In my latest post for Oilersnation, I looked into Evander Kane’s declining on-ice numbers at even-strength (5v5), and why his poor start to this season shouldn’t be surprising. Playing further down the line-up could benefit him and the Edmonton Oilers.
I found that Evander Kane was especially at risk as his on-ice shot-share numbers, which can be used to predict future results (i.e., goal-share), had gradually declined over the past few seasons. Starting in his last two seasons with the San Jose Sharks, his numbers indicated that his team was often performing worse with him than without him at even strength – a major red flag for someone who consistently played top six minutes with the top players on his team. His worst numbers came last season in Edmonton. Despite playing often with McDavid and Draisaitl, Kane posted some of the lowest shot-share numbers on the team, with the Oilers doing much better at controlling the flow of play and out-chancing opponents without him on the ice than with him. Injuries were obviously a factor last season, but it appears that his decline in even-strength performance started much earlier than that. And that shouldn’t be surprising based on what we know about player aging curves.
I joined Nancy Carlson on CBC Radio Active to talk Oilers, the poor early-season results and what’s needed to turn things around. Full segment is here: CBC Radio Active (2023, October 17)
Topics we covered:
The expectations heading into the season, and why the poor start has become a hot topic.
The Oilers goaltending, and what we can expect from Skinner and Campbell.
The key underlying issues at even-strength, but why there’s also reasons for optimism.
Expectations for the next few games with stops in Nashville and Philadelphia, before hosting Winnipeg on Saturday night.
Thanks as always to the team at CBC for putting it all together.
In my latest post for Oilersnation, I looked into who the individual drivers were on the Oilers penalty kill from last year, and what the potential deployment could be like this upcoming season.
The next issue worth exploring before the start of the regular season is the player deployment from last season – and which skaters helped improve the odds of the penalty kill being successful. To do this, I looked at the on-ice numbers for each Oilers player who played at least 10 minutes on the penalty kill last season. Specifically, I wanted to know how well the team did at suppressing shots (shots against per hour, SA/60) and chances (unblocked shot attempts against per hour, FA/60) with different players on the ice. These are numbers that skaters can help influence, as they are trying to block shots, cut off passing lanes, and force the puck into low-probability scoring areas. For context, I also included in the tables each skater’s on-ice rate of goals against (i.e., actual results, GA/60), which skaters tend to have less of an influence on as goaltending plays a larger factor.
In my latest post for Oilersnation, I looked into the Oilers penalty kill from last season, and some of the gradual progress it had made over the course of the year.
Heading into an important year, it’s critical that the Oilers penalty kill doesn’t cost them any wins like it did in the first twenty-five games of last season. The second-half results were driven by better tactics and defensive play by the skaters, and the team should be able to replicate those numbers. The only question mark should be around goaltending, which we can’t always predict. But if Skinner and Campbell can perform even at league-average levels, the Oilers penalty kill should be in a better spot.
In my latest post for Oilersnation, I looked into how many goals we can reasonably expect from Leon Draisaitl this upcoming season. I factored in his games played, rate of shots and shooting percentage in different games states. I also looked into what might be holding him back from reaching the 60-goal mark.
So taking a conservative approach and using his average rate of shots and his individual shooting percentage from the last four seasons at even-strength and on special teams, I think we can expect Draisaitl to score at least 51 total goals in the 2023/24 regular season (25 on even-strength, 25 on the powerplay and one shorthanded). This of course is assuming Draisaitl remains healthy, he continues to play with good players at even-strength. And the Oilers powerplay continues to have the same talent and tactical approach as it’s had the last few seasons with Glen Gulutzan running things.
Now to get anywhere near 60 goals and join that elite club, a few things will need to go right.
Draisaitl would need to match his career-best shooting percentages at even-strength (20.53% in 2018/19) and the powerplay (30.48% in 2022/23). Doing that and even generating the same rate of shots per game from the last four seasons (1.87 shots per game at even-strength and 1.21 shots per game on the powerplay) and he could potentially reach 61 goals – 31 at even-strength, 29 on the powerplay and 1 shorthanded.
My first post for Oilersnation is up! I looked at the first 20 games of last regular season and what some of the drivers were for the Oilers poor results.
After the first 20 games of last season (up until November 24th), the Oilers had ten wins and ten losses – a points percentage of 0.500 that ranked 22nd in the league. This was only better than Arizona, Vancouver, San Jose and Anaheim in the Western Conference. The team performed poorly at even-strength (5v5), which needed to be much better as the special teams was pretty much a non-factor due to the terrible penalty kill. The powerplay was a bright spot, generating the third-highest rate of goals in the league during this period. But all of their net goals (+19) were completely negated by the penalty kill that allowed the fourth-highest rate of goals against in the league.
In these first twenty games at even-strength, the Oilers had a -11 goal differential (33 goals for, 44 goals against) – a 42.85% goal-share that ranked 28th in the league. The team’s below average shooting percentage and save percentage were obvious factors. But there’s a few more underlying issues.
Happy to announce that I’ll be joining Oilersnation as a contributor for the upcoming season!
I’ve been a long-time reader of the website, even remember the very, very early days and some of the great writers that have written there in the past. It’s been a staple for Oiler fans and continues to be at the top in terms of hockey coverage. I’m happy to be joining such a talented group of people.
Special thanks to Oilersnation news director Zach Laing who reached out. One of the best in the Oilers fan community, a real professional who I’ve had the pleasure of hosting on my podcast a fewtimes.
I’ll still be using this website as a centralized repository for all of my work and will post links to my articles at Oilersnation and any radio segments for CBC Edmonton.
Appreciate the support I’ve received over these 14+ years writing here and elsewhere. Looking forward to what comes next.
This week on the podcast, I share my thoughts on the Edmonton Oilers latest analytics hire, Leon Draisaitl’s chances of scoring 60 goals and what would have to go right for him to do that this upcoming season.
Full segment is below and available through all podcast channels.
This week on the podcast, I share my thoughts on the Edmonton Oilers off-season and some of the declining assets that management should be aware of. As well as the importance of evaluating and projecting Leon Draisaitl’s performance as he approaches 30.
Full segment is below and available through all podcast channels.
Leon Draisaitl has been a tremendous asset for the Edmonton Oilers since being drafted by the club in 2014. In 638 NHL games, the 27-year-old forward has scored 306 goals and accumulated 744 points, plus another 77 points in 49 playoff games. He can easily be considered one of the top players in the league annually.
Draisaitl is now entering his tenth NHL season and the second last year of his current contract with the Oilers. And could potentially become an unrestricted free agent at the end of the 2024/25 season when he’s 29. While there is time for the player and the team to decide if there’s a long-term fit and a new contract, it’s a good idea to start monitoring and projecting Draisaitl’s production to inform contract discussions, which will have an immediate impact on the Oilers roster construction moving forward. Draisaitl also holds a lot of power here as he’s a bona fide star player in the league and could choose a different direction for his career if he doesn’t feel the Oilers can be legitimate cup contenders. So the Oilers really need to be sure of his intentions as soon as possible to avoid losing him for nothing, similar to what’s happened in other markets.
While Draisaitl has put up significant points, there are some areas that the Oilers should be aware of, namely his on-ice impact offensively and defensively, along with his production at even-strength (5v5). His powerplay production should be of little concern as he has the talent and teammates to keep the Oilers at the top of the league. But it’s at even-strength where he’s spent 80% of his total playing time – and having an impact on the game offensively and defensively – that should be carefully monitored and evaluated prior to contract negotiations.
Starting with his overall even-strength (5v5) production, below are Draisaitl’s points per hour since entering the league as a 19-year-old in 2014/15. His peak season was in 2019/20 when he finished second in the league with 56 even-strength points, going on to win the Hart Trophy as the league’s most valuable player.
From his first full season in 2015/16 to that high-point as a 24-year-old in 2019/20, his rate of points per hour increased by 33%. Since that point, however, his rate of point production has gradually been decreasing, with Draisaitl posting a rate of 2.41 points per hour this past season – a drop of 16.6% since his Hart Trophy season. This isn’t to say Draisaitl is anywhere close to being done as a star player – those are still solid numbers, and he clearly has the talent to make a long career for himself similar to other top-end players. But when reviewing potential contract structures, it’s important to have some reasonable expectations of the player and determine what the roster needs could be if his production is expected to decline and if his positional deployment (i.e., center or winger) changes at all.
What’s also important to note is Draisaitl’s ability to generate shots for himself, as that remains an area of consistency for the forward. That along with his shooting percentage can give the team some added comfort that he can maintain a fairly high level of production offensively, even as he ages.
The one area that I would have concern with is his overall impact on the total game, offensively and defensively, when he’s on the ice at even-strength. Using his relative-to-team numbers, which informs us on how well the team does with him on the ice, we see that his impact has gradually been declining. Even to the point where the team had done a better job at out-shooting and out-chancing opponents without him than with him the last couple of seasons.
Draisaitl has had the unique ability to outperform his on-ice shot-share and possession numbers because of his ability to create high quality chances within the time he has playing offence and his strong finishing ability. But it’d probably give the team a little more confidence in his future potential if the team wasn’t spending so much time in their own zone and defending when he’s been on the ice. If you’re paying a premium for a player like Draisaitl, the team should be doing a better job controlling the flow of shots and chances with them on the ice than without him, especially when things like individual and on-ice shooting percentages and team save percentages can fluctuate sporadically. Again, this isn’t to say Draisaitl is done as a star player. But these are some of key metrics to track over the next couple of seasons to help inform the team’s future roster decisions.
The good news for now is that the Oilers have this top-end player signed for two more seasons, a period in which the Oilers should be doing everything possible to win a championship. In his nine seasons as an Oiler, the club hasn’t won a single division title, no conference titles, and has only won four playoff rounds, three of which were in the last two seasons. So the motivation for the team and the player should definitely be there to win titles as soon as possible.
But over this next stretch, the Oilers have to also be thinking about their long-term aspirations, what the roster needs will be (and there’s always plenty) and how they plan on filling those requirements. Draisaitl should be considered a part of the Oilers long-term plans, but only if the Oilers have a strategy to surround him with talent that can fill the void when his production or defensive impacts start to slip. For example, if the team feels Draisaitl can maintain his production into his thirties, but predominantly as a winger, then the Oilers need to address that and start drafting and developing centers who can take on the workload and produce at a top-six level. And if the team feels he needs to play fewer minutes against elite-level competition to be more productive, similar to what happened last season, then it’s imperative to find someone who can take on those heavier minutes.
Deciding on Draisaitl’s future with Edmonton is going to require strong collaboration between the management group, the coaching staff, the professional scouts and hopefully an analytics and sports science group to get it right. Hopefully they’re up to the task and formulate and propose the appropriate contract structure that works for Draisaitl and the team.
The SuperFan 