectations.

First off, not enough assurances were made to improve the team’s offence without McDavid on the ice. Two of the very few players who actually did well when it came to shot-share away from McDavid – Eberle and Pouliot – are out. I like the chances of Jokinen posting good shot-share numbers as he’s done well in the past, but we have to keep in mind his year-to-year points/60 are very similar to Pouliot’s.

Pouliot vs Jokinen

As for Strome, he’s a player that never posted good shot or goal numbers away from the top end players in New York, so my expectations remain low. Now if Draisaitl takes a step, and if Lucic bounces back from a dreadful year at 5v5, there’s a chance the Oilers have a good second line. I just don’t think McLellan will be able to refrain from having Draisaitl on McDavid’s wing often enough; it’s just far too tempting as a coach to have that explosive of an option. So I’m skeptical that Strome will get a lot of time on the top line, and he likely won’t be producing as well as Eberle has. That’s a problem.

The Oilers also retained the services of Russell, who can do a good job suppressing shots when the puck is in the Oilers zone. But he has very little offensive ability and the goals tend to dry up McDavid isn’t on the ice with him. Ideally, the Oilers would’ve added another piece to the blueline, someone that has better offensive instincts and an ability to generate scoring chances. Auvitu could potentially be that player, but we’ll have to wait and see how often he even gets into the lineup.

The other issue facing the Oilers is Sekera’s injury. I went into this deeper over at The Athletic Edmonton a few days ago, but long story shot: the Oilers are hoping that Nurse and Benning step into a larger role and I’m not sure that’s a wise bet.

The fact that the Oilers are relying heavily on internal growth is a little troubling. It’s the last year before McDavid’s contract kicks in, and they had the space to make moves and bring in more impactful players. I get that every team needs their younger players to eventually step into key roles, but I’m not sold on what the Oilers have up front. Caggiula, Slepyshev, Puljujaarvi, Strome all have potential and there’s things to like in each of their games. But none of them have really solidified their roles on this team for the upcoming season. If at least one of these players can generate offence, especially away from McDavid, I’ll have a little more confidence in the Oilers decision to go through another “growth year”.

So in summary, my reasons for lower expectations:

  1. Not enough assurance that the team will produce when McDavid isn’t on the ice.
  2. They’re missing Sekera for an indefinite amount of time, and will be relying on Benning and Nurse to fill in.
  3. Not enough offensive talent, and a heavy reliance on younger forwards like Slepyshev, Caggiula and Strome to take another step in their development.
  4.  Also, I think the Pacific division is going to be more competitive than people think. Arizona and Calgary just improved their defence. LA has a new coach and a healthy starting goalie. And San Jose still has enough talent to push for a playoff spot.

I genuinely hope I’m wrong, and that the issues I’ve raised are non-existent. I’d love to see the Oilers crush the league and win a championship. But because of the decisions that the Oilers management have made, I’m just not optimistic as others that it’s this year.

Below are a few high-level baselines that I think the Oilers will need to achieve in the first month to be in the contender discussion.

  • 5v5 Goals For% > 50% when McDavid is on the bench
  • 5v5 Corsi For% > 50% when McDavid is on the bench
  • 5v5 Team Corsi For% > 51%
  • Powerplay FF/60 > 75.00
  • Penaltykill FA/60 <70.00

Achieving these will not guarantee anything, but I think it would demonstrate that they are on the right track.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Potentially signing Chris Kelly and what it tells us about the Oilers

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coppernblue.com.full.54273When the Oilers signed Chris Kelly to a professional tryout on September 9th, I figured it was mainly to meet the requirement of having at least eight veterans on the roster for exhibition games. It also wouldn’t hurt for the coaching staff to have an experienced player around the younger prospects through camp. And it would increase the competition for jobs on the third and fourth line.

Nothing confirmed yet, but after Brad Malone was demoted to the AHL earlier this week, and the fact that he’s still on the roster today, it’s starting to feel like the Oilers may sign Kelly to an NHL contract.

“He’s performed well. We have to see how these things turn out with Yamamoto and Jesse, and there’s a number of other variables. Chris has done well, he’s skating better than he did last year. He’s a great character, I’ve seen what he can do in and out of the room.” – GM Peter Chiarelli (Source: Oilers Now, 630 CHED)

Of course, signing Kelly wouldn’t be the end of the world. But it raises a few concerns around the Oilers and how they’re managing the roster.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

The Oilers are taking a big risk trying to replace Andrej Sekera from within

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taThe Edmonton Oilers are heading into the 2017-18 season without one of their most important defencemen. Andrej Sekera could potentially be on injured reserved until January as he recovers from a torn ACL suffered in last spring’s playoff series against the Anaheim Ducks.

It’s a significant loss that wasn’t adequately addressed during the off-season.

The veteran ranked second among Oilers defencemen in total time on ice and ice time per game, playing a key role whether at even strength, on power play or on the penalty kill. He’s been relied upon since the day he arrived in Edmonton to regularly play against top competition.

One of Sekera’s best assets has been his ability to do a little bit of everything. He skates well and can move the puck out of his zone at a decent rate. Defensively, he’s extremely reliable, pressuring forwards and being in the right spots to not only clear the front of the net, but also to get the puck moving out of the zone and into transition to generate offence.

There really hasn’t been anything that he couldn’t do for the Oilers. Now the Oilers coaching staff has to figure out a plan to deal with Sekera’s absence.

Full article is at The Athletic Edmonton.

Discussing Oilers training camp and the potential lineup on the CBC Edmonton News (TV)

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I joined Adrienne Pan on the CBC Edmonton News on Thursday evening to discuss the Oilers preseason, and the lineup we may see on opening night next week. Clip is here and starts around the 8:30 mark: CBC Edmonton News (2017, September 28)

Couple notes:

  • I can’t emphasize enough how meaningless exhibition results are. The competition is always questionable. The veterans are playing at half-speed. And the bubble players look like the only ones trying. It’s great that the Oilers are 6-1, but you have to keep in mind that there is no correlation between preseason success and regular season success. (Source: Oilers Nerd Alert)
  • It’s been a lot of fun watching Yamamoto play. The points are great, but what I’ve been focused more on this preseason is how these younger players do away from the puck. Yamamoto has been better than I expected when it comes to forechecking and pressuring defencemen. The guy has great speed, but he’s often in a good spot to limit passing lanes.
  • I haven’t been impressed by Strome so far. His offensive game is fine, he’s pretty much the complementary type of player I was expecting. But it’s his defensive game that I’ve found concerning. He’s not overly fast or skilled, and from what I’ve seen he doesn’t often pose a challenge to opponents. Limited viewings for sure, but I’d definitely want to see a lot more from him, especially if he gets gifted top six minutes. Also – his game as a center the other night in Saskatoon wasn’t great. Definitely expected better, especially if Chiarelli views him as a center. For now, we should probably throw some cold water on those RNH trade rumors
  • The forward pairings have been pretty much what I expected back in July: Maroon/McDavid, Lucic/Drai, Jokinen/RNH and Letestu/Kassian. I think if Strome played better and if Yamamoto wasn’t as good as he’s been, Strome would’ve easily been on the top line and Puljujaarvi would’ve been with RNH. Slepyshev’s injury also complicates matters, and I think he would’ve been a nice fit with Leon. Caggiula is the other guy that hasn’t solidified a position, but I expect him to get plenty of ice time, potentially on Leon’s line.
  • If you haven’t checked it out, I highly recommend listening to Bob McKenzie’s interviews with the general managers of the Canadian team. (Source: The TSN Hockey Bobcast)