Slow your roll

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The Edmonton Oilers 2025/26 regular season was a disappointing one as they finished with only 93 points – a 0.567 points percentage that ranked 14th in the league. Considering the previous five straight seasons of having a points percentage above 0.600, including four (kinda five) straight 100-pont seasons – this is definitely a drop off. But thanks to a weak conference, and especially a weak Pacific division where all five Pacific division playoff teams were below 0.600 and ranked 13th or lower in the league, the Oilers still managed to secure home ice advantage in the playoffs. Wild.

The Oilers lack of success was largely driven by their mediocre play at even-strength (5v5). Their -14 goal-differential and 48 percent goal-share ranked 20th in the league, which wasn’t surprising considering their Corsi For percentage barely broke even. Their share of scoring chances was a little better, and ranked in the top ten league-wide, but there was a noticeable drop off from previous seasons when they would be near the top of the league when it came to expected goal metrics.

That’s probably what’s the most troubling part about the Oilers regular season. Last year, they also had a negative goal differential at 5v5, but they were at least posting exceptional shot-share numbers, which meant the positive results were eventually going to come. This year however, it’s hard to have that same level of confidence, especially when you consider the team’s shot-share metrics are all around the 47 percent mark when McDavid or Draisaitl weren’t on the ice. The results have been just ghastly with the team posting a -31 goal differential when one of the glimmer twins aren’t deployed.

Here’s a quick look at the Oilers’ skaters, and their on-ice numbers sorted by ice time. Included is each player’s on-ice shot differential, expected goal differential and actual goal-differential. And for additional context, each player’s on-ice PDO is captured. A basic heat map is applied to show how players compare within their cohort. The key takeaway here is that the Oilers top six group is pretty good, and the rest are a bunch of blots ready to be exploited. Dickinson hasn’t been the solution for the bottom six group, and it’s hard to tell who can step up in the playoffs. The defence group has one solid pairing and the rest is a spot of bother.

The other factor to consider is the just-barely-average goaltending the Oilers are heading into the playoffs with – with Ingram taking the starter role. This is definitely an upgrade from previous seasons and bodes well for the team. But it’s a little concerning that the teams 5v5 save percentage was 88.84 percent (dead last in the league) over the course of the full season, and around the same mark over the final twenty-five games. Ingram just needs to be average, and Jarry should hopefully not see much ice time.

Quick notes on special teams. The Oilers powerplay finished the season as the league’s best, which is no surprise, scoring 11.88 goals per hour. This was largely driven by their high rate of shots and chances, which all ranked at the top. The penalty kill is where things are a little sketchy. The team finished 21st overall, allowing 8.16 goals against per hour. The team had trouble preventing shots and chances (all ranking in the bottom third of the league) and the goaltending was around league average levels. What’s interesting is that the team did do a better job at preventing shots at even-strength over the final stretch of the season, so it’s a little odd that this focus on defensive play didn’t translate to special teams.

Below are the final even-strength (5v5) numbers for each team in the western conference (sorted by points percentage), including goal-differential results as well as the shot-share metrics that give us a sense of which teams have the right processes in place and if the results are sustainable or not. At the end of the table are each team’s shooting percentage and save percentage. I’ve also applied a basic heat map to each metric to show which teams are doing well or struggling relative to their conference foes (i.e., green is good, red is bad). You can also find a description of each metric at the end of this article. Please note that the shot-share metrics are score and venue adjusted based on Natural Stat Trick’s methodology.

Again, it was a giant, chaotic joke of a Pacific division/western conference/NHL. All five Pacific teams that made the playoffs had a lower points percentage than the Washington, who had the 12th best points percentage in the league (0.579), but still missed the playoffs. Los Angeles ranked 20th in the league with 0.549 and made it. Detroit, Long Island and Columbus all had better points percentages than Los Angeles and all missed the playoffs.

Vegas, Edmonton and Anaheim all had issues in net, so the results should probably have been better considering their ability to control the flow of play. What’s interesting is that over the course of the season, there wasn’t a lot of movement among the teams, and we had a good sense of who would make it pretty early on. The teams that did catch fire and media attention often fizzled out as their underling numbers were often poor. So there really wasn’t much excitement, especially with the Pacific being so, so bad.

For reference, I’ve also put the table together for the eastern conference. Carolina, Tampa Bay and Ottawa all posted strong shot-share numbers, but it appears they’ve also had some goaltending issues. Buffalo obviously did well, but I do wonder if we see them struggle considering their shot-share numbers weren’t great and they rode the PDO pony a bit. Same with Montreal. Boston appears a little fraudulent, as does Philadelphia, so I don’t think they’ll get very far.

Obviously pulling for Edmonton because of the smart cats they have in the front office, but I’m thinking it’ll be Colorado coming out of the west and likely Carolina and Uncle Dennis representing the east.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

CBC Radio Active: Rock the bells

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Had the pleasure of joining Jessica Ng on CBC Radio Active on Friday afternoon to talk Oilers and how they’re somehow first in the Pacific division with three games to go. Full segment is here: CBC Radio Active (2026, April 10)

Topics we covered:

  • How the Oilers find themselves in first place, despite being a sub-600 points percentage team.
  • The Oilers injury issues.
  • Which teams are the ones to beat in the western conference and where the Oilers are lacking.
  • What a matchup with the Utah Mammoth could look like in the first round.
  • Other teams of note in the eastern conference, including Buffalo and Montreal.

Big thank you as always to the amazing team at CBC Edmonton for putting the show together. And for playing Rock the Bells!

Managing the Oilers penalty kill when Henrique was unavailable

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Quick follow up to an article I wrote a few weeks ago when I looked into Adam Henrique’s struggles this season. I had found that while his even-strength numbers and overall productivity have predictably declined, he was at the time having a positive influence on the team’s penalty kill. And I speculated that the Oilers penalty kill would struggle without him.

Turned out I was correct, but not for the exact reasons I had based my prediction on.

In the first 43 games of the season with Henrique healthy, the Oilers penalty kill was fairly mediocre. They were sitting 17th in the league, allowing 7.52 goals against per hour. They were allowing a lot of shots and chances against, and the goaltending was actually decent, ranking 10th with an 86 percent save percentage. But with Henrique deployed, which was the most often among forwards, the rate of shots and goals against plummeted.

So his absence was fairly substantial, and the Oilers did see their penalty kill struggle severely without him. In those 15 games with Henrique unavailable, the Oilers allowed 13 goals against per hour (12 goals in 55 minutes) – one of the highest rates in the league and a big reason why the team struggled to bank some points. What’s interesting is that the team did an okay job preventing shots against. It was actually the goaltending that completely fell apart, posting a 76 percent save percentage.

I was also curious to see how Knoblauch and the coaching staff would spread Henrique’s penalty kill minutes among the forwards. Considering Knoblauch’s lack of overall creativity with deployment and tactics, I wasn’t expecting much.

The table here lists all of the penalty killing forwards this season, sorted by their share of the total penalty kill time in the first term (the first 43 games when Henrique was healthy). Term two is the 15-game segment when Henrique was injured and unavailable. I’ve also added a column to capture the change in each players proportion in the second term compared to the first term.

So for example, Master Savoie played in 35.7 percent of the Oilers total penalty killing time when Henrique was healthy. In the second term, his total proportion slid slightly to 34.8 percent. There really was no reason to reduce his minutes considering the team does see fewer shots against when he’s out there – a great sign for the kid’s development.

The two forwards Knoblauch relied more on for the penalty kill was Janmark and McDavid. Janmark made sense as he has a lot of experience on the penalty kill and a safe bet for a risk-averse coach (even though the team sees way more shots and chances against with him on the ice). The significant increase in McDavid’s proportion of PK ice time is a little weird. Having him play the last bit of the penalty kill when the other team’s best forwards are getting a rest makes sense. But this many minutes at a real time of need reeks of panic and a lack of planning by the coaching staff. Would have preferred Podkolzin or Lazar getting more reps. Or even Mangiapane, but he’s clearly fallen out of favor with the coach.

Thankfully Henrique is back now and should help stabilize the penalty kill (and really that’s all he can do at this stage of his career). But the coaching staff, and the front office, should really have a plan in place just in case they need to move Henrique to improve the team’s depth’s performance at equal-strength.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Tracking the Western conference – As of February 28, 2026

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Below are the even-strength (5v5) numbers for each team in the western conference (sorted by points percentage), including goal-differential results as well as the shot-share metrics that give us a sense of which teams have the right processes in place and if the results are sustainable or not. At the end of the table are each team’s shooting percentage and save percentage. I’ve also applied a basic heat map to each metric to show which teams are doing well or struggling relative to their conference foes (i.e., green is good, red is bad). You can also find a description of each metric at the end of this article. Please note that the shot-share metrics are score and venue adjusted based on Natural Stat Trick’s methodology.

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Nothing else to add other than what I already posted here the other night. And no significant changes since my last western conference summary. The Pacific division is so weak right now, which makes the Oilers general malaise even more annoying. Like Vegas just got thrashed 5-0 against Pittsburgh this afternoon and Los Angeles just made another coaching change. Seattle and San Jose are phonies. And Calgary and Vancouver are, well, Calgary and Vancouver.

I know I just recently wrote about a more hybrid approach to the deadline, but it’s too tempting to just go all-in again when the path to the western conference finals looks pretty clear. The team did put Regula and Mangiapane on waivers this afternoon to get some flexibility, so something is definitely brewing.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Checking in on the Oilers checking out

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Pretty lame re-start to the season, with the Oilers losing two of their first three games since the Olympic break. This recent one against the Sharks was especially bad with the Oilers chasing the game quite a bit, posting a 41% Corsi For percentage in a 5-4 game. And please throw dirt on any end-of-road-trip excuses – contenders contend.

The Oilers are now rocking a -12 goal differential at equal strength (5v5), a 47 percent goal-share that ranks 20th in the NHL. And their underlying numbers continue to slide. In their last ten games now, the Oilers have barely broken even with shot attempts and unblocked shot attempts – and their expected goal-share is 48 percent.

There’s clearly some tactical and execution issues happening here, and a major spot of bother for the coaching staff. Adding Coffey reeks a little of desperation (and the owner wanting some straight answers about the current state), and it feels like a matter of time until more serious changes are made behind the bench.

There’s also the recurring personnel issues that haven’t been resolved all season.

  • The Oilers continue to get their teeth kicked without McDavid or Draisaitl deployed, consistently getting out-played, out-chanced and out-scored. All their on-ice shot-share metrics hover around 45 percent, while their actual goal-differential is at an abysmal -25 (!).
  • Darnell Nurse continues to be a drag on the team’s performance and results, but continues to get plenty of playing time.
  • The goaltending at even-strength currently ranks dead last in the league, with a team save percentage of 88.65 percent. Jarry has not been the answer for Edmonton (was never going to be), so hopefully Ingram can get his game together and play at a level we’ve seen him at before.

So while the coaching staff needs some tweaks, I do wonder how the Oilers front office is going to navigate the upcoming trade deadline. They clearly have to be in win-now mode, especially with McDavid and Draisaitl in their primes and with the Pacific being so weak. But there has to be a way to start addressing next season as well, and build a stronger contender than this one.

Discarding some of the older players is an obvious step. Mangiapane is pretty much done, but it’d be worth exploring what the market rate is for guys like Janmark or Lazar. They’re not difficult to replace, and the team does have some decent players in the AHL who could get a look and make a bigger impact.

There also has to be a clear directive to the coaching staff to let guys like Savoie take on bigger minutes down the stretch. It’s imperative to see what the team has in this player and to know which role(s) he’ll take on in 2026-27. Moving him out of the top six as quickly as the coaching staff has done isn’t helping.

If there’s a deadline acquisition, it has to be someone who can slide into that second pairing with Walman to stabilize things and to not be a drag on the team’s forward’s performance – from first line to fourth line. A medium-term plan to replace Nurse has to be in motion at this point. The issues with Nurse have gone on for way too long. And while I appreciate his draft pedigree and his leadership role on the team – it’s not translating to actual on-ice results.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Evaluating a depreciating asset: Checking in on Adam Henrique’s season

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Back in early September of 2025, I had identified Oilers veteran forward Adam Henrique as someone who could potentially see their ice time decrease to make room for some of the younger players.

This was because Henrique:

  • had been seeing his point production decline;
  • been negatively impacting his team’s ability to control shots and scoring chances at even-strength;
  • hadn’t had a positive impact on the special teams, specifically the penalty kill, and
  • was in the last year of his contract.

You can read the full article here: Depreciating assets (2025, September 13)

With the news that Henrique is being place on injured reserve and unavailable until after the Olympic break in late February, I wanted to see if his decline has continued this season based on the three areas I had originally focused on. And if the Oilers are better or worse without him in the lineup. He’s been a regular for the team this season, unlike some other veterans who have seen time in the press box despite having multi-season contracts.

Productivity at even-strength (five-on-five)

This season, Henrique has only one goal and four assists at even-strength (5v5) in a predominantly bottom-six role. That translates to only 0.63 points per hour, which is part of a continued decline for the 36 year old.

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Henrique currently ranks 16th out of 17 Oiler forwards who have played at least 50 minutes, only ahead of Trent Frederic. This is beyond replacement-level production now.

Negative impact on the team’s even-strength performance

We saw over the last few seasons the negative impact Henrique would have on his team’s ability to control the flow of play and scoring chances. With him on the ice, the Oilers would spend more time without the puck and chasing the game, and almost every player on the team saw their on-ice numbers take a hit when Henrique was deployed with them.

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This season Henrique has continued to have a negative impact on the team’s offensive opportunities, but it hasn’t been as bad as previous seasons. That’s progress, I guess. But it’s part of a continued downward trend, and hard to ignore. The entire bottom six group has been a dumpster this season at evens, and Henrique has been a major part of that.

  • [Update] Worth noting that part of Henrique’s slide is the amount of time he’s played with Trent Frederic who is having a terrible season. Together, they’ve posted on-ice shot-share numbers below 44%, and when Frederic is away from Henrique, it’s not much better. But when Henrique is on the ice away from Frederic, his on-ice shot-share numbers are at or above 50 percent. Thanks to @gofortwoelks on BlueSky for the heads up!

Not so special on special teams

Okay, so here’s where things are a little interesting. The last few seasons, Henrique has not been great on the penalty kill with the team allowing a higher rate of shots against with him on the ice. This year, however, the Oilers actually see a drop in the rate of shots and chances against with Henrique deployed, which could explain why he’s leading the forward group in ice time on the penalty. And why he has a regular spot in the line up.

For context, the Oilers penalty kill ranks 17th in the league, allowing 7.52 goals against per hour. Main reason for the mediocre results: they allow the 11th highest rate of shots against per hour (56.21) and the eighth highest rate of unblocked shot attempts per hour (a proxy for scoring chances) with 85.07. The team’s goaltending has actually been decent, ranking 10th in the league with a 86.63 percent save percentage.

With Henrique on the ice for the penalty kill, the team allows a rate of 42.71 shots against per hour. Without him, this rate jumps by over 30 percent to 63.77 shots against per hour. That’s a significant difference, which should raise some concern for the team as they’ll need their penalty kill results to be strong – especially with the team struggling to outscore teams at even-strength. Right now, the Oilers have allowed 6.70 goals against per hour with Henrique out there, which is lower than the team rate, and significant lower than what Nugent-Hopkins is posting (12.08 goals against per hour, driven largely by a rate of 73.69 (!) shots against per hour). If RNH is taking on more penalty kill minutes, expect the results to get much worse.

So while the Oilers should be able to handle Henrique’s absence at even-strength, and will likely be better off without him in the lineup, the penalty kill performance and results are likely going to get worse.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Debunk the funk

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While things look great for the Edmonton Oilers – currently sitting first in the Pacific division with 46 points in 41 games – it’s not likely to last very long. Their actual points percentage is 0.561, which is third behind Vegas and Anaheim in the Pacific, sixth in the west and sixteenth in the league. Their actual goal-share in all-situations is +1, but that’s largely driven by their success on the powerplay. At even-strength, their goal-differential is -13, a goal-share of only 46 percent that ranks 26th in the league. And all of their underlying shot-share metrics at even-strength are barely at the break-even mark.

The Oilers are nowhere near where they were last season at this time. And it’s not what you’d expect from a team with championship aspirations.

The good news is that the rest of the Pacific division is a bit a joke right now. Vegas currently has the best goal differential with 0 (yes zero, not a typo). And only Los Angeles has a goal-share above 50 percent at even-strength. Edmonton has shown signs of progress in December, but they still lack that consistent play and production that’s expected from a high-end team.

Western conference context

Below are the even-strength (5v5) numbers for each team in the western conference (sorted by points percentage). These include goal-share results and shot-share metrics, which give us a sense of which teams have strong underlying processes — and which are over- or underperforming. At the end of the table, you’ll find each team’s shooting and save percentages. A simple heat map highlights which clubs are excelling (green) or struggling (red). Note: all shot-share metrics are score- and venue-adjusted per Natural Stat Trick’s methodology.

The Oilers have definitely made some progress since my last check-in at the end of November when they were 11th in the west with a 0.519 points percentage, even surpassing the cluster of teams that I had predicted. I’d have a lot more confidence in them if they can string together a set of ten games or so where their shot-share numbers are above 53 percent and their goaltending improves. They can’t string more than two wins together, which could open the door for another team to eventually pass them.

Again, the only real dominant team in the west is Colorado, with Dallas and Minnesota riding some excellent goaltending to stick around in that contender cluster. Vegas and Anaheim should be able to stick around just based on their underlying shot-share numbers, but they also appear to have some goaltending issues. Los Angeles is in that group as well, and have the goaltending which could propel them higher. And it’ll be interesting to see if Nashville, Calgary or Utah can leap frog some of the pretenders to lock up that eighth spot.

Evaluating individual players

Here’s a quick look at the Oilers’ skaters, and their on-ice numbers so far sorted by ice time. Included is each player’s on-ice shot differential, expected goal differential and actual goal-differential. And for additional context, each player’s on-ice PDO is captured. A basic heat map is applied to show how players compare within their cohort.

Not a whole lot to note since the last check-in. Mangiapane’s been healthy scratched, which isn’t surprising since his performance and results have been poor. And as mentioned last time, Savoie was likely to continue sliding just based on his on-ice numbers. He’s even seeing his minutes cut back, which I don’t think is a bad idea. He could use a little reset and the coaching staff could test out some wingers on that second line with Draisaitl and Podkolzin.

The bottom six is a dump at this point. In an ironic 911 minutes without McDavid or Draisaitl on the ice at even-strength this season, the Oilers have been outscored 19-43 – a pathetic goal-share of only 30.7 percent (-24 goal differential). Remember- these depth players get 45 percent of the team’s total ice time and this is the best that they can muster. And it’s hard to believe things are going to turn around any time soon. Their shot-share numbers without one or both of the Glimmer Twins deployed only hovers around 45 percent. Now might be a good time to promote some of the kids in the AHL to see what they have and if they can help turn things around.

Nothing really noteworthy on the back-end. Nurse is still a problem that needs to be managed. And the team desperately needs Walman back to help stabilize things. I do suspect that the bottom six is struggling because of the instability on the back-end, but would need to dig in further.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Holding game

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The Edmonton Oilers finally showed some signs of life on the weekend with a 4-0 win over the Kraken in Seattle. Easily the most complete game they’ve played, with the team doing a much better job at controlling the flow of play, generating chances and playing well defensively as a unit.

Hopefully it’s a sign of things to come, because they definitely have some work to do to get back into proper form. They currently sit tenth in the western conference with a points percentage of 0.519, and tied for fifth in the Pacific division.

The struggles remain at even-strength (5v5), where the Oilers have posted a -16 goal differential and a 43 percent goal-share that currently ranks 30th in the league. Their underlying shot-share numbers have been pretty mediocre all season. Their team shooting percentage is 23rd, and their team save percentage is dead last. Thankfully their powerplay has kept their season afloat, generating the second highest rate of goals per hour. And it appears sustainable as the club has been generating some of the highest rate of shots and scoring chances with the man-advantage.

Western conference context

Below are the even-strength (5v5) numbers for each team in the western conference (sorted by points percentage). These include goal-share results and shot-share metrics, which give us a sense of which teams have strong underlying processes — and which are over- or underperforming. At the end of the table, you’ll find each team’s shooting and save percentages. A simple heat map highlights which clubs are excelling (green) or struggling (red). Note: all shot-share metrics are score- and venue-adjusted per Natural Stat Trick’s methodology.

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Colorado is just lapping the league right now, it’s pretty fun to watch. Aside from them though, there’s no one that really stands out in the west. Teams like Dallas and Minnesota are having a lot of success, but they’re due for some regression when some of the players eventually cool off. Anaheim has been a nice surprise, and they along with LA and Vegas appear to have some staying power. Utah could make a run if they figure out their special teams. It really is a blessing for Edmonton that the rest of the conference has been pretty tame. Seattle, Chicago and San Jose should drop off shortly, and Winnipeg looks a little phony too. Nashville isn’t going anywhere. And Vancouver and Calgary can eat dirt.

The Oilers basically have to be a top five team in the league going forward to secure a playoff spot, which might be possible considering the star power they have. But they’ll need to fix up a lot of their tactical issues and get (even) league-average goaltending to have a real shot. Again we saw some positives against Seattle, but they’ll need to string together a winning streak to make some ground. I’m waiting to see a set of ten straight games where their shot-share numbers are above 53 percent (like last season) to have confidence that they’re back in form.

Evaluating individual players

Here’s a quick look at the Oilers’ skaters, and their on-ice numbers so far sorted by ice time. Included is each player’s on-ice shot differential, expected goal differential and actual goal-differential. And for additional context, each player’s on-ice PDO is captured. A basic heat map is applied to show how players compare within their cohort.

On the backend, Nurse continues to struggle as the team just bleeds chances when he’s on the ice. He basically needs to be stapled to one or both of the glimmer twins to provide value, but he remains a liability. Kulak and Regula have also posted some ugly results, but both could eventually bounce back once the defence is more in sync with the forwards. Bouchard and Ekholm will be fine.

Up front, Mangiapane’s results really stand out, but it may continue considering his underlying numbers. Same with Frederic. And I do expect Savoie’s results to slide a little – maybe the grind is getting to him. Hyman’s clearly not in top form yet, but with more home games coming up, I do expect better underlying numbers and results. Could also be the fact that he’s carrying around Frederic who tends to drag most linemates he has. Also – temper any expectations on Clattenburg. Fun player to watch and his development will be a story. But he’s also a raw rookie with plenty to learn in the AHL, so there’s no harm sending him down and getting a look at some other prospects in Bakersfield who are thriving right now.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Systemic power outage

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Pretty dreadful situation the Edmonton Oilers are currently in as they sit fifth in the Pacific with a 0.524 points percentage and a -12 goal-differential. Their situation is especially dire at even-strength (5v5) where they currently have a goal-differential of -16, a goal-share of only 41% that’s second worst in the league.

Key issues at even-strength:

  • Corsi for percentage is 49% (17th in the league)
  • Expected goals for percentage is 47% (25th)
  • Shooting percentage is 7.88% (28th)
  • Save percentage is 87.55% (32nd)

There are also the current issues that have come up countless times now in the Oilers’ McDavid era – and well documented on this website and elsewhere:

  • Struggling to perform and produce without McDavid on the ice
  • Playing too conservatively when holding any sort of lead.
  • Too many shots from the defencemen
  • Reverting to the McDavid/Draisaitl pairing when under any duress.
  • Lack of opportunity for younger/developing players.
  • Horrible on-ice numbers from players who have a history of posting horrible on-ice numbers, and continuing to overplay them (i.e., Nurse)

This is more than enough evidence to suggest that the team needs significant changes, and I wouldn’t be shy to look at the coaching staff first. The roster has had a lot of changes, and they were without Hyman for the start of the season. But there’s enough talent on the roster to ice a consistent, competitive team. If the team was at least posting some respectable shot-share and expected goal numbers, I’d let the results slide and expect some regression. But because the team is struggling to generate offence, which is what the coaching staff has direct influence on, it might be time for a coaching change.

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Digging into the offensive numbers a little more, it’s quite alarming that the team is only generating 38 unblocked shot attempts per hour, which ranks 22nd in the league. Last season, the Oilers ranked third with 45 unblocked shot attempts per hour, only behind Carolina and Florida. The season before that, the Oilers were second in the league with 46, only behind Carolina. The Edmonton Oilers have basically seen their rate of unblocked shot attempts drop by about 17 percent from the last few seasons.

What should really be unsettling for the Oilers front office is the fact that even Connor McDavid’s on-ice numbers have dropped. His current on-ice rate of 43 shot attempts per hour is a steep drop from 52, which he posted last season, and 55 that he posted the season before. In short, the best player in the world has seen his on-ice rate of unblocked shot attempts drop by around 20 percent in this coaching staff’s system. And yes, even without Nurse, his on-ice rate of unblocked shot attempts is still only 45.

Knoblauch and his group have really dropped the ball this season and will need to make some critical adjustments. The results at even-strength are some of the worst in the league, and a lot of the underlying issues fall within the coaching staff’s scope of expertise. There’s still time to turn things around, but it’s going to require less stubbornness and panicking – attributes that this head coach might have trouble shaking off.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Adjusting the blinders

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Sluggish start to the regular season with the Edmonton Oilers currently sitting fifth in the Pacific division with a points percentage of 0.542 after 12 games. A 5-4-3 record doesn’t exactly inspire confidence – especially with the team shooting and save percentage below league average levels and a number of players in high-profile positions struggling at different points.

But it’s important to supplement any evaluation of the team’s current results with predictive metrics — the kind that help us understand where things might be headed.

Western conference context

Below are the even-strength (5v5) numbers for each team in the western conference (sorted by points percentage). These include goal-share results and shot-share metrics, which give us a sense of which teams have strong underlying processes — and which are over- or underperforming. At the end of the table, you’ll find each team’s shooting and save percentages. A simple heat map highlights which clubs are excelling (green) or struggling (red). Note: all shot-share metrics are score- and venue-adjusted per Natural Stat Trick’s methodology

The Oilers’ underlying numbers

The Oilers are sitting tenth in the western conference, with fairly average underlying shot-share metrics. They’ve been rather inconsistent in controlling overall share shots and scoring chances.

The good news is (1) they’re not horrible, hovering around 50 percent when it comes to Corsi For percentage and Expected Goals. And (2) the coaching staff has everything they need to get these numbers up. It’s just a matter of being less stubborn with player deployment and tactical choices.

The shooting percentage should eventually improve, there’s just too much talent on the roster. It’s harder to have confidence in the team’s save percentage. Skinner currently ranks below league average levels when it comes to save percentage and goals-saved-above-average. It’s an ongoing issue for a few seasons now, documented extensively on this website, so it’s really up to management to address this.

Tactical adjustments

One rather simple adjustment is to have the glimmer twins on their own lines – which has proven to be a successful tactic for a few years now. Currently the team is posting a 43 percent Expected Goals for percentage when McDavid or Draisaitl aren’t on the ice. Which means it’s not going to end well if the coach keeps going to the Easter Line as often as he has. Hyman coming back in the next week or so will be a boost as well.

The other thing the team needs to change up is how they play when leading. Rather than playing conservatively and sitting back to avoid mistakes, the team should be pushing for more offence like the other top clubs do, including Carolina, Colorado and New Jersey. The best defence is playing more often in the opponents zone, and the team has the players to do this effectively. For whatever reason, the coaching staff has everyone playing a little too safe – it just comes across as panicky.

Evaluating individual players

To assess individual performances and results, I’ve put together the tables below sorted by ice time. Included is each player’s on-ice shot differential, expected goal differential and actual goal-differential. And for additional context, each player’s on-ice PDO is captured. A basic heat map is applied to show how players compare within their cohort.

First off, it’s important to address Bouchard here as he’s taken a significant amount of heat for some poor plays. No doubt, he’s had some rough moments. But it’s important to remember that the team tends to outshoot and outchance opponents when he’s on the ice. So it’s really just a matter of time before that on-ice goal differential improves. There’s enough of a track record with the player to trust the underlying process and believe that better results will come.

I’d be more worried about Nurse, who once again has struggled to have a positive impact on the team’s ability to generate scoring chances. If there’s anyone who should have their ice time dialed back, it’s probably him.

Up front, I’d be a little worried about the depth guys including Frederic. He’s had his moments, but there’s not a whole lot to his game, especially when he’s deployed as a center. And young guys like Howard and Savoie need to be given some rope here so management can know what they have in them. Their on-ice numbers have not been great, which isn’t overly surprising. But they need a long stretch with the star players to give them some reps. Again, not sure why the coaching staff has been so reluctant and stubborn when it comes to developing youth.

Thoughts

There’s always going to be a lot of noise around the Edmonton Oilers – it’s just the nature of professional sports. But it’s important to apply a critical lens when reading or listening to the analysis available. Yes, players are struggling and their results show it. But there’s also enough data and information available to help cut through some of the narratives. Simple stats like PDO are especially important as it can tell us if the player’s results are real or not, and what their future outcomes could look like. Use it often, and you can avoid a lot of mistakes in your evaluations.

Data: Natural Stat Trick