Edmonton Oilers

The Oilers have gone from red hot to a hot mess

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The Edmonton Oilers have been very poor since the 4 Nations Face-Off. In 10 games since the break, they have three wins and seven losses, having been outscored 27-40 in all situations.

Even-strength (5v5) has especially been awful as the club went from a +14 goal differential heading into the break to now sitting at even. Put another way, it took them 55 games to have a goal-share of 53 percent, which was eighth best in the league. And all of that progress, especially what they did in January, has been wiped out in the last ten games. They now rank 18th in the league with a goal share of 50 percent. Not exactly looking like a playoff threat. A graph showing the Oilers cumulative goal differential this season at even-strength is below.

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The drop-off in results has been driven by their inability to control the flow and their spending less and less time with the puck. Prior to the break, the Oilers had some of the best shot-share numbers in the league, hovering around the 55 percent mark when it came to Corsi percentage (which is a proxy for puck possession) and Expected Goals (which is a proxy for scoring chances). But since the break, these numbers have fallen to league average levels, with their Expected Goals percentage even dropping below 50 percent.

For context, below is the Oilers underlying shot-share metrics in rolling 10-game segments. I’ve added a marker at the 55 game mark, which is the first game after the Four Nations Faceoff tournament. The other low point came around the game 34 mark, which was in late December when the team was struggling. In January, the team turned things around and started playing closer to what was expected. But things appear to have fallen off again. The recent numbers are well below where they were prior to the break and an indication that the tactics and process the coaching staff has in place for even-strength play isn’t working. The results are suffering because of it, and it has to be addressed as soon as possible.

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There are two issues to consider when trying to understand why these numbers are falling off.

The first is that the team’s goaltending has been a weak spot for the team for a long time now, and hasn’t at any point this season been at or above league average levels. Because of this weakness in net, the team seems to be playing a little too safe now and not pushing for offence as frequently. Instead of taking chances and really leveraging the offensive talent they have up front, there are a few too many conservative plays happening, especially in this recent stretch of games.

The switch to playing more conservatively at even-strength is reflected in the team’s declining rate of generating shot attempts. Before the tournament break, the Oilers were generating 62.6 shot attempts per hour — one of the highest in the league. In the last ten games, that rate has dropped by 8.8 percent to 57.04 shot attempts per hour — which is slightly below league average.  Worth mentioning that the team’s rate of shot attempts against has remained steady all season.

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And as I wrote about a month ago, the team has also been getting a lot more shots from their defencemen, which isn’t ideal considering the probability of scoring drops off the further you’re away from the net. There appears to be more hesitancy to make plays and take some risks to get the puck moving into high danger scoring areas. Instead, the team is taking shot attempts from distance, and hoping the best for rebounds. This is a weird tactical issue that various coaching staffs have tried in Edmonton, and it just doesn’t work well.

Considering the team’s championship aspirations, and the importance of home-ice, it’s critical that the Oilers coaching staff recognize the issues and make the necessary adjustments. The chase for a division title is slowly slipping away, but there is still time to make some ground.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Also posted at Oilersnation.

Blot placement

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With the NHL regular season to re-start this weekend and with the trade deadline coming up, I wanted to take a quick look at the Oilers roster to see where the weaknesses are and what should be addressed by the management group. The reality of operating in a cap system is that you have to pick and choose where you want your strengths and weaknesses to be, and managers have to try to mitigate their risks as much as possible.

My approach is to take a look at each individual player’s actual results (their on-ice goal-share) as well as their underlying number such as their on-ice shot differentials and expected goals differentials. Combining this with their on-ice shooting and save percentage, you can start to gauge whose results are sustainable or not. And which players are more likely to have success.

Below are two tables showing the players on-ice numbers at even-strength (5v5) so far this season, with a basic heat map applied to show each player compares with their cohort. Tables are sorted by each player’s total ice time.

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Thanks to Draisaitl and McDavid, the Oilers continue to have one of the best top-six forward groups in the league. The issue remains with the bottom six group. While they play an important role on the penalty kill, they tend to spend a lot of time without the puck and get out-chanced regularly at even-strength. What really stands out is how poorly McDavid’s on-ice goal differential has been. Despite posting some excellent on-ice shot differentials, he’s sitting at only +5  – and it’s largely driven by his on-ice save percentage. The Oilers team save percentage currently ranks 19th in the league.

On the defensive side, there’s definitely room for improvement, especially with the group’s depth. Not sure how confident I’d be if guys like Emberson, Stecher or Klingberg have to play more minutes as they haven’t done so well in their minutes.

I’d also be concerned about Nurse and ensuring that he has a partner who can make up for his deficiencies. Nurse is a player who needs to on the ice with top end players as his on-ice numbers often take a hit when he’s not with one of the glimmer twins. Interesting to note that when McDavid has been with Nurse on the ice (and away from Draisaitl), his goal differential is -4 at even-strength (4 goals for, 8 goals against). And that’s partially driven by the fact that the Oilers tend to get outshot and outchanced with Nurse on the ice. Even McDavid isn’t immune from Nurse’s impact.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Does the volume of shots the Oilers take from the blueline impact the team’s shooting percentage?

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The Edmonton Oilers are in a great spot right now, sitting first in the Pacific with 72 points in 55 games, and two points ahead of Vegas. They rank third in the league with a 0.667 points percentage, only behind Washington and Winnipeg.

A big reason for that is their overall results at even-strength (5v5), where they’ve outscored opponents 120 to 106 and have a goals-for percentage of 53.10 percent that ranks eighth in the league. What’s been especially encouraging is their strong underlying numbers, like their Corsi For percentage and Expected Goals-For Percentage – both of which are around 55 percent and indicate that their results at even strength are real and sustainable.

What’s interesting is that while the team is getting excellent results at five-on-five, the team’s shooting percentage of 8.26 percent is one of the worst in the league. They currently rank 26th and only ahead of Anaheim, Pittsburgh, Detroit, Calgary, Ottawa, and Nashville – none of which are considered cup contenders like Edmonton. Last season the Oilers shooting percentage ranked 15th in the league and the year before it ranked eighth.

Put another way, if the Oilers had a league-average shooting percentage this season (which is around 8.75 percent), they would have scored 125 goals this season instead of 119. That’s another win in the standings and a larger gap between the competition in the Pacific. Natural Stat Trick’s expected goals model also has the Oilers at scoring 132 goals, which again is higher than their actual count. Using that model, the Oilers should have two extra wins in the standings.

Any way you look at it, the Oilers would be higher up in the standings if they could just finish their chances even marginally better. Goal-scoring has been gradually increasing year-over-year league wide, making it even more critical that Edmonton keeps pace to help solidify their ranking and secure home-ice for the playoffs.

There are of course plenty of factors why the Oilers might be underperforming when it comes to goal-scoring. Players can always slump over the course of a year. Maybe teams are just playing the Oilers harder as they went to the final last season and are considered one of the legit Cup contenders. Hard to pinpoint the exact issue.

But one factor that could be driving down the team’s shooting percentage is the high number of shots and the proportion of shots that are coming off the sticks of their defencemen. Ideal scoring chances are from in close and when the goalie is in motion – which is more likely to happen when forwards are getting those opportunities. Shots from the blueline can create rebounds and chaos, but a lot of times a team is just giving up puck possession when they’re shooting from distance.

On average, teams get about 30 percent of their total even-strength shots from their defencemen. This season, the Oilers getting 35 percent of their total shots from their defencemen, which is the third highest proportion in the league. In the previous two seasons, the Oilers were at around 31 percent and closer to league-average levels. Worth noting that the two teams that get a higher proportion of shots from their defencemen are also cup contenders who are struggling with finishing their chances. Carolina currently ranks 19th in the league in terms of shooting percentage while Colorado ranks 22nd.

Back to Edmonton and their rate of shots from defencemen. Among the 252 defencemen who have played at least 100 even-strength minutes this season, Darnell Nurse ranks third highest with 7.20 shots per hour and Evan Bouchard ranks seventh with 6.82 shots per hour. Ekholm isn’t too far behind, ranking 18th with 6.13 shots per hour. No other team has three defencemen in the top twenty.

For additional context, below is a shot-location map from Hockey Viz comparing the Oilers’ chances last season compared to this season. Red indicates a higher volume relative to league average levels. What stands out here is the growth in chances coming from the blueline on the right side. And fewer shots from in close, which the Oilers excelled at last season.

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Ideally, the shots are coming from the forwards up front, especially from the top-end players. It’s worth noting too that McDavid’s rate of shots are down this season, which is a little baffling considering his talent level and above-average shooting percentage. His current individual rate of 7.51 shots per hour is down 22.1 percent when compared to his rate over the last three seasons (9.17 shots per hour). Unclear if it’s because the defencemen are taking more of the shots or if he’s dealing with something else.

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As the regular season winds down, there’s going to be a home-ice advantage on the line. And it’ll be critical that the Oilers keep up with the growing scoring pace across the league – especially at even-strength. The team is doing a lot of things right in terms of controlling the flow of play and out-chancing opponents. But unless the coaching staff makes some tactical adjustments and generate more offence from their star players up front, the shooting percentage may not improve to where it should be.

Data: Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Viz

Also posted at Oilersnation.

Tracking the Western conference – As of January 31, 2025

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Below are the even-strength (5v5) numbers for each team in the western conference (sorted by points percentage), including goal-share results as well as the shot-share metrics that give us a sense of which teams have the right processes in place and if the results are sustainable or not. At the end of the table are each team’s shooting percentage and save percentage. I’ve also applied a basic heat map to each metric to show which teams are doing well or struggling relative to their conference foes (i.e., green is good, red is bad). You can also find a description of each metric at the end of this article. Please note that the shot-share metrics are score and venue adjusted based on Natural Stat Trick’s methodology.

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And here’s how things are looking in the eastern conference.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Tracking the Western conference – As of December 31, 2024

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Quick summary of how the Edmonton Oilers compare with the rest of the western conference. And a little bit about the east.

Below are the even-strength (5v5) numbers for each team in the western conference (sorted by points percentage), including goal-share results as well as the shot-share metrics that give us a sense of which teams have the right processes in place and if the results are sustainable or not. At the end of the table are each team’s shooting percentage and save percentage. I’ve also applied a basic heat map to each metric to show which teams are doing well or struggling relative to their conference foes (i.e., green is good, red is bad). You can also find a description of each metric at the end of this article. Please note that the shot-share metrics are score and venue adjusted based on Natural Stat Trick’s methodology.

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All is well and good for Edmonton in the western conference as they’re sitting at a point percentage of 0.653. The concern is that their goaltending and team shooting percentage is below average, but it should gradually improve. I did notice that the good teams are separating themselves from the poor ones, and I doubt there will be little movement from the bottom-feeders. I’m expecting Vancouver to slide down a little more. And it’s worth monitoring Vegas, Winnipeg and Minnesota to see if they eventually slide. Edmonton should be able to move up further – but again it really depends on their goaltending and depth scoring.

I was also curious about how the contenders in the east are doing, and if there’s anything worth noting.

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The one team that stands out is Toronto as their shot-share numbers haven’t been great, but they’re getting bailed out by their goaltending. Tampa is another team hanging in there, and could move up. Same with Ottawa, but their having a lot of trouble finishing their chances. Carolina looks really good, and should eventually move up. Their issue, similar to Edmonton and Colorado, is goaltending.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Drawbacks of the Edmonton Oilers having two five-man units

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I recently wrote about how the Edmonton Oilers have recently been getting a lot more out of defenceman Darnell Nurse, as his performance numbers and results have been significantly better than earlier this season. And it’s largely driven by the fact that he’s being deployed a lot more often with Leon Draisaitl’s line. Full article is at Oilersnation.

This had me wondering if deploying Nurse exclusively with Draisaitl’s line and continuing to deploy the Bouchard/Ekholm tandem almost exclusively with McDavid’s line actually makes sense. The results should be great for those two five-man units as there’s plenty of skill and talent there. But wouldn’t that make the rest of the Oilers roster easier to exploit at even-strength?

Looking at the on-ice data, it appears as though the Oilers have recently been exposed, making them an easier target for team’s with depth and skill spread across the lineup.

In the last ten games, without the McDavid/Bouchard/Ekholm set or the Draisaitl/Nurse set, the Oilers have posted the following numbers at even-strength (5v5):

  • Corsi for percentage: 40.74%
  • Expected goals for percentage: 37.24%
  • Goals for percentage: 40.00% (4 goals for, 6 goals against)

The Oilers have played 138 minutes without their two five-man units, which was about 28 percent of the team’s total time in the last ten games. Two concerns with that:

  • The star players are playing a lot more, likely because the Oilers coaching staff urgently needed to make some ground in the standings. I’d expect their minutes to taper off eventually as the season wears on and to stay fresh for the playoffs. But if the depth players are constantly getting outscored, who knows.
  • That’s a good chunk of time that another team could target and exploit, and make life difficult for Edmonton. The Oilers third and fourth lines do a decent job defending, but they generate and score a lot less.

What’s also interesting is how the team’s depth players (i.e., the team without their two five-man units) are impacting the team’s overall shot-share numbers (Corsi For percentage) as well as their share of expected goals.

This graph shows the Oilers Corsi For percentage, with score effects factored in (solid line), over rolling ten game segments. They were at one point one of the best teams in the league, hovering around the 55 percent mark. But it’s gradually declined closer to the break-even mark.

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And this graph shows the Oilers expected goals share, which is trending even worse. Sitting below 50 percent in the last ten games is a little alarming. And it wouldn’t be surprising if their actual results at even-strength start to slip in the coming weeks.

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I don’t think there’s a quick, internal solution here either. Having Nurse play more often with the third and fourth lines isn’t going to work as we know the numbers have been poor in those situations. Plus he’s playing some of his best hockey right now, and I doubt he’d want to play fewer minutes with the star players. My guess is the Oilers will need to give their third pairing an offensive boost, which the Oilers appear to be addressing by acquiring Alec Regula off waivers (draft profile here). It’ll be interesting to see how that plays out and if the third and fourth lines, along with the third defence pair, can improve their on-ice numbers at even-strength.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

The redeployment of Darnell Nurse is leading to some of his best hockey for the Oilers

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The Edmonton Oilers made significant progress in November and now have 32 points in 27 games—a points percentage of 0.593 that ranks seventh in the Western Conference and fourth in the division. Their first ten games of the season really set them back (4-5-1), as they were, at one point, 13th in the conference and only ahead of San Jose in the Pacific.

There are plenty of reasons for their resurgence, but one player in particular who has helped turn things around is defenceman Darnell Nurse. He’s been more noticeable recently (for good reasons) making some great plays on Saturday night against St. Louis and helping set up Corey Perry with a nifty pass for the opening goal.

Nurse had really been struggling early on this season, especially at even-strength (5v5). In 171 minutes over the first ten games of the year (up until October 30), he had a 25 percent on-ice goal-share (on the ice for three goals for and nine goals against). And he was posting some of the worst shot-share numbers on the team as opponents would more often outshoot and outchance the Oilers with Nurse on the ice. What really stood out in those first ten games was how almost every forward on the Oilers was posting better on-ice shot-share numbers when they were playing away from him (i.e., without Nurse on the ice), as Nurse’s performance was really dragging his teammates down.

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Since those first ten games, however, Nurse has been posting significantly better numbers with the team doing a better job controlling the flow of play and scoring chances with him on the ice. His on-ice shot-share numbers at even-strength are all above 53 percent and some of the best numbers on the team. The best part is that his actual results (i.e., goal-share/goal-differentials) have been excellent, as the team has posted a goal-share of 82 percent — nine goals for, two goals against with Nurse on the ice. That goal-share isn’t sustainable and will gradually decline, but his underlying shot-share numbers indicate that the Oilers are more likely to outscore opponents with Nurse on the ice if he continues to perform at this level.

Now this turnaround didn’t happen automatically, and it appears there have been some very strategic adjustments made by the Oilers coaching staff. There’s a lot of pressure on this team this season to win games and make a deep playoff run. And to also maintain the value of their players, especially those on heavy, long-term deals like Nurse. So, it behooves the coaching staff to recognize problems, find potential solutions to improve their odds of winning games and have the courage to carry through on them.

One solution to the Nurse performance problem has been more ice time with Leon Draisaitl.

As I had written about in late October, Nurse played a lot of his even-strength minutes with the depth forwards in the first ten games of the season – specifically the third and fourth lines. Of the 171 minutes Nurse was deployed for, about 35 percent was with Adam Henrique and 32 percent was with the fourth line (basically when McDavid, Draisaitl or Henrique weren’t on the ice). About 23 percent was with Leon Draisaitl and Nurse played the least often with McDavid’s line, as that top line has exclusively been deployed with the Evan Bouchard/Mattias Ekholm pairing – a five-man unit pretty much all season.

Since those first ten games Nurse’s deployment has significantly changed, with more of his time being spent with Draisaitl, and whoever is on the second line, and less time with the third and fourth lines. The table below splits Nurse’s season between his first ten games (up until October 30) and the last fourteen games (between October 31 and December 7). Note that Nurse did miss a few games with a head injury.

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What we see here is that Nurse’s overall proportion of ice time with Draisaitl has significantly increased from about 23 percent in the first ten games to just under 40 percent in the last fourteen games – essentially creating a second five-man unit for the coaching staff to deploy. Nurse’s proportion of ice time with Henrique has dropped from 34 percent to 26 percent. And his time with the fourth-line players dropped from 33 percent to just under 11 percent.

This re-adjustment of Nurse’s deployment makes a lot of sense as he’s now playing more often with a second line who he was performing well within the first ten games of the season. One of my findings back in late October was that while Nurse dragged the performance numbers of most of the forwards down, his numbers remained respectable with Draisaitl, Podkolzin and Arvidsson – the group that basically formed the second line. So far things are going well as Nurse is not only performing well in his increased minutes with Draisaitl and the second line, but also playing much better in the minutes with the depth players.

It’d be worth asking the Oilers coaching staff if this actually was a strategic plan to help Nurse’s performance numbers improve. And if players like Nurse, who are accustomed to playing with high-end players tend to play down to the level of their linemates. My thought is when a defenceman like Nurse is out with a fourth line, for example, they may be conserving their energy and risk-taking for when they get to play with higher-end linemates, but that’s something a coach or player can speak to.

For now, it’s interesting to see how a coaching staff has adjusted a player’s deployment, and potentially used data and underlying shot-share numbers to assist with decision-making. Recognizing deficiencies, identifying solutions, and having the courage to carry them out is critical for a team pushing for championship. Hopefully, there’s more to come – especially for a roster that hasn’t quite reached its potential yet.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Also posted at Oilersnation.

Tracking the Western conference – As of November 30, 2024

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Much better results from the Edmonton Oilers this month as they moved from tenth in the west to seventh currently sitting with a points percentage of 0.583. They finished November with a record of 8-4-1, and ranked fourth in the league in terms of points percentage (0.654) only behind Minnesota, Toronto and Washington. What’s interesting is that their goal-differential during this recent stretch has only been even (28 goals for, 28 goals against). Considering their strong shot-share numbers, it probably should have been better. Could have also used some better goaltending. But all that matters for now are the points being accumulated, and the rise in the standings.

Below are the current even-strength (5v5) numbers for each team in the western conference (sorted by points percentage), including goal-share results as well as the shot-share metrics that give us a sense of which teams have the right processes in place and if the results are sustainable or not. At the end of the table are each team’s shooting percentage and save percentage. I’ve also applied a basic heat map to each metric to show which teams are doing well or struggling relative to their conference foes (i.e., green is good, red is bad). You can also find a description of each metric at the end of this article. Please note that the shot-share metrics are score and venue adjusted based on Natural Stat Trick’s methodology.

We’re starting to see teams fall into their places, just based on what their shot share numbers have been like. For example, Edmonton and Colorado had good shot-share numbers last month and ranked poorly. But things have turned around for both clubs in the last month, and they’ve gained ground in the west. And we’ve seen teams like Calgary and Anaheim who were getting outshot regularly but getting good results last month, start to crash down back to earth.

We’re also starting to see which teams have issues to address in net, especially those with championship aspirations. Edmonton, Colorado, Vegas and Vancouver may need to keep an eye on the goalie market, and it’ll be interesting to see which of them can turn things around.

Edmonton and Colorado also have their even-strength scoring issues to address, as both rank near the bottom the league when it comes to finishing chances. Colorado is also relying heavily on their special teams to bail their even-strength play out.

Also do wonder if we’ll see Winnipeg and especially Vegas fall in the standings, as both clubs have had issues controlling the flow of play, and rely heavily either on their goaltending (Winnipeg) or ability to finish chances (Vegas).

And I do think we’ll see Utah start to climb up. They’re posting solid shot-share numbers and have one of the best even-strength goal-shares in the league. The issue for them is that their special teams have been terrible. Their powerplay is generating very few chances and goals. And their penalty kill allows one of the highest rates of shots against, and is relying heavily on their goaltending to allow an average rate of goals against. If they can figure out special teams, they could be very good.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Glossary:

  • Points-percentage (Point%) – The total points accumulated divided by the points that were available, including extra time.
  • Corsi for percentage (CF%) – The proportion of all the shot attempts the team generated and allowed that the team generated (i.e., corsi for/(corsi for + corsi against). This is used as a proxy for possession and is the best at predicting a team’steam’s future share of goals (GF%). (Source: Hockey Great Tapes – Draglikepull)
  • Fenwick for percentage (FF%) – The proportion of all the unblocked shot attempts the team generated and allowed that the team generated (i.e., Fenwick for/(Fenwick for + aenwick against). This is used as a proxy for shot quality and considers shot blocking a repeatable skill.
  • Expected goals for percentage (xGF%) – This is a weighting placed on every unblocked shot based on the probability of the shot becoming a goal. This depends on the type of shot, location and uses historical shot and goals data to come up with the probability for each unblocked shot.
  • Goals for percentage (GF%) – The proportion of all the goals that the team scored and allowed that the team generated (i.e., Goals for/(Goals for + goals against).
  • Shooting percentage (SH%) – The percentage of the team’steam’s shots on goal that became goals (i.e., total goals divided by the total shots on goal).
  • Save percentage (SV%) – The percentage of the team’steam’s shots on goal against that were saved (i.e., 1-(totals goals allowed divided by the total shots on goal against)).

Confidence levels

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The Edmonton Oilers currently rank 16th in the league with a 0.545 points percentage, and have been pretty mid at even-strength (5v5). Their goal differential has been steadily improving, but they’re currently at -3 (43 goals for, 46 goals against). They’re only shooting at 7.05 percent (26th in the league) and have a team save percentage of 90.25 percent (23rd in the league). Note that the league average shooting percentage over the last three seasons has been 8.55 percent and the save percentage has been 91.47 percent. More on that in a second.

The Oilers are currently posting some excellent shot-share numbers, near the top of the league when it comes to critical metrics like Corsi For percentage and Expected Goals For percentage. So in a perfect world, their current goal-share of 48.31 percent eventually reaches somewhere around 53 to 55 percent, which is around where they were last season and the prior three seasons. Getting there is going to require the team and save percentage bouncing back. But how much confidence should we have in one or both of those things happening?

Based just on what I’ve seen from the Oilers, I have a lot more confidence in the team’s shooting percentage turning around. They have the top end talent, they have some depth pieces who have a good track record of scoring goals. And they’ve been relatively healthy, but we’ll wait to see what the long-term prognosis is for Hyman and Arviddson. The goaltending on the other hand has been pretty suspect for a while now, and there’s been enough mediocre stretches to indicate that goaltending is never going to be truly elite. But are there numbers to back this up?

First, here’s a look at the Oilers cumulative team shooting percentage at even-strength this season and last season (2023/24). The gray line across represents the league average shooting percentage from the previous three seasons (2021-2024). What stands out here is that while the Oilers didn’t do a great job converting their chances early on last season, they eventually improved and were above league average rates for the most part. Not sure if the Oilers can replicate that this season, but with the talent up front, and a decent supporting cast, it’s more than likely.

Goaltending on the other hand had some issues last season, and the best they could ever reach was league average. Not a lot of times was the goaltending one of the league’s best last season, so it’s hard to expect them to steal games this year or go on a long stretch of high-end goaltending. Especially since it’s the same two goalies as last season. The most we can reasonably expect from Skinner and Pickard is league-average, and a lot has to break right even for that.

I do wonder what the Oilers front office is thinking and what they have more confidence in bouncing back: the team save percentage or the team shooting percentage? It’s clear both areas have cost them wins this season and there’s a sense that it’s the offensive side of things that have management more concerned. My thought is that the goaltending is what needs an upgrade, and hopefully soon considering the high expectations for the team.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Here’s what’s behind Jeff Skinner’s early-season struggles

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It’s been a tough start to the season for Edmonton Oilers forward Jeff Skinner.

In his first seventeen games since signing a one-year, $3 million deal with the Oilers in the summer, Skinner has scored three goals and made three assists, all at even-strength. His on-ice goal-differential at even-strength is currently -5 (6 goals for, 11 goals against), which translates to a 35 percent goals-for percentage that currently ranks second last among Edmonton’s forwards. Considering he’s played the sixth most minutes on the team (217) and ranks sixth in average ice time per game at even-strength (12.79), his results are a problem that’s hard to ignore.

Over the last few games, the coaching staff has started to sit Skinner more often at even-strength. In the last two games, Skinner has averaged less than nine minutes, which is about 17 percent of the Oilers total even-strength time.  That’s well below the previous fifteen games where he’s averaged about 13 minutes a game, and 26 percent of the Oilers total even-strength time. The table below shows Skinner’s proportion of ice time per game in blue and the actual ice time per game in orange.

A graph showing how Jeff Skinner's ice time and proportion of ice as an Edmonton Oiler has been gradually declining at even-strength.

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There are a couple of major issues with Skinner that have likely played a role in his decreased ice time.

One, Skinner just isn’t producing at the level and consistency that management was probably expecting from him. He’s scored three times on 44 shots so far – which is a shooting percentage of 6.82 percent. That’s well below the 10.98 shooting percentage he’s posted over his previous five regular seasons, and the 10.65 percent he’s posted over his fourteen-year career.  The Oilers are currently near the bottom of the league in terms of team shooting percentage (6.68 percent) and are relying on Skinner to help turn those even-strength results around.

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The other issue is that Skinner’s on-ice numbers at even-strength, relative to his team’s numbers, have been poor so far. Corsi (or shot attempts) and Expected Goals help us understand how well the team does at controlling the flow of play and out-chancing opponents with specific players on the ice. And it helps us uncover who could be helping drive play and opportunities for a team, and who might be dragging the team down.

Skinner would currently fall under this latter category as the team is posting an Expected Goals For percentage of 52.45 percent with him on the ice, which isn’t bad. But his team’s share of Expected Goals jumps to 57.98 percent when he’s on the bench. Below is a table with all of the Oilers’ forwards on-ice relative to team numbers, sorted by average ice time per game. A basic heat map is applied to each metric (green is good, red is bad) to give a sense of how each player compares to their teammates.

A table showing each Edmonton Oilers forward's relative to team numbers at even-strength this season.

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One issue with Skinner is that the team allows a significantly higher number of shots and chances against whenever he’s on the ice. For instance, without him on the ice, the Oilers allow about 23 shots against per hour. But when Skinner is on the ice, this rate jumps by about 25% to 30 shots against per hour. He’s one of the worst defensive forwards on the team, which isn’t overly surprising considering his previous teams have often allowed more shots when he’s on the ice. The difference in prior seasons was that he would help drive more offence and generate chances. But since he’s not having the same impact and the fact that his shooting percentage is down, he’s not providing a whole lot of value for the Oilers.

Worth noting that Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is also posting similar on-ice numbers as Skinner at even-strength, as the team tends to see a lot of chances against when he’s deployed. And it should probably be addressed by the coaching staff, considering he gets a lot of time in the top six with the star players. But because Nugent-Hopkins is on the first powerplay and kills penalties and has a +1 goal differential at even-strength, his underlying issues are likely going to be overlooked. At least for now.

As for Skinner, it’s understandable why the coaching staff has recently cut his minutes. His defensive play this season has been an ongoing issue, and it’s not just a couple of bad plays here and there that have led to this situation. Hopefully, there’s a plan in place to squeeze as much value out of Skinner as possible. But there’s also the harsh reality that Skinner’s defensive play has been a long-term issue over his previous seasons. And considering his age and the fact that he’s played over 1,000 NHL games, it’s hard to expect his defensive numbers to improve anytime soon.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Also posted at Oilersnation.