Month: October 2024

Diving into Darnell Nurse’s struggles to start the Oilers’ season

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There are a lot of reasons why things are going sideways right now for the Edmonton Oilers. And it’s happening at a team level, in every game state, and at individual levels.

Despite doing a very good job at controlling the flow of play and getting a good proportion of the scoring chances at even-strength (even when the score is close), the Oilers are having trouble finishing chances and stopping pucks. Their special teams have also been terrible, costing them wins. They’re currently one of the worst teams in the league at generating chances on the powerplay, even with the same group and talent-level as last season. And while the penalty kill has been fine at limiting chances against, they can’t get enough saves from their goaltenders.

One player in particular who has struggled in the first ten games this season has been defenceman Darnell Nurse. With him on the ice at even-strength (5v5), the Oilers are posting a Corsi For percentage of 49.05 percent and an Expected Goals For percentage of 44.60 percent – some of the worst numbers on the team. Without him on the ice, these numbers improve significantly, with the team’s Corsi For percentage improving by 18 percent (up to a 59.8 Corsi For percentage) and the Expected Goals For percentage improving by 24 percent (58.52). When you combine his poor-on-ice shot-share numbers with the team’s very shaky goaltending, it’s no wonder that Nurse’s on-ice goal share of 33% (3 goals for, 6 goals against) is one of the worst on the team.

And it’s far below what any management group would expect from one of the highest-paid defencemen in the league.

What’s also been eye-opening is how much the Oilers forwards struggle to control the flow of play at even-strength when they have to share the ice with Nurse. When we compare every forward’s on-ice Corsi For percentage with Nurse and without Nurse, we see only two players being able to weather Nurse’s deficiencies: Zach Hyman and Connor McDavid (just barely).

The graph below sorts the forwards from those who have played the most even-strength minutes with Nurse to those who have played the fewest. The table shows each player’s time on ice with Nurse, their Corsi For percentage with Nurse and their Corsi For percentage without him.

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What stands out here is that Nurse has typically been playing with third-line players like Adam Henrique, who he has played his most minutes, Connor Brown and Mattias Janmark. And because of Nurse and the minutes they have to play with him, these three forwards have seen their on-ice shot-share numbers take a hit and rank as some of the worst on the team. But when they’re away from Nurse, their numbers drastically improve, which in turn helps increase their odds of outscoring opponents as they’re spending more time with the puck and away from their own zone.

We do also see a few players who do okay with Nurse, such as Arvidsson and Podkolzin. Their on-ice numbers with Nurse take a hit, but they don’t drop below the break-even mark and remain respectable. This ability to survive the Nurse minutes could explain why both of them are getting more minutes with Draisaitl on the second line. The coaching staff needs to do everything possible to mitigate the risks associated with deploying Nurse and have to find as many internal solutions as possible. At least until management can address one of the biggest and most expensive problems on the team.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Also posted at Oilersnation.

Slow start, sketchy goaltending and finding defence pairs

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Not the best start for the Edmonton Oilers, who currently rank seventh in the Pacific division with a points percentage of 0.400 (2-3-0), and 13th in the western conference. Early days of course, but what’s really stood out to me are the high profile losses.

After all the hype in the off-season about the team, the Oilers get crushed by Winnipeg on home ice in their season opener. Then they lose on the national stage on Hockey Night in Canada to Chicago. And then they lose to Calgary, of all teams, on home ice. The Oilers can rip off a long winning streak to make up for the lost points, but it’ll be hard to forget this start.

Goaltending has again been a factor in the team’s poor start to the season, as it ranks as one of the worst in the league in every game-state. What was especially alarming were some of the comments from Stuart Skinner after the first game where he talked about how fast the game felt and being unprepared. (Source: Edmonton Oilers)

I think that the game was a little too quick for me and I just wasn’t up to speed and that’s on me just in the way that I was playing. Maybe it was too much aggression on my part where I probably should have played, you know, read the game probably a little bit better.

Thought this was a bit of a red flag, and reflects poorly on the coaching staff who had plenty of time in training camp and the pre-season games to get everyone prepared – especially the goaltenders. Makes you wonder what the pace was like for the goaltending and if the coaching staff, from the head coach to the goalie coach, were aligned.

The other interesting comments regarding Skinner came from analyst, and former goalie, Steve Valiquette on the Real Kyper and Bourne show highlighting how poorly Skinner performs with chances on the rush.

We had four data scientists looking at all of our data this year. I really wanted to get to understand hockey better. And over the past decade we’ve identified now three predictors that lead to Stanley Cup success. You have to have strong special teams. You have to have settled offense at five on five. And you’ve got to have a strong odd man rush – and that’s for and against.

The area that Stuart Skinner really struggles with is the east to west game. Whether it’s at five-on-five in-zone or off the rush, his movement side-to-side is – to be fair, and it’s tough to say because you’re talking about the top 64 guys in the league – but he’s the worst of those 64. The nicest way to put it is he lacks confidence and he doesn’t get east to west well.

If that’s the case, there’s no wonder the Oilers coaching staff spent so much time last season reducing those rush chances against. And they’ll have to continue doing so, even with a lot of new players across the roster.

Speaking of which, below are how the skaters have done so far this season at even-strength (5v5). The tables are separated by position and sorted by ice-time. A simple heat map has been applied to show how each player compares with their own group.

First the forwards.

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The on-ice numbers mostly align with what I’ve noticed. Some of the more experienced, top six guys like Hyman and especially Nugent-Hopkins have been underperforming. I don’t think Nugent-Hopkins can function as a sole-center on a line any more, so I’d keep him with either McDavid or Draisaitl. The issue is that Draisaitl is also someone who needs to be on a line with a second centerman, so he can’t be on his own either. The Oilers will almost always have a line that other teams could exploit at even-strength.

The Oilers are getting decent minutes from some of the new additions like Arvidsson, Podkolzin and Skinner, as well as Henrique. The team is doing better with them on the ice, and the results should start to turn around. It’ll be interesting to see how the coaching staff deploys this group, and if they have the courage to experiment a little more.

And below are the on-ice numbers for the Oilers defencemen.

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The top pairing of Ekholm and Bouchard is quite solid and helping tilt the ice. And Kulak has been steady with whoever his partner has been. The concern remains with the second pairing as Nurse has continued to struggle, with the team more often playing without the puck when he’s on the ice. As I mentioned prior to the season starting, the rest of the defensive options have been depth players for the majority of their careers, so it’s hard seeing any of them move up the depth chart. None have shown the ability to help boost their defensive partner’s on-ice numbers, which is something Nurse will need for that second pair to be successful.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Couple thoughts ahead of a pressure-filled 2024/25 regular season

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It’s been a little weird seeing how much hype there is around the Edmonton Oilers heading into the season. They’re obviously in that championship contender category, coming off a deep playoff run this past spring. And they have the high-end talent that will help drive results.

I’m just seeing a few too many question marks around the roster, so I’m not as confident as the general public about the Oilers this season.

For one, I’m not sold on the goaltending as Stuart Skinner has had a lot of ups and downs over the course of his career. I view him as an average goalie, not someone who can steal wins like some of the other elite level goalies. And don’t get me wrong, average goaltending can be good enough. I just don’t think the Oilers did enough to mitigate the risk of his play falling off, like what’s happened to him early on in regular seasons. Pickard as a backup is fine, but can you trust him for an extended period in case Skinner needs time away? I’m not completely sold.

The other issue is around the third and fourth lines, which looks significantly slower than last season. I don’t like the idea of Henrique centering Janmark and Brown. And then a fourth line with two players over 37 years old. Hoping Podkolzin can make an impact, and you have Philp and Savoie as options down the road. But for now, that bottom six is a perfect target for opposing teams. I think you need some more speed and skill to be effective in those minutes. Keep in mind too – guys like McLeod, Holloway and Foegele posted some of the best on-ice shot-share numbers for Edmonton last season, and were a big reason why the bottom six was improving. It’ll be interesting to see if the team’s shot-share numbers at even-strength take a hit, especially when McDavid isn’t on the ice.

The Oilers top six is arguably one of the best in the league. But there’s a few guys that are at risk of regression. Hyman for one, likely won’t reach 50 goals again based on his career shooting percentage levels. Nugent-Hopkins was pretty quiet in the playoffs and has had periods throughout the last few seasons where his on-ice shot share numbers were lower than expected. I’m also tempering my expectations for Arvidsson whose skillset is very valuable when he’s healthy. Coming off a shortened season, you don’t know how quickly a player can get back up to speed – similar to what happened to Connor Brown last year. Draisaitl is also someone who I’ve always felt needs a centerman on his line to be effective, so I don’t know how well he’ll work with J. Skinner and Arvidsson. Skinner, while very productive, is also going to frustrate some with his defensive play. Expecting some line-tinkering early on in the year.

As for the blue line, I’m not quite sure what to expect. The team is taking a risk relying on Emberson, Stecher, Dermott and J. Brown to be regulars. Emberson has the most potential but lacks experience. Stecher, Dermott and J. Brown have a history of being depth guys at best, so it’s hard to imagine them taking on larger roles over an extended period for Edmonton. It’ll also be interesting to see which defenceman take on penalty kill minutes. Assumed Emberson and J. Brown were going to replace Ceci’s and Desharnais’ minutes. But now with Brown sent down, it might have to be Dermott.

It’s going to be a fascinating season for the Edmonton Oilers who have a lot of pressure on them to win a championship. And if things go sideways early on, it’ll be critical that the coaching staff, and potentially management, act quickly.

The Oilers need to avoid having bad start for the third season in a row

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The Edmonton Oilers head into the 2024/25 regular season with high expectations, and understandably so. Their group of forwards have two of the best players in the world in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, along with a good supporting cast. Their defence has some high-end talent in Evan Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm. And the team is coming off a playoff run where they were one win away from a championship.

Plenty will need to go right for the team to make another deep run in the playoffs. But before even getting there, the team really needs to have a good start to the regular season, which is something they’ve had trouble with the last two years now. A poor start has many downstream effects, including having to overplay players in important positions, like goaltending, just to make up ground in the standings. And not being able to rest star players to keep them fresh for the playoffs. A good start can also increase their odds of winning their division and securing home-ice advantage for the post-season. Something that hasn’t happened since the dynasty years.

Recent history

Two years ago, the Edmonton Oilers started the 2022/23 regular season with ten wins and ten losses in their first 20 games, ranking 20th in the league with a 0.500 points percentage. They were outscored 66-72 in all situations and had the fifth worst goal-share (42.86%) at even-strength (5v5) getting outscored 33-44. And while their powerplay was one of the best in the league, all their goals were wiped away by their penalty kill that allowed the fourth highest rate of goals against.

And last season’s start was even worse. In their first twenty games, they had seven wins, twelve losses and one overtime loss. This had them 29th in the league with a 0.375 points percentage, and only three points ahead of San Jose in the Pacific division. They were outscored 66-74 in all situations, and 38-46 at even-strength. That’s a goal-share of only 45.24%, which had them 26th in the league. And they had the same issue on special teams where the powerplay was outstanding (+16 goal differential), but their penalty kill was erasing all their success (-15 goal differential). Things eventually turned around, but it was a massive lift.

So what were the factors that caused these poor starts for the Edmonton Oilers?

Goaltending

The Oilers goaltending has struggled out of the gate two seasons in a row. In the first twenty games of the 2022/23 season, their team save percentage in all situations was 89.57 percent, which ranked 23rd in the league and 10th in the western conference. And in the first twenty games of the 2023/24 season, their team save percentage was 87.11 percent, which was 31st in the league and dead last in the western conference. A lot of the problems were on the penalty kill, especially earlier in the 2023/24 season where despite the Oilers doing a good job limiting the rate of shots and chances against, the goaltending was terrible ranking 25th in the league with a save percentage of 81.82 percent.

Skinner has the starting role, but it’s critical that the Oilers have a solid backup option ready in case he falters like he has in the past.

Poor finishing at even-strength

In the early parts of both seasons, the Oilers as a team had a lot of trouble burying their chances. Two seasons ago, they started the season with a 7.02 percent shooting percentage, which ranked 31st in the league. And they started last season with a 7.58 percent shooting percentage, which ranked 25th.  League average shooting percentage over the last three seasons has been 8.55 percent, and the Oilers have been right around there with an 8.77 percent shooting percentage. Considering the talent level they have and the amount of money allocated to offensive players, their shooting percentage has to be better to start the season.

Which leads to the next factor.

Star players starting poorly

Last season, Connor McDavid had a rough start relative to his own standards – specifically at even-strength. McDavid didn’t look like himself, along with other teammates, likely driven by the fact that they started training camp earlier than normal, which resulted in injuries. McDavid himself missed a couple games and put up only eight even-strength points in his first 17 games – a point per hour rate of only 1.79. For context, McDavid has posted a rate just under three points per hour over the course of his career. So, this was exceptionally low relative to his career levels. His season did turn around soon after, and he went on to dominate the rest of the season. But it was a good reminder of how critical he is to the team’s success, and how difficult it is to replace his production when he’s not at 100 percent.

A similar issue had occurred the season prior when Leon Draisaitl struggled out of the gate in 2022/23. In the first twenty games that season, Draisaitl had only nine even-strength points, which translated to a points per hour rate of 1.76. That’s well below his career points per hour rate of 2.41 and the 2.51 he’s posted over the last three seasons. One contributing factor to his lack of production early that season was how often the Oilers played without the puck when he was on the ice. His on-ice share of shots and scoring were some of the worst on the team, with his Expected Goals For percentage sitting at 44.51 percent.

It took playing more often with McDavid to give those numbers a boost and at a production level closer to what we would expect from Draisaitl. Plus he needed to get healthier. Draisaitl was coming off a significant injury sustained in the playoffs that spring – so it was understandable that he would struggle. But again, it highlighted how important he is to the team’s early-season success and the lack of depth on the roster that season.

Thoughts

It’ll be interesting to see how the Oilers start the year after making a deep run in the playoffs and turning over a significant number of players on the roster. The hope is that everyone is healthy, and that training camp has given the group enough time to implement their tactics and build familiarity with one another. Goaltending will need to be league-average, along with the team’s ability to finish their chances. And if the star players can start off strong, that should alleviate some pressure and improve the team’s odds of winning the division.

It’ll be on management and the coaching staff to not only monitor and evaluate the team’s progress, but also address issues that come up as quickly as possible. Without those risk mitigation plans in place, a poor start can potentially derail a team’s championship aspirations.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Also posted at Oilersnation.